NFL Analytics: Positional Success Rates Allowed Through Week 6
As fantasy football players, we need to study matchups each and every week.
How exactly to determine the best matchups can be tricky, but rather than look just at yards per carry or passing yards per game allowed, I like to lean on numberFire's Net Expected Points (NEP) metric in various ways. NEP indicates expected points gained for a team's offense -- or denied by a team's defense.
Here's a good example of why it matters. A 15-yard catch looks great on paper, especially compared to a 5-yard catch. But if the 15-yarder comes on 3rd-and-20, it's not very impactful. If the shorter gain comes on 3rd-and-2, it's a significant play and boosts the offense's scoring expectation. It was a success.
Adding this context can show us which teams defend positions well and which teams may have their traditional stats inflated by plays that don't matter as much as others.
You can view our overall, opponent-adjusted passing and rushing defense numbers on our team rankings page, but here's a breakdown of Success Rates allowed to the various positions across the NFL through Week 6's games.
For defensive purposes, lower success rates and expected points numbers allowed are better. Tables are sorted as such.
Quarterback Pass Defense
| Defense | Passing NEP/ Drop Back |
Rank | Passing Success Rate |
Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chicago Bears | -0.02 | 4 | 41.0% | 1 |
| San Francisco 49ers | 0.07 | 11 | 42.3% | 2 |
| Tampa Bay Buccaneers | -0.05 | 1 | 43.0% | 3 |
| Pittsburgh Steelers | -0.02 | 5 | 44.1% | 4 |
| Baltimore Ravens | -0.03 | 3 | 44.5% | 5 |
| Arizona Cardinals | 0.08 | 12 | 44.7% | 6 |
| Indianapolis Colts | -0.01 | 6 | 45.1% | 7 |
| Los Angeles Rams | 0.00 | 7 | 45.7% | 8 |
| Kansas City Chiefs | 0.00 | 8 | 45.8% | 9 |
| Washington Football Team | 0.10 | 14 | 45.8% | 10 |
| Dallas Cowboys | 0.24 | 25 | 46.3% | 11 |
| Detroit Lions | 0.17 | 16 | 46.6% | 12 |
| Denver Broncos | 0.01 | 9 | 46.8% | 13 |
| Miami Dolphins | -0.04 | 2 | 46.9% | 14 |
| Philadelphia Eagles | 0.18 | 18 | 48.0% | 15 |
| Cincinnati Bengals | 0.18 | 19 | 48.1% | 16 |
| Carolina Panthers | 0.10 | 13 | 48.7% | 17 |
| Las Vegas Raiders | 0.29 | 28 | 48.9% | 18 |
| Cleveland Browns | 0.17 | 17 | 49.0% | 19 |
| Los Angeles Chargers | 0.16 | 15 | 49.5% | 20 |
| New Orleans Saints | 0.22 | 21 | 50.0% | 21 |
| Minnesota Vikings | 0.35 | 30 | 50.2% | 22 |
| New England Patriots | 0.02 | 10 | 50.3% | 23 |
| Seattle Seahawks | 0.24 | 24 | 50.8% | 24 |
| Green Bay Packers | 0.19 | 20 | 52.0% | 25 |
| Buffalo Bills | 0.23 | 23 | 52.9% | 26 |
| New York Giants | 0.22 | 22 | 53.5% | 27 |
| Houston Texans | 0.32 | 29 | 54.3% | 28 |
| New York Jets | 0.28 | 27 | 55.4% | 29 |
| Atlanta Falcons | 0.38 | 32 | 55.6% | 30 |
| Tennessee Titans | 0.26 | 26 | 55.9% | 31 |
| Jacksonville Jaguars | 0.35 | 31 | 56.3% | 32 |
| NFL Average | 0.14 | 48.6% |
Running Back Rush Defense
| Defense | Rushing NEP/ Carry |
Rank | Rushing Success Rate |
Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pittsburgh Steelers | -0.21 | 1 | 25.9% | 1 |
| Tampa Bay Buccaneers | -0.18 | 2 | 31.7% | 2 |
| Baltimore Ravens | -0.11 | 5 | 31.9% | 3 |
| Philadelphia Eagles | -0.06 | 8 | 33.1% | 4 |
| New York Jets | 0.03 | 16 | 34.5% | 5 |
| Denver Broncos | -0.09 | 6 | 36.9% | 6 |
| Chicago Bears | 0.05 | 20 | 37.3% | 7 |
| New Orleans Saints | 0.01 | 14 | 38.0% | 8 |
| Indianapolis Colts | -0.02 | 11 | 38.4% | 9 |
| New York Giants | 0.03 | 15 | 38.4% | 10 |
| San Francisco 49ers | -0.14 | 3 | 38.5% | 11 |
| Seattle Seahawks | -0.06 | 9 | 39.0% | 12 |
| Jacksonville Jaguars | 0.04 | 17 | 40.1% | 13 |
| Arizona Cardinals | 0.00 | 13 | 41.0% | 14 |
| Tennessee Titans | 0.09 | 23 | 41.1% | 15 |
| Washington Football Team | -0.01 | 12 | 41.1% | 16 |
| Atlanta Falcons | -0.12 | 4 | 42.0% | 17 |
| Los Angeles Chargers | -0.08 | 7 | 42.6% | 18 |
| Cincinnati Bengals | 0.10 | 24 | 43.5% | 19 |
| Dallas Cowboys | 0.13 | 28 | 45.8% | 20 |
| Kansas City Chiefs | 0.09 | 22 | 45.8% | 20 |
| Green Bay Packers | 0.18 | 29 | 46.4% | 22 |
| Carolina Panthers | 0.10 | 25 | 46.5% | 23 |
| Los Angeles Rams | 0.08 | 21 | 46.8% | 24 |
| Houston Texans | 0.23 | 30 | 47.2% | 25 |
| New England Patriots | -0.03 | 10 | 47.8% | 26 |
| Buffalo Bills | 0.11 | 26 | 47.9% | 27 |
| Minnesota Vikings | 0.04 | 18 | 49.4% | 28 |
| Cleveland Browns | 0.04 | 19 | 50.0% | 29 |
| Detroit Lions | 0.24 | 31 | 52.5% | 30 |
| Las Vegas Raiders | 0.25 | 32 | 53.1% | 31 |
| Miami Dolphins | 0.11 | 27 | 53.8% | 32 |
| NFL Average | 0.03 | 42.3% |
Receiving Defense vs. Position
(This table is sorted by target success rate allowed to wide receivers.)
| Defense | RB Target Success Rate |
Rank | WR Target Success Rate |
Rank | TE Target Success Rate |
Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kansas City Chiefs | 56.1% | 28 | 46.6% | 1 | 57.1% | 21 |
| San Francisco 49ers | 38.2% | 9 | 47.0% | 2 | 51.3% | 12 |
| Washington Football Team | 44.4% | 16 | 48.5% | 3 | 65.1% | 28 |
| Chicago Bears | 30.0% | 1 | 49.2% | 4 | 48.9% | 8 |
| Arizona Cardinals | 47.7% | 19 | 49.6% | 5 | 50.0% | 9 |
| Miami Dolphins | 58.1% | 30 | 50.0% | 6 | 54.5% | 17 |
| Carolina Panthers | 54.5% | 26 | 50.5% | 7 | 51.1% | 11 |
| Baltimore Ravens | 36.5% | 4 | 52.1% | 8 | 63.8% | 27 |
| Tampa Bay Buccaneers | 44.2% | 15 | 52.1% | 9 | 48.6% | 6 |
| Green Bay Packers | 66.7% | 32 | 52.8% | 10 | 60.7% | 26 |
| Indianapolis Colts | 51.5% | 24 | 52.9% | 11 | 38.9% | 1 |
| Denver Broncos | 48.6% | 20 | 54.4% | 12 | 48.6% | 6 |
| Las Vegas Raiders | 46.2% | 18 | 54.4% | 13 | 54.8% | 18 |
| Cincinnati Bengals | 51.4% | 23 | 54.8% | 14 | 51.8% | 13 |
| Detroit Lions | 37.5% | 8 | 55.0% | 15 | 42.9% | 3 |
| Pittsburgh Steelers | 42.3% | 11 | 55.4% | 16 | 45.0% | 5 |
| Los Angeles Rams | 42.0% | 10 | 56.3% | 17 | 52.8% | 15 |
| Cleveland Browns | 43.6% | 14 | 56.7% | 18 | 50.0% | 9 |
| Minnesota Vikings | 42.5% | 12 | 57.1% | 19 | 76.7% | 32 |
| Philadelphia Eagles | 37.1% | 7 | 57.1% | 19 | 65.9% | 30 |
| New Orleans Saints | 56.3% | 29 | 57.5% | 21 | 57.4% | 22 |
| Buffalo Bills | 50.0% | 21 | 57.7% | 22 | 60.0% | 23 |
| Dallas Cowboys | 32.1% | 2 | 58.0% | 23 | 56.4% | 20 |
| Atlanta Falcons | 52.7% | 25 | 58.9% | 24 | 65.3% | 29 |
| Los Angeles Chargers | 36.5% | 4 | 59.1% | 25 | 52.6% | 14 |
| New England Patriots | 50.0% | 21 | 60.2% | 26 | 40.9% | 2 |
| New York Giants | 54.5% | 26 | 60.7% | 27 | 54.8% | 18 |
| Seattle Seahawks | 36.0% | 3 | 61.3% | 28 | 44.8% | 4 |
| New York Jets | 59.1% | 31 | 62.2% | 29 | 52.9% | 16 |
| Tennessee Titans | 43.3% | 13 | 62.7% | 30 | 60.0% | 23 |
| Jacksonville Jaguars | 45.2% | 17 | 62.8% | 31 | 60.0% | 23 |
| Houston Texans | 36.8% | 6 | 66.1% | 32 | 66.0% | 31 |
| NFL Average | 46.1% | 55.7% | 55.1% |
