NFL Analytics: Positional Success Rates Allowed Through Week 9
As fantasy football players, we need to study matchups each and every week.
How exactly to determine the best matchups can be tricky, but rather than look just at yards per carry or passing yards per game allowed, I like to lean on numberFire's Net Expected Points (NEP) metric in various ways. NEP indicates expected points gained for a team's offense -- or denied by a team's defense.
Here's a good example of why it matters. A 15-yard catch looks great on paper, especially compared to a 5-yard catch. But if the 15-yarder comes on 3rd-and-20, it's not very impactful. If the shorter gain comes on 3rd-and-2, it's a significant play and boosts the offense's scoring expectation. It was a success.
Adding this context can show us which teams defend positions well and which teams may have their traditional stats inflated by plays that don't matter as much as others.
You can view our overall, opponent-adjusted passing and rushing defense numbers on our team rankings page, but here's a breakdown of Success Rates allowed to the various positions across the NFL through Week 9's games.
For defensive purposes, lower success rates and expected points numbers allowed are better. Tables are sorted as such.
Quarterback Pass Defense
| Defense | Passing NEP/ Drop Back |
Rank | Passing Success Rate |
Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chicago Bears | 0.03 | 8 | 42.2% | 1 |
| Pittsburgh Steelers | -0.01 | 5 | 42.5% | 2 |
| Washington Football Team | 0.04 | 9 | 44.0% | 3 |
| Los Angeles Chargers | 0.14 | 14 | 44.4% | 4 |
| Baltimore Ravens | -0.02 | 4 | 44.6% | 5 |
| Kansas City Chiefs | -0.03 | 3 | 44.8% | 6 |
| Los Angeles Rams | -0.06 | 1 | 45.2% | 7 |
| Tampa Bay Buccaneers | 0.01 | 6 | 45.7% | 8 |
| San Francisco 49ers | 0.14 | 15 | 45.8% | 9 |
| Indianapolis Colts | 0.01 | 7 | 46.0% | 10 |
| Philadelphia Eagles | 0.06 | 10 | 46.1% | 11 |
| Dallas Cowboys | 0.18 | 18 | 46.6% | 12 |
| Arizona Cardinals | 0.10 | 12 | 47.2% | 13 |
| Miami Dolphins | -0.06 | 2 | 48.4% | 14 |
| New Orleans Saints | 0.13 | 13 | 48.7% | 15 |
| Denver Broncos | 0.09 | 11 | 48.7% | 16 |
| Las Vegas Raiders | 0.31 | 29 | 50.3% | 17 |
| Cincinnati Bengals | 0.22 | 24 | 50.3% | 18 |
| Detroit Lions | 0.27 | 25 | 50.4% | 19 |
| Buffalo Bills | 0.15 | 17 | 50.5% | 20 |
| Cleveland Browns | 0.19 | 19 | 50.6% | 21 |
| Atlanta Falcons | 0.30 | 28 | 51.0% | 22 |
| Minnesota Vikings | 0.29 | 27 | 51.9% | 23 |
| Carolina Panthers | 0.20 | 22 | 52.5% | 24 |
| Seattle Seahawks | 0.27 | 26 | 52.6% | 25 |
| Green Bay Packers | 0.20 | 23 | 52.6% | 26 |
| Tennessee Titans | 0.20 | 21 | 53.6% | 27 |
| New York Giants | 0.19 | 20 | 54.0% | 28 |
| Jacksonville Jaguars | 0.35 | 32 | 54.3% | 29 |
| New England Patriots | 0.14 | 16 | 54.5% | 30 |
| Houston Texans | 0.34 | 31 | 55.3% | 31 |
| New York Jets | 0.33 | 30 | 56.7% | 32 |
| NFL Average | 0.15 | 49.1% |
Running Back Rush Defense
| Defense | Rushing NEP/ Carry |
Rank | Rushing Success Rate |
Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tampa Bay Buccaneers | -0.15 | 1 | 31.4% | 1 |
| Baltimore Ravens | -0.15 | 3 | 31.8% | 2 |
| Pittsburgh Steelers | -0.08 | 6 | 32.3% | 3 |
| Philadelphia Eagles | -0.08 | 7 | 35.3% | 4 |
| Chicago Bears | 0.02 | 16 | 36.1% | 5 |
| Denver Broncos | -0.07 | 8 | 36.3% | 6 |
| New York Jets | 0.00 | 14 | 36.7% | 7 |
| New Orleans Saints | -0.01 | 10 | 37.4% | 8 |
| New York Giants | 0.01 | 15 | 37.8% | 9 |
| Indianapolis Colts | -0.08 | 5 | 38.4% | 10 |
| San Francisco 49ers | -0.11 | 4 | 38.6% | 11 |
| Jacksonville Jaguars | -0.02 | 9 | 38.9% | 12 |
| Atlanta Falcons | -0.15 | 2 | 40.9% | 13 |
| Seattle Seahawks | 0.00 | 12 | 41.2% | 14 |
| Arizona Cardinals | 0.02 | 17 | 41.6% | 15 |
| Tennessee Titans | 0.06 | 21 | 42.9% | 16 |
| Los Angeles Rams | 0.00 | 13 | 42.9% | 17 |
| Washington Football Team | -0.01 | 11 | 43.5% | 18 |
| Dallas Cowboys | 0.08 | 25 | 43.7% | 19 |
| Green Bay Packers | 0.15 | 28 | 44.6% | 20 |
| Carolina Panthers | 0.07 | 24 | 45.1% | 21 |
| Los Angeles Chargers | 0.04 | 18 | 45.1% | 22 |
| Houston Texans | 0.16 | 30 | 46.0% | 23 |
| Cincinnati Bengals | 0.15 | 29 | 47.3% | 24 |
| Kansas City Chiefs | 0.07 | 23 | 47.4% | 25 |
| Las Vegas Raiders | 0.18 | 31 | 47.5% | 26 |
| Buffalo Bills | 0.09 | 26 | 47.8% | 27 |
| Minnesota Vikings | 0.05 | 20 | 48.0% | 28 |
| Miami Dolphins | 0.04 | 19 | 48.3% | 29 |
| Detroit Lions | 0.18 | 32 | 49.3% | 30 |
| Cleveland Browns | 0.06 | 22 | 50.6% | 31 |
| New England Patriots | 0.09 | 27 | 52.1% | 32 |
| NFL Average | 0.02 | 42.3% |
Receiving Defense vs. Position
(This table is sorted by target success rate allowed to wide receivers.)
| Defense | RB Target Success Rate |
Rank | WR Target Success Rate |
Rank | TE Target Success Rate |
Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kansas City Chiefs | 55.2% | 28 | 47.6% | 1 | 53.6% | 13 |
| Chicago Bears | 32.2% | 1 | 48.8% | 2 | 52.1% | 9 |
| Washington Football Team | 44.4% | 11 | 49.2% | 3 | 59.3% | 25 |
| Baltimore Ravens | 32.8% | 2 | 52.1% | 4 | 62.3% | 29 |
| Los Angeles Rams | 41.9% | 7 | 52.6% | 5 | 56.5% | 19 |
| Miami Dolphins | 59.6% | 31 | 53.0% | 6 | 49.0% | 6 |
| Atlanta Falcons | 49.3% | 21 | 53.2% | 7 | 65.2% | 31 |
| Arizona Cardinals | 47.3% | 14 | 53.4% | 8 | 53.3% | 12 |
| San Francisco 49ers | 42.1% | 8 | 53.5% | 9 | 49.0% | 7 |
| Indianapolis Colts | 52.3% | 25 | 53.6% | 10 | 44.6% | 2 |
| Philadelphia Eagles | 40.0% | 6 | 54.1% | 11 | 60.7% | 28 |
| Green Bay Packers | 65.5% | 32 | 54.4% | 12 | 60.0% | 26 |
| Pittsburgh Steelers | 36.1% | 4 | 54.7% | 13 | 39.7% | 1 |
| Denver Broncos | 45.6% | 12 | 55.2% | 14 | 60.0% | 26 |
| Los Angeles Chargers | 33.8% | 3 | 55.3% | 15 | 46.8% | 4 |
| Dallas Cowboys | 38.5% | 5 | 55.3% | 16 | 58.5% | 21 |
| Detroit Lions | 47.1% | 13 | 55.3% | 17 | 54.2% | 14 |
| Tampa Bay Buccaneers | 43.8% | 10 | 55.7% | 18 | 51.4% | 8 |
| Carolina Panthers | 53.3% | 27 | 56.0% | 19 | 56.2% | 18 |
| Las Vegas Raiders | 48.0% | 19 | 56.8% | 20 | 52.6% | 10 |
| Buffalo Bills | 51.0% | 24 | 56.9% | 21 | 57.9% | 20 |
| Cleveland Browns | 47.9% | 17 | 57.5% | 22 | 55.1% | 17 |
| Cincinnati Bengals | 50.0% | 22 | 57.6% | 23 | 54.3% | 15 |
| Minnesota Vikings | 47.6% | 15 | 58.2% | 24 | 70.0% | 32 |
| Tennessee Titans | 47.9% | 17 | 58.7% | 25 | 58.5% | 21 |
| Jacksonville Jaguars | 50.8% | 23 | 60.7% | 26 | 54.7% | 16 |
| New Orleans Saints | 48.1% | 20 | 61.0% | 27 | 47.8% | 5 |
| New England Patriots | 57.1% | 29 | 61.2% | 28 | 53.1% | 11 |
| New York Giants | 52.6% | 26 | 61.3% | 29 | 58.5% | 21 |
| Seattle Seahawks | 47.9% | 16 | 61.5% | 30 | 45.2% | 3 |
| New York Jets | 57.1% | 29 | 62.0% | 31 | 59.3% | 24 |
| Houston Texans | 42.9% | 9 | 63.8% | 32 | 65.0% | 30 |
| NFL Average | 47.3% | 56.1% | 55.1% |
