NFL

Daily Fantasy Football Range-of-Outcome Projections: Week 4

Fantasy football is a volatile game.

Sometimes, a shoelace tackle is the difference between a 10-yard catch and a 70-yard touchdown, and sometimes goal-line carries go to backup players.

It happens. A lot.

And, don't get me wrong -- median projections are quite valuable and capture the most-likely scenario. Setting your lineups based on 90th-percentile projections isn't the right way to handle things for a head-to-head lineup, but if you want to figure out which players can bust a slate open, then you'll have to embrace some risk.

That's why I've started simulating NFL weeks and seeing what happens when the slate is played out 1,000 times. Here are some things that popped at each position this week, based on my simulations, which factor in numberFire's projections and my own tweaks.

Update: The Kansas City Chiefs and New England Patriots game has been postponed and is expected to be played on Monday or Tuesday. Cam Newton has tested positive for COVID-19 and will not play this week.

Table Terms

FanDuel Salary: A player's main slate salary on FanDuel.
Median FDP: A player's median FanDuel projection across the 1,000 slate simulations.
Value: Projected median FanDuel points per $1,000 in salary. All quarterbacks generally have a 2.00 FanDuel-point-per-$1,000 rate at the low end, which implies 2-times value, or 2x value. On a full slate of 13 games, roughly 13 running backs tend to have a 2x value projection. On a full slate of 13 games, a small handful of receivers may get to a 2x median projection, and just more than 30 will be at 1.5x. On a full slate of 13 games, few tight ends will get to a 2x median value, and anything above 1.5x is generally a top-six projection. It's important to understand the different value expectations across positions.
25th Pct: The player's 25th-percentile FanDuel point projection, meant to show a low-end (or floor) outcome. Every player's true floor is zero.
75th Pct: The player's 75th-percentile FanDuel point projection, meant to show a somewhat attainable/projectable high-end (or ceiling) outcome without simply looking at true outlier performances.
FDP%: The frequency with which a player surpassed a certain raw projection threshold, meant to show a raw ceiling outcome. This doesn't adjust for salary and is a different value for each position.
Boom/Bust Ratio: The frequency with which a player had a "boom" game compared to a "bust" game based on historical, position-based value outcomes. For quarterbacks, this measures games with 2.75x value versus games with worse than 2x value. For running backs, wide receivers, and tight ends, it's 2x versus less than 1.5x. Think of it as a simple floor-versus-ceiling rating. Higher is better, and they should be compared only within the same position.

Quarterback

Simulation Results

Player FanDuel
Salary
Median
FDP
Value 25th
Pct
75th
Pct
25+
FDP%
Boom/Bust
Ratio
Lamar Jackson $9,600 24.3 2.54 18.6 29.7 46.9% 1.09
Russell Wilson $9,000 24.0 2.67 18.4 29.8 44.7% 1.51
Dak Prescott $8,200 23.9 2.92 18.6 29.3 45.3% 2.86
Josh Allen $8,600 22.5 2.62 17.2 27.8 37.9% 1.33
Kyler Murray $8,400 21.4 2.55 15.5 26.0 29.8% 1.00
Deshaun Watson $7,800 20.8 2.67 15.6 26.3 31.4% 1.56
Matthew Stafford $7,200 19.6 2.72 14.4 24.4 23.0% 1.50
Jared Goff $7,500 19.4 2.58 14.1 24.8 24.2% 1.18
Joe Burrow $7,400 19.4 2.62 14.3 24.5 23.1% 1.32
Drew Brees $7,700 18.4 2.40 13.6 24.1 22.5% 0.83
Gardner Minshew $7,400 18.4 2.49 13.7 23.6 19.0% 0.92
Teddy Bridgewater $6,800 18.0 2.65 12.9 23.1 17.7% 1.34
Ryan Fitzpatrick $7,100 17.7 2.50 12.8 22.8 17.7% 1.02
Kirk Cousins $6,800 17.3 2.54 12.5 22.7 16.3% 1.18
Derek Carr $6,900 16.7 2.42 11.7 21.9 12.5% 0.85
Baker Mayfield $7,000 15.9 2.28 11.1 20.9 11.2% 0.61
Tom Brady $7,300 15.8 2.16 10.8 20.7 11.0% 0.45
Daniel Jones $6,600 15.0 2.27 10.0 20.2 10.0% 0.65
Justin Herbert $6,700 14.5 2.17 9.5 19.1 7.9% 0.49
Nick Foles $7,100 14.3 2.01 9.1 19.4 6.6% 0.35
Philip Rivers $6,700 14.2 2.11 9.4 18.6 7.1% 0.41
Dwayne Haskins $6,500 12.0 1.85 7.4 16.9 3.8% 0.27


Observations
With all of the high over/unders on the slate, a lot of quarterbacks rate out pretty well from a median projections standpoint. Despite Lamar Jackson's top-tier median projection, the salary of $9,600 is a bit high for my liking with his status as a heavy favorite against the Washington Football Team. That said, he's probably an elite tournament play.

The best floor/ceiling rating by far belongs to Dak Prescott in the simulations in his game against the Cleveland Browns. Dak is near the top of my list, but I'm intrigued by Russell Wilson, Deshaun Watson, and Joe Burrow at their salaries, as well. Dak still could be a cash-game consideration. The data suggests he should be.

Kirk Cousins is affordable at $6,800, but I'm not going to go there and would prefer Matthew Stafford or Ryan Fitzpatrick if really saving salary.

Running Back

Simulation Results

Player FanDuel
Salary
Median
FDP
Value 25th
Pct
75th
Pct
20+
FDP%
Boom/Bust
Ratio
Alvin Kamara $8,800 20.4 2.32 15.3 26.5 51.9% 3.48
Ezekiel Elliott $9,000 19.4 2.15 13.6 25.1 47.4% 2.31
Josh Jacobs $8,000 18.1 2.26 12.1 23.1 39.5% 2.39
Dalvin Cook $8,700 18.0 2.07 12.2 23.8 41.2% 1.93
Kenyan Drake $7,000 15.9 2.28 10.6 21.2 29.5% 2.51
Jonathan Taylor $7,500 15.0 2.00 9.3 20.3 26.4% 1.52
Darrell Henderson $6,400 15.0 2.34 9.7 20.4 27.0% 2.48
Austin Ekeler $6,900 14.8 2.15 9.8 19.8 24.1% 1.99
Joe Mixon $6,800 14.7 2.15 9.5 19.7 23.7% 2.02
James Robinson $6,600 13.6 2.06 8.3 19.1 21.2% 1.65
Nick Chubb $8,300 13.2 1.59 8.4 18.4 19.9% 0.71
David Johnson $6,700 12.8 1.92 8.0 17.5 14.9% 1.28
Ronald Jones $5,600 12.8 2.29 8.0 17.4 15.6% 2.19
Mike Davis $6,300 12.5 1.98 8.2 16.7 13.4% 1.58
David Montgomery $5,800 12.0 2.07 7.4 16.5 11.3% 1.68
Myles Gaskin $5,400 12.0 2.22 7.5 16.5 12.1% 2.05
Kareem Hunt $5,900 11.5 1.95 6.7 16.1 11.8% 1.41
Devin Singletary $6,000 11.5 1.91 6.9 15.7 9.0% 1.29
Chris Carson $7,900 11.3 1.42 6.6 15.9 10.2% 0.49
Mark Ingram $6,500 11.1 1.70 7.2 15.9 11.1% 0.93
Adrian Peterson $5,500 9.8 1.78 6.0 13.7 3.6% 1.08
Antonio Gibson $5,500 9.5 1.72 5.5 13.2 3.5% 0.96
Latavius Murray $4,900 9.2 1.87 5.3 13.0 3.1% 1.20
Devonta Freeman $5,400 8.6 1.59 4.8 12.7 2.9% 0.81
Nyheim Hines $5,200 7.8 1.50 3.9 11.4 1.9% 0.62
LeSean McCoy $4,600 7.7 1.66 3.6 11.2 1.0% 0.88
Carlos Hyde $5,700 7.6 1.33 4.2 11.3 1.0% 0.42
Joshua Kelley $5,300 7.3 1.37 3.5 10.9 1.3% 0.48
Zack Moss $5,100 7.2 1.41 3.6 10.9 0.9% 0.55
Reggie Bonnafon $4,600 6.8 1.48 3.4 10.6 0.9% 0.66
Duke Johnson $4,700 6.7 1.43 3.0 10.2 0.4% 0.58
Malcolm Brown $5,300 6.4 1.20 2.8 9.9 0.1% 0.35


Observations
Running back is loaded this week, yet it's still Alvin Kamara rating out at the top of the list. Josh Jacobs is second in floor/ceiling rating, but I'm going to look past that and go with Ezekiel Elliott as my preferred play in a much better game environment.

Ronald Jones pops here, with the assumption that Leonard Fournette is out. But David Johnson and Kenyan Drake are each in elite game scripts.

Based on how everyone sims out, I'm still ranking my favorite backs as such: Kamara and Elliott with a drop now that Clyde Edwards-Helaire is off the slate.

Myles Gaskin and Ronald Jones -- among plenty others such has Joe Mixon, Mike Davis, James Robinson and Darrell Henderson -- are very viable, but we need to be spending down for a purpose. High-salaried wide receivers and tight ends are not nearly as safe as the high-salaried running backs.

Wide Receiver

Simulation Results

Player FanDuel
Salary
Median
FDP
Value 25th
Pct
75th
Pct
20+
FDP%
Boom/Bust
Ratio
Tyler Lockett $7,500 14.9 1.99 10.2 19.9 24.9% 1.66
D.K. Metcalf $6,900 13.7 1.98 8.7 18.5 16.8% 1.55
Kenny Golladay $7,300 13.5 1.84 9.1 18.2 17.1% 1.31
Amari Cooper $7,100 13.4 1.88 8.7 18.0 16.9% 1.28
Mike Evans $7,400 13.2 1.78 8.8 17.9 15.9% 1.07
Odell Beckham $6,600 13.0 1.97 8.7 17.4 14.8% 1.51
Keenan Allen $6,900 12.9 1.88 9.0 17.3 13.7% 1.33
Allen Robinson $7,000 12.9 1.84 8.8 17.4 12.6% 1.23
Adam Thielen $7,100 12.9 1.81 8.2 17.8 15.5% 1.17
D.J. Moore $6,800 12.8 1.88 8.1 17.3 12.4% 1.29
Robert Woods $6,700 12.7 1.90 8.1 17.6 14.6% 1.27
Stefon Diggs $7,000 12.3 1.75 8.1 17.2 13.5% 1.04
Cooper Kupp $7,200 12.2 1.69 7.9 16.2 11.2% 0.88
Tyler Boyd $6,000 12.0 1.99 7.8 16.4 11.3% 1.61
DeVante Parker $6,500 11.5 1.77 7.2 15.5 7.6% 1.02
A.J. Green $5,700 11.1 1.94 6.8 15.0 6.8% 1.42
Robby Anderson $6,200 11.1 1.79 6.7 14.8 6.7% 1.08
Will Fuller $6,100 11.0 1.80 6.8 15.2 8.1% 1.15
Emmanuel Sanders $5,800 10.9 1.87 6.4 14.9 8.0% 1.18
Marquise Brown $6,300 10.8 1.72 6.7 14.7 5.7% 0.92
Tre'Quan Smith $5,300 10.8 2.04 6.8 15.0 5.4% 1.62
Michael Gallup $5,900 10.7 1.81 6.5 14.6 5.6% 1.07
Jarvis Landry $5,700 10.6 1.85 6.6 14.8 6.6% 1.18
Hunter Renfrow $5,300 10.4 1.96 6.1 14.6 5.3% 1.35
T.Y. Hilton $5,900 10.3 1.74 6.0 14.7 4.9% 0.99
Larry Fitzgerald $5,100 10.2 1.99 6.1 14.0 4.3% 1.50
CeeDee Lamb $5,600 10.1 1.81 6.4 13.8 4.9% 1.09
Curtis Samuel $5,100 10.1 1.98 6.3 13.9 4.7% 1.44
Marvin Jones $6,000 9.9 1.66 6.0 14.1 3.9% 0.87
D.J. Chark $6,800 9.9 1.46 6.4 14.0 4.4% 0.53
Darius Slayton $5,500 9.7 1.76 5.7 13.1 2.8% 0.97
Preston Williams $5,500 9.7 1.76 5.8 13.6 3.7% 1.01
Justin Jefferson $5,400 9.6 1.79 5.6 13.9 4.5% 1.09
Andy Isabella $5,000 9.2 1.84 5.2 12.7 2.5% 1.13
Golden Tate $5,300 8.9 1.68 5.4 12.3 1.8% 0.88
DeAndre Hopkins $8,700 8.8 1.01 5.4 12.8 2.6% 0.09
Cole Beasley $5,100 8.7 1.71 5.3 12.5 2.2% 0.95
John Brown $6,100 8.6 1.41 5.0 12.3 2.2% 0.47
Anthony Miller $5,500 8.2 1.49 4.6 11.8 1.4% 0.60
Tee Higgins $5,300 8.1 1.53 4.3 11.6 1.5% 0.67
Danny Amendola $5,100 8.0 1.58 4.6 11.5 1.9% 0.72
Brandin Cooks $5,300 8.0 1.51 4.4 11.3 1.2% 0.62
Randall Cobb $5,400 7.7 1.43 4.2 11.3 0.9% 0.53
Laviska Shenault $5,200 7.6 1.46 4.1 11.6 1.7% 0.63
Zach Pascal $5,000 7.5 1.50 4.0 11.1 1.4% 0.64
Dontrelle Inman $5,000 7.5 1.50 4.2 10.7 0.9% 0.62
Scotty Miller $5,000 7.3 1.46 3.9 10.6 0.3% 0.58
Keelan Cole $5,600 7.0 1.25 3.2 10.2 0.6% 0.30


Observations
The best floor/ceiling ratings belong to Tyler Boyd, Mike Evans, D.K. Metcalf, Odell Beckham, and DeAndre Hopkins. That's not a bad list to look to in cash games, really. I'd throw Tyler Lockett and D.J. Moore into the conversation, and they're top-10 guys in boom/bust rate in the sims.

Receiver is pretty wide open. The top of the list has some big names but not a ton. This makes the value at running back far less appealing.

Some strong 75th-percentile outcomes among wideouts below $6,500 belong to Boyd, Julian Edelman, DeVante Parker, Will Fuller, Robby Anderson, Michael Gallup, Jarvis Landry, Justin Jefferson, and Marquise Brown.

Tight End

Simulation Results

Player FanDuel
Salary
Median
FDP
Value 25th
Pct
75th
Pct
10+
FDP%
Boom/Bust
Ratio
Darren Waller $6,700 13.6 2.02 9.2 18.2 42.5% 1.72
Mark Andrews $7,400 12.6 1.70 8.5 17.0 35.2% 0.90
Logan Thomas $4,900 9.6 1.95 5.8 12.9 15.3% 1.43
Michael Gesicki $5,700 9.2 1.61 5.7 13.0 15.5% 0.77
Hunter Henry $6,100 9.2 1.50 5.5 13.1 14.7% 0.57
Evan Engram $5,600 9.2 1.64 5.5 12.8 14.5% 0.76
Tyler Higbee $6,000 8.6 1.43 4.8 12.8 12.8% 0.55
T.J. Hockenson $5,400 8.1 1.50 4.7 11.9 9.8% 0.64
Austin Hooper $5,100 7.8 1.53 4.2 11.2 9.0% 0.67
Mo Alie-Cox $5,300 6.7 1.26 3.1 10.0 4.6% 0.37
Greg Olsen $5,000 6.6 1.31 3.6 10.0 5.0% 0.43
Rob Gronkowski $5,200 5.7 1.11 2.7 8.8 1.8% 0.25
Dalton Schultz $4,900 5.6 1.15 2.5 8.7 2.5% 0.28
Jimmy Graham $5,300 5.6 1.05 2.6 8.6 2.2% 0.21
Jordan Akins $4,900 5.1 1.05 2.2 8.4 1.5% 0.27
Dan Arnold $4,300 5.0 1.16 1.8 8.0 1.1% 0.31
Tyler Eifert $4,800 4.8 1.01 2.0 8.0 1.4% 0.22


Observations
Tight end always sucks from a predictability standpoint due to low volume. At the top, just one tight end stands out from a floor/ceiling standpoint, and that is Darren Waller, now that Travis Kelce is off the main slate.

The top tight end to me -- salary considered -- is Mike Gesicki based on his projections. The Miami Dolphins should have to throw a lot against the Seattle Seahawks, and Gesicki leads all tight ends in air yards share. Logan Thomas now looks like a promising salary-saving option.