NFL Analytics: Positional Success Rates Allowed Through Week 8
As fantasy football players, we need to study matchups each and every week.
How exactly to determine the best matchups can be tricky, but rather than look just at yards per carry or passing yards per game allowed, I like to lean on numberFire's Net Expected Points (NEP) metric in various ways. NEP indicates expected points gained for a team's offense -- or denied by a team's defense.
Here's a good example of why it matters. A 15-yard catch looks great on paper, especially compared to a 5-yard catch. But if the 15-yarder comes on 3rd-and-20, it's not very impactful. If the shorter gain comes on 3rd-and-2, it's a significant play and boosts the offense's scoring expectation. It was a success.
Adding this context can show us which teams defend positions well and which teams may have their traditional stats inflated by plays that don't matter as much as others.
You can view our overall, opponent-adjusted passing and rushing defense numbers on our team rankings page, but here's a breakdown of Success Rates allowed to the various positions across the NFL through Week 8's games.
For defensive purposes, lower success rates and expected points numbers allowed are better. Tables are sorted as such.
Quarterback Pass Defense
| Defense | Passing NEP/ Drop Back |
Rank | Passing Success Rate |
Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chicago Bears | 0.02 | 8 | 42.6% | 1 |
| Pittsburgh Steelers | 0.00 | 7 | 42.9% | 2 |
| Kansas City Chiefs | -0.09 | 2 | 44.0% | 3 |
| Indianapolis Colts | -0.01 | 6 | 44.3% | 4 |
| Tampa Bay Buccaneers | -0.02 | 4 | 44.3% | 5 |
| Washington Football Team | 0.04 | 9 | 44.5% | 6 |
| San Francisco 49ers | 0.08 | 13 | 44.9% | 7 |
| Baltimore Ravens | -0.01 | 5 | 45.1% | 8 |
| Los Angeles Rams | -0.06 | 3 | 45.2% | 9 |
| Los Angeles Chargers | 0.14 | 15 | 45.3% | 10 |
| Dallas Cowboys | 0.16 | 17 | 45.5% | 11 |
| Arizona Cardinals | 0.08 | 12 | 46.0% | 12 |
| Philadelphia Eagles | 0.06 | 11 | 46.1% | 13 |
| Miami Dolphins | -0.10 | 1 | 47.1% | 14 |
| Denver Broncos | 0.04 | 10 | 47.7% | 15 |
| Las Vegas Raiders | 0.30 | 27 | 49.6% | 16 |
| Detroit Lions | 0.25 | 25 | 50.2% | 17 |
| Cincinnati Bengals | 0.22 | 22 | 50.3% | 18 |
| Minnesota Vikings | 0.33 | 29 | 50.6% | 19 |
| New Orleans Saints | 0.22 | 21 | 50.6% | 20 |
| Cleveland Browns | 0.19 | 19 | 50.6% | 21 |
| Buffalo Bills | 0.16 | 16 | 51.3% | 22 |
| Seattle Seahawks | 0.25 | 24 | 51.9% | 23 |
| Carolina Panthers | 0.17 | 18 | 52.2% | 24 |
| Atlanta Falcons | 0.34 | 30 | 52.5% | 25 |
| New England Patriots | 0.08 | 14 | 53.1% | 26 |
| New York Giants | 0.21 | 20 | 53.4% | 27 |
| Green Bay Packers | 0.23 | 23 | 53.9% | 28 |
| Houston Texans | 0.36 | 31 | 54.9% | 29 |
| Tennessee Titans | 0.26 | 26 | 55.2% | 30 |
| Jacksonville Jaguars | 0.37 | 32 | 55.4% | 31 |
| New York Jets | 0.32 | 28 | 57.3% | 32 |
| NFL Average | 0.14 | 49.0% |
Running Back Rush Defense
| Defense | Rushing NEP/ Carry |
Rank | Rushing Success Rate |
Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tampa Bay Buccaneers | -0.18 | 1 | 30.6% | 1 |
| Pittsburgh Steelers | -0.09 | 5 | 31.4% | 2 |
| Baltimore Ravens | -0.10 | 4 | 31.8% | 3 |
| New York Jets | -0.01 | 11 | 34.6% | 4 |
| Philadelphia Eagles | -0.08 | 6 | 35.3% | 5 |
| Indianapolis Colts | -0.05 | 7 | 36.8% | 6 |
| New York Giants | 0.00 | 14 | 37.5% | 7 |
| New Orleans Saints | -0.01 | 12 | 37.7% | 8 |
| Chicago Bears | 0.04 | 18 | 37.8% | 9 |
| Denver Broncos | -0.05 | 8 | 38.3% | 10 |
| Jacksonville Jaguars | 0.01 | 16 | 39.4% | 11 |
| San Francisco 49ers | -0.11 | 3 | 39.7% | 12 |
| Seattle Seahawks | 0.00 | 15 | 40.9% | 13 |
| Washington Football Team | -0.03 | 9 | 41.6% | 14 |
| Atlanta Falcons | -0.14 | 2 | 42.1% | 15 |
| Arizona Cardinals | 0.02 | 17 | 42.5% | 16 |
| Los Angeles Rams | 0.00 | 13 | 42.9% | 17 |
| Los Angeles Chargers | -0.01 | 10 | 43.1% | 18 |
| Green Bay Packers | 0.15 | 30 | 44.0% | 19 |
| Dallas Cowboys | 0.12 | 27 | 44.8% | 20 |
| Tennessee Titans | 0.10 | 23 | 45.3% | 21 |
| Carolina Panthers | 0.08 | 22 | 45.7% | 22 |
| Detroit Lions | 0.14 | 28 | 45.8% | 23 |
| Houston Texans | 0.20 | 32 | 47.1% | 24 |
| Cincinnati Bengals | 0.15 | 29 | 47.3% | 25 |
| Kansas City Chiefs | 0.07 | 21 | 47.4% | 26 |
| Las Vegas Raiders | 0.17 | 31 | 47.8% | 27 |
| Buffalo Bills | 0.11 | 26 | 47.9% | 28 |
| Minnesota Vikings | 0.05 | 19 | 48.6% | 29 |
| Cleveland Browns | 0.06 | 20 | 50.6% | 30 |
| New England Patriots | 0.10 | 25 | 52.3% | 31 |
| Miami Dolphins | 0.10 | 24 | 54.1% | 32 |
| NFL Average | 0.03 | 42.5% |
Receiving Defense vs. Position
(This table is sorted by target success rate allowed to wide receivers.)
| Defense | RB Target Success Rate |
Rank | WR Target Success Rate |
Rank | TE Target Success Rate |
Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kansas City Chiefs | 52.0% | 24 | 46.1% | 1 | 53.7% | 13 |
| Washington Football Team | 46.7% | 17 | 47.7% | 2 | 63.8% | 28 |
| Chicago Bears | 32.2% | 1 | 49.7% | 3 | 52.3% | 9 |
| Arizona Cardinals | 47.2% | 18 | 51.3% | 4 | 51.9% | 8 |
| Indianapolis Colts | 52.5% | 28 | 51.8% | 5 | 40.4% | 2 |
| Miami Dolphins | 60.4% | 30 | 51.8% | 6 | 45.7% | 4 |
| San Francisco 49ers | 40.4% | 8 | 52.3% | 7 | 50.0% | 6 |
| Baltimore Ravens | 35.1% | 3 | 52.4% | 8 | 65.4% | 31 |
| Los Angeles Rams | 41.9% | 10 | 52.6% | 9 | 56.5% | 19 |
| Tampa Bay Buccaneers | 45.3% | 13 | 53.2% | 10 | 49.2% | 5 |
| Philadelphia Eagles | 40.0% | 7 | 54.1% | 11 | 60.7% | 25 |
| Denver Broncos | 46.3% | 16 | 55.0% | 12 | 56.5% | 19 |
| Dallas Cowboys | 37.1% | 4 | 55.2% | 13 | 60.9% | 26 |
| Las Vegas Raiders | 45.5% | 14 | 55.6% | 14 | 55.3% | 17 |
| Atlanta Falcons | 50.8% | 22 | 55.7% | 15 | 63.9% | 29 |
| Pittsburgh Steelers | 38.7% | 5 | 55.8% | 16 | 38.9% | 1 |
| Green Bay Packers | 66.7% | 32 | 55.9% | 17 | 63.3% | 27 |
| Los Angeles Chargers | 32.4% | 2 | 55.9% | 18 | 52.9% | 12 |
| Detroit Lions | 43.8% | 11 | 56.0% | 19 | 55.0% | 15 |
| Carolina Panthers | 54.4% | 29 | 56.7% | 20 | 52.5% | 11 |
| Minnesota Vikings | 44.0% | 12 | 56.9% | 21 | 73.2% | 32 |
| Buffalo Bills | 52.3% | 25 | 57.3% | 22 | 58.5% | 21 |
| Cleveland Browns | 47.9% | 19 | 57.5% | 23 | 55.1% | 16 |
| Cincinnati Bengals | 50.0% | 20 | 57.6% | 24 | 54.3% | 14 |
| New York Giants | 52.5% | 27 | 60.0% | 25 | 59.6% | 23 |
| Seattle Seahawks | 45.5% | 14 | 60.8% | 26 | 43.9% | 3 |
| Tennessee Titans | 41.5% | 9 | 60.9% | 27 | 59.6% | 23 |
| New England Patriots | 51.6% | 23 | 61.2% | 28 | 50.0% | 6 |
| Jacksonville Jaguars | 50.0% | 20 | 61.7% | 29 | 55.6% | 18 |
| New Orleans Saints | 52.3% | 25 | 61.7% | 30 | 52.4% | 10 |
| New York Jets | 61.7% | 31 | 62.0% | 31 | 59.3% | 22 |
| Houston Texans | 39.5% | 6 | 65.2% | 32 | 64.2% | 30 |
| NFL Average | 46.8% | 55.9% | 55.4% |
