Week 9 Game Scripts to Target in Daily Fantasy Football

Welcome to the Game Scripts to Target article for the 2020 season. Each week we'll be taking a look at specific games to target for daily fantasy tournaments. Stacking games has always been a popular option in GPPs, as it allows you to reach for upside with the back-and-forth scoring.

Dissecting game scripts should be a huge part of your process when building lineups in NFL daily fantasy.

How will the game play out? Will it be high-paced with lots of potential for fantasy points to be scored? Does it set up well for one team, both teams, or neither? A running back could go from a lock one week as a home favorite to a complete avoid the next week as a double-digit road underdog because the expected game scripts in these contests are completely different.

Projecting these outcomes can be extremely difficult for one person. We can use the lines and totals to see what oddsmakers think and go from there. A great resource is numberFire's Daily Fantasy Matchup Heat Map, which provides betting related numbers -- implied totals, over/unders, and spreads -- as well as custom metrics that show how the teams will match up against each other. This gives us a much better handle on how games are likely to play out, and we can take advantage of that in our lineups.

Let's look at some game scripts to target for this week.

Denver Broncos at Atlanta Falcons

With an over/under set at 50.0, we are primed for some scoring with the Denver Broncos on the road to take on the Atlanta Falcons.

There are five games on the slate that have higher over/unders, but we aren't going to pretend that 50 isn't high or a game worth targeting. Both teams are in the bottom 10 of the league for the most FanDuel points allowed per game to opposing quarterbacks. On top of that, both teams are in the top 11 of the league for the fastest-paced teams, according to Football Outsiders. This is ideal for a high-scoring environment, teams who play fast, and aren't good on defense.

There are a few injury situations we need to take note of, as it opens up plenty of value which can help with roster construction on a slate with only 11 games.

Let's start with the Falcons, and specifically, wide receiver Calvin Ridley ($8,000), who is listed as day-to-day. Ridley hurt his foot in last Thursday's game against the Carolina Panthers, but it appears he is on track to play. Ridley leads the Falcons in targets (70) and touchdowns (6), which would leave a significant void if he were to be out.

Wide receiver Julio Jones ($8,200) saw 10 targets last week, which shouldn't come as a surprise since Ridley left early with that foot injury. Of course, if Ridley is out, Jones should be one of the best wide receiver options on the entire slate, since he can command 12 targets or more in any matchup. The Broncos are allowing 31.6 FanDuel points per game to opposing wide receivers, which is the 13th-worst in the league.

Going to Jones or Ridley is great, but if you are doing so, you should look to stack them with quarterback Matt Ryan ($7,600). This is a great spot to start the game stack, but it comes at a higher cost. If you need the savings and don't mind going with a bit a of a riskier option, tight end Hayden Hurst ($5,600) could be an option. He has seen six targets or more in four of his last five weeks but doesn't have nearly the same ceiling as Ridley or Jones.

Running back Todd Gurley ($6,900) isn't the most exciting option this season, but he has eight touchdowns on the year -- tied for the second-most in the league -- and has accounted for 80.39% of the Falcons' red zone rushes. He has a limited role in the passing game but can fall his way into some fantasy points via the red zone touchdowns.

The Broncos are led by quarterback Drew Lock ($7,200), who is coming off a 20-point FanDuel performance last week against the Los Angeles Chargers. Since returning from his injury, Lock has thrown 40 and 41 passing attempts, which is great from a fantasy perspective. This gives him a high-ceiling due to the volume of attempts and is just slightly less expensive compared to Matt Ryan.

One injury to note for the Broncos is wide receiver Tim Patrick ($5,300), who missed last week's game and was limited at practice on Wednesday. In his absence last week, Jerry Jeudy ($5,700) saw nine targets, which was tied for the highest on the team. This shouldn't come as a surprise, as he leads the team this season with 45.

Tight end Noah Fant ($5,800) also saw nine targets in last week's game, again, nothing surprising here as he has 43 on the season, which is the second-highest on the team. The Falcons are allowing the most (15.8) FanDuel points per game to opposing tight ends this season, putting Fant in a great spot.

If Patrick is out for this game, you could look to DaeSean Hamilton ($4,600) for some serious savings. He saw the third-most targets (6) on the team last week, along with playing on the most snaps (94%) among wide receivers. With Hamilton's savings, you could realistically go to a Ryan-Jones-Ridley (if he plays) stack and still have plenty of salary to spend elsewhere.

Seattle Seahawks at Buffalo Bills

There are plenty of offensive options on both sides, so let's talk about stacking the Seattle Seahawks at Buffalo Bills game.

The over/under is set at 55.0 for this game, which is the highest on the slate. We are looking at plenty of scoring in this game, plenty of fantasy points, and plenty of ways you can look to stack it.

Through the first four games of the season, Bills' quarterback Josh Allen ($8,200) was lighting the world on fire with his fantasy production. He posted 25 FanDuel points or more in each of his four games, then things took a turn downhill. In the next four games, Allen posted 18.3 FanDuel points or fewer in each one. It's been a roller coaster start to the year, but this is a spot for him to get back on track. The Seahawks are allowing 26.7 FanDuel points per game to opposing quarterbacks, which is dead last in the league.

We know the upside Allen can bring to your fantasy lineups due to his rushing potential, but he might not even need that this weekend since the matchup is so favorable. So, we're starting off with a quarterback in a great spot, but who can you look to pair him with?

The obvious answer is wide receiver Stefon Diggs ($7,600), who leads the Bills with targets (82), red zone targets (10), and touchdowns (5). He is their clear number one option and the ideal spot to start a Bills' stack -- not to mention the fact the Seahawks are allowing 47.0 FanDuel points per game to opposing wide receivers, which is dead last in the league.

After Diggs, the wide receiver situation for the Bills is a bit of a mess. Both Cole Beasley ($5,300) and John Brown ($5,500) are affordable options, but neither are consistent on a weekly basis. John Brown has an 11.9 average depth of target (aDOT) compared to Beasley's 6.4. We've always known Brown for being a deep-ball threat, which is great for tournaments but also carries a low floor. Beasley would be the safer option with his 41 receptions on the season -- second-highest on the Bills -- compared to only 15 for Brown.

The running back situation for the Bills is also very interesting, as we have two options we need to consider. Zack Moss ($5,800) and Devin Singletary ($5,800) have been splitting carries, for the most part, this season, highlighted by the fact they each had 14 carries last week. However, we may have gotten some clarity in fact that Moss got six red zone rushes compared to only one for Singletary.

A Bills' stack with Allen-Diggs-Moss gives you plenty of equity within their offense, along with it being modestly priced.

Now, we have to get to the Seahawks' side of things, because they also carry plenty of upside, but they can be far more expensive.

Quarterback Russell Wilson ($9,000) is the second-most expensive quarterback on the entire slate, but he is well worth it. He comes in with 21 FanDuel points or more in every single game and is always in play due to his potential ceiling. He has three touchdowns or more in six of his seven games this season. This is very simple -- play Wilson if you can afford his salary.

The question becomes, which of the receivers, Tyler Lockett ($7,400) or D.K. Metcalf ($8,100), should you play? Seemingly, they are alternating production on a weekly basis, but both have a massive ceiling. This week, Lockett is just a bit cheaper, and is that much easier to fit into a game stack. Those two players account for 49.8% of the Seattle target share, so in theory, a double-stack would capture most of the passing offense.

The backfield situation for the Seahawks is currently in limbo. Chris Carson ($7,600) didn't practice on Thursday after not playing last week. He could come down to a game-time decision on Sunday morning, so take note of that. When Carson was out last week, we saw DeeJay Dallas ($5,100) play on 79% of the snaps, have 23 total touches, and a total of 20.3 FanDuel points. Dallas clearly has control over the backfield ahead of Travis Homer ($5,200) and would be the one to trust.

This game has several options on both sides you can target for a stack and it will leave you will salary to spend elsewhere in your lineup.

Detroit Lions at Minnesota Vikings

This is one of the most interesting games on the slate, and we still don't have all the information we need.

Let's start with the most important/obvious storyline in this game. Detroit Lions quarterback Matthew Stafford ($7,500) has been placed on the COVID list. However, Stafford hasn't actually tested positive for COVID, as he was simply in close contact with someone who has. So, if Stafford continues to test negative leading up to Sunday, he will be allowed to play against the Minnesota Vikings. That is what we want to see happen, since this is an amazing spot for him and the entire Lions' offense.

But, if Stafford is unable to play, backup Chase Daniel ($6,000), who is the minimum salary for a quarterback, would be in line to start. The entire fantasy community would like to see Stafford start, since he offers more upside compared to Daniel.

Outside of their quarterback situation, the Lions will be without top wide receiver Kenny Golladay, who has been ruled out and dealing with a hip injury. This elevates Marvin Jones ($6,100) to the team's de facto number one wide receiver and in a fantastic spot since the Vikings are allowing the second-most (39.1) FanDuel points per game to opposing receivers this year.

Both Danny Amendola ($5,300) and Marvin Hall ($4,600) should be viable salary savers this week. Hall played 42 snaps last week and saw 7 targets -- all of which came after Golladay left the game. Paying down for Hall opens up A LOT for the rest of your lineup.

Tight end T.J. Hockenson ($6,000) continues to be impressive this season, having a touchdown or over 50 receiving yards in all seven of his games. Hockenson also leads the Lions in targets (43) and touchdowns (4). He's one of my favorites plays on the slate, and I will like him that much more if Stafford plays.

The Lions' backfield is a mess. No one player sees over 50% of the snaps in any given week. It's just no fun to try and project who will be the number one option. All I will say is this: Adrian Peterson ($5,300) is playing against his former team. #RevengeNarrative

For the Vikings, quarterback Kirk Cousins ($7,100) is in a strong spot with a modest salary. Cousins was highlighted by Austan Kas as a quarterback streaming option this week. It's pretty simple. He is a home favorite, has a high implied team total -- 27.50 -- and a soft matchup. He has multiple passing touchdowns in four of his seven games this season and is facing a Lions defense that's allowing 20.6 FanDuel points per game to opposing quarterbacks this season.

If you are going with Cousins, stacking him with wide receiver Adam Thielen ($7,700) is a no-brainer. Thielen leads the Vikings in target share (30.68%), red zone targets (10), and touchdowns (7). The Lions are allowing 30.1 FanDuel points per game to opposing wide receivers, so yeah, play Thielen this week.

You can always take a shot on Justin Jefferson ($6,800), who has the second-most targets (37) on the team but is far more inconsistent compared to Thielen.

We all saw what Dalvin Cook ($9,300) did last week against the Green Bay Packers, posting a total of 47.6 FanDuel points. He had 32 total touches, 163 yards on the ground, 63 yards in the air, and 4 touchdowns. The Packers are allowing 30.6 FanDuel points per game to opposing running backs, which is dead last in the league. Maybe we should've saw that coming. Do you know which team is allowing the second-most FanDuel points per game to opposing running backs? That's right, it's the Lions at 29.7 FanDuel points per game.

The Cousins-Cook-Thielen stack combined is $24,100, which is 40% of the total salary available. Whew, buddy. That is a lot to invest in three players, but you could essentially capture all of their touchdowns. Try and add Hockenson to that, and you have a solid game stack.