FanDuel Single-Game Daily Fantasy Football Helper: Week 6 Monday Night (Chiefs at Bills)
Two of the best teams in the AFC tangle in the opening game of Week 6's Monday night doubleheader as the Buffalo Bills host the Kansas City Chiefs.
On Online Sportsbook, Kansas City is a 4.5-point favorite with a total sitting all the way up at 57.5 points -- implying a 31.0-26.5 win for the Chiefs.
The betting public is still on the over. Per our oddsFire tool, 65% of the money on the total and 71% of the bets are backing the over. So all signs point to us getting a crap ton of points -- and fantasy fun -- in this one.
More importantly, though, the public is all over KC. Of the bets on the spread, 87% of the bets and a whopping 93% of the money is on the Chiefs. Our model, however, likes the Bills more than the betting public does, forecasting a close 26.04-24.59 win for the Chiefs. That's useful information to have when building lineups for this slate.
For those unfamiliar, single-game slates feature five flex spots with identical scoring to the main slate. However, kickers are included in these contests, and there is an "MVP" roster slot. The MVP receives 1.5-times his total fantasy points, making this spot crucial.
This past offseason our Brandon Gdula did a deep dive on single-game strategy. It's worth checking out before you make your lineups.
Patrick Mahomes, Chiefs ($16,500)
Why start anywhere else?
Patrick Mahomes has a huge ceiling and is capable of reaching it against a Buffalo defense that has allowed the fourth most FanDuel points per game to signal callers.
I'm not going to spend much time here. You know what Mahomes can do. The biggest question is whether or not you should put him in the MVP spot. I lean toward no. Yes, that's terrifying in a game in which KC is implied to score 31 points. But Mahomes figures to be the chalk MVP pick, and there are plenty of other high-upside guys we can put in that slot. I won't get too weird at MVP on this slate, but I probably won't use Mahomes there very much.
Josh Allen, Bills ($16,000)
Josh Allen is my favorite MVP play.
Allen had a stinker on national TV on Tuesday night, tossing two picks and looking all sorts of uncomfortable against the Tennessee Titans. While I don't expect him to fly under the radar on this slate by any means, I think Mahomes will be the more popular MVP choice, which makes me want to use Allen there.
Prior to Week 5, Allen had totaled 28.18, 34.50, 31.24 and 25.42 FanDuel points in his first four games. And he still notched 16.32 fantasy points versus the Titans in what was probably a floor game. Allen always offers rushing upside, and the Bills are passing at the 11th-highest rate this season (62.58%).
With the betting public loving KC and our model projecting the Chiefs for nearly five fewer points than oddsmakers are, Allen could be a great leverage play in the MVP spot.
Clyde Edwards-Helaire, Chiefs ($13,500)
If I'm not using Allen at MVP, I'll probably opt for Clyde Edwards-Helaire.
CEH has played between 60% and 73% of the snaps in every game this year, and he's seen at least 18 opportunities (carries and targets) each week. That may be coming to an end after this week with Le'Veon Bell coming to town, but the rookie should have a secure role in this one.
With only one touchdown on the year, CEH has been getting his fantasy points via total yards, averaging 102.6 per game. That gives him a tasty floor, and he's seen 25 targets across the past four games, so the upside is there, too.
If CEH can get into the end zone, he'd likely push for 20-plus FanDuel points, and in what's expected to be a shootout, I am going to have a lot of lineups with him as my MVP.
Stefon Diggs, Bills ($14,000)
Stefon Diggs was the lone bright spot for Buffalo in Week 5, amassing 16 targets and catching 10 of them for 106 scoreless yards. Diggs is being given elite usage in his first season with the Bills, garnering a 27.0% target share and 32.0% air yards share. He's played at least 92% of the snaps in three of five weeks.
The matchup versus KC isn't a good one as the Chiefs are allowing the sixth fewest FanDuel points per game to receivers. But Diggs' usage and big-play ability make him awfully enticing in a game in which Buffalo is expected to see a negative game script. With Zack Moss ($7,500) expected back, neither Moss nor Devin Singletary ($11,500) is all that appealing, so Diggs is chalk worth swallowing on this slate.
I like Allen-Diggs stacks, and Diggs is the logical way to run it back if you're stacking Kansas City.
Travis Kelce ($13,000) and Tyreek Hill ($14,500), Chiefs
Travis Kelce hasn't had a huge game yet this season, but it could come here as the Bills are surrendering the third most FanDuel points per game to tight ends.
Kelce has played at least 88% of the snaps in three of five games -- never dipping below 77% for the year -- and both his air yards share (23.3%) and target share (23.8%) are excellent marks.
Tyreek Hill has the talent to shred a single-game slate. With that said, it hasn't really been happening for him of late. Hill hasn't gone for more than 100 yards in 10 straight regular-season games. In that span, he's surpassed 80 yards just once. Counting last year's playoffs, Tyreek has only one game of 100-plus yards (the Super Bowl) in his past 13. And his 18.5% target share this year isn't all that sexy.
Buuuut Hill does have a 36.8% air yards share in 2020, and one long tuddie from him could flip this slate on its head.
I'll have more Kelce than Hill, but both are viable MVP options.
Demarcus Robinson, Chiefs ($6,500)
Really, we could talk about every skill-position guy for KC -- they're all in play -- but you need to save salary somewhere.
Demarcus Robinson can help.
With Sammy Watkins out, I expect Mecole Hardman ($8,500) to be a popular target on this slate, but Robinson has played more snaps than Hardman this season, though Hardman has had a slight edge in the previous two outings. Robinson has at least four targets in three games, and while he's got only six catches and 48 yards on the season, the targets are something we can get behind at this salary.
