FanDuel Single-Game Daily Fantasy Football Helper: Week 8 Sunday Night (Cowboys at Eagles)
While this Sunday night matchup doesn't give us a clash between two top-tier teams, it is an important game in the someone-has-to-win-it NFC East.
On Online Sportsbook, the Philadelphia Eagles are 11.5-point favorites over the Dallas Cowboys, and the total is set at 42.5 points -- implying a 27.00-15.50 win for Philly.
Per our oddsFire tool, the betting public is all over the Eagles. On the spread, a whopping 83% of the money and 75% of the bets are backing Philadelphia. With the total very low -- especially by 2020 standards -- some sharp money is coming in on the over, with 65% of the bets on the total and 77% of the money on the total taking the over.
For those unfamiliar, single-game slates feature five flex spots with identical scoring to the main slate. However, kickers are included in these contests, and there is an "MVP" roster slot. The MVP receives 1.5-times his total fantasy points, making this spot crucial.
This past offseason our Brandon Gdula did a deep dive on single-game strategy. It's worth checking out before you make your lineups.
Carson Wentz, Eagles ($16,000)
Stating the obvious -- Carson Wentz is the much more appealing of the two signal callers as Ben DiNucci ($13,500) is making his first career start for Dallas.
Wentz has upped his fantasy production the past two weeks, totaling 29.42 fantasy points versus the Baltimore Ravens and 28.76 points against the New York Giants. The Cowboys present a dream matchup. We have them as the league's worst defense, per our schedule-adjusted metrics, and they're permitting the 10th-most FanDuel points per game to quarterbacks.
We project Wentz for 18.5 FanDuel points, 3.8 more than anyone else on the slate. He's clearly a great play, but I'm not going to use him in the MVP spot that much for game-theory reasons.
While DiNucci is an unknown, he'll likely be less popular than the normal quarterback is on a single-game slate, and he showed running ability in his final college season with 569 rushing yards. We have him going for 13.7 FanDuel points.
Boston Scott, Eagles ($10,500)
The guy I'll use the most in the MVP slot is Boston Scott. He's going to be a popular player on this slate due to his expected workload and friendly salary, but I don't think he will get as much MVP love as Wentz does.
As the lead back a week ago, Scott logged a 69% snap rate and handled 15 of 20 running back touches. He racked up 92 total yards -- 46 apiece rushing and receiving -- and caught a late touchdown on his way to 16.7 FanDuel points.
Dallas has surrendered the seventh-most FanDuel points per game to running backs, and with Philly expected to see a positive game script, this is a smash spot for Scott. Our model pegs him to put up 13.6 FanDuel points.
Ezekiel Elliott, Cowboys ($15,000)
Ezekiel Elliott is going to get a lot of touches, and this may be a chance to roster him at a lower-than-usual draft percentage. With Dallas carrying a lowly 15.50-point implied total. I'd be pretty surprised if Zeke was a more popular MVP pick than Scott or Wentz is.
But our projections like Elliott in this game, forecasting him for 14.7 FanDuel points, the most on the slate other than Wentz. Zack Martin's expected return will likely be a boost to this running game, and Philly's defense is the 11th-worst by our numbers.
The concern with Zeke is that he gets game-scripted out like he did in Week 7. While that's a very real possibility, Zeke could pop here at a modest -- by his usual standards -- draft percentage.
Michael Gallup, Cowboys ($11,000)
I like this spot for Michael Gallup. With Amari Cooper ($14,500) likely to see a lot of Darius Slay, the Dallas pass game could go through Gallup and CeeDee Lamb ($12,000). Gallup leads the Cowboys' wideouts in snaps for the year, and he saw a 91% snap rate in Week 7 -- much higher than both Cooper (75%) and Lamb (55%).
The negative is that Gallup is a very distant third in targets among Dallas' receiver trio, recording just 36 targets for the season. He does see a good amount of air yards, though, holding a 24.6% air yards share that is relatively equal to Cooper's and Lamb's.
Gallup is the Dallas receiver I'll have the most of on this slate.
Greg Ward, Eagles ($7,500)
Travis Fulgham ($13,000) has been Philadelphia's top wideout, and first-rounder Jalen Reagor ($8,500) is expected to make his return from injury in this one. But I think Greg Ward is still a decent play for this game.
Ward played 95% of the snaps last week, and while Reagor's return will surely knock down that number, it's not a lock Reagor jumps into a high-volume gig in his first game back -- especially in a game Philly could win comfortably.
We have Ward projected for only 6.2 FanDuel points. But on a slate that's super thin on low-salary options, Ward is a respectable darth throw, though you may not have to dip down to this salary range if you fade Zeke and Cooper.