DraftKings Daily Fantasy Football Primer: Week 10

In this DFS preview, I'll focus on the Sunday main slate and group players into two categories based on their DraftKings salaries: players to build around and value plays.

Players to build around are those with high salaries but even higher production ceilings, making them worth prioritizing in your lineup. Value plays are guys with lower salaries and typically come with some risk, but adding them to your lineup will help you afford the more expensive players on the slate.

All references to betting totals and spreads are from NCAAF odds. All stats are from Pro Football Reference unless otherwise noted.

Players to Build Around

QB Kyler Murray, Cardinals ($8,000) vs. BUF

This matchup between the Arizona Cardinals and Buffalo Bills has the highest total on the slate (56.0 points), and with Arizona favored by just 2.0 points, it also has the potential to turn into a back-and-forth shootout. Kyler Murray is coming off back-to-back games of more than 40 fantasy points, and the Bills present him with another favorable matchup. Buffalo has allowed at least 20 fantasy points to the opposing quarterback six times in nine games, the second most in the league.

QB Aaron Rodgers, Packers ($7,900) vs. JAC

This should be an easy victory for the Green Bay Packers -- they're favored by 12.5 points -- which gives Aaron Rodgers both a high ceiling and floor. In Green Bay's six victories, Rodgers is averaging 28.2 points. There's some risk of the Packers building a big lead and diminishing Rodgers' workload in the second half, but heavy pass volume early in games has allowed Rodgers to reach at least 30 attempts in every contest this season.

QB Jared Goff, Rams ($6,500) vs. SEA

Opposing quarterbacks are scoring 9.8 fantasy points above their average against the Seattle Seahawks' defense, making Jared Goff one of the obvious candidates for our lineups this week. Goff's fantasy production has been erratic, but he has demonstrated a strong ceiling against weaker defenses, putting up 28.4 fantasy points against the Washington Football Team and 31.2 points against the Buffalo Bills.

RB Aaron Jones, Packers ($7,100) vs. JAC

Rostering running backs against the Jacksonville Jaguars has been a boom-or-bust strategy. Jacksonville has allowed three running backs to reach 27 or more fantasy points but has held everyone else to 16 or fewer points. This trend might make Aaron Jones more risky in cash games, but he's worth a shot in tournaments. Green Bay carries the highest implied total on the slate (31.5), which gives Jones a high ceiling in this game.

RB Joe Mixon, Bengals ($6,100) vs. PIT

The Pittsburgh Steelers' run defense has been surprisingly weak versus 11 personnel, allowing 5.5 yards per carry, the third worst rate in the league, according to Sports Info Solutions. This bodes well for Joe Mixon -- or Giovani Bernard if Mixon is unable to play due to a foot injury -- as the Cincinnati Bengals use 11 personnel on 73 percent of their rushing attempts. A number of Steelers have been placed in COVID-19 protocols this week, which could also work in the Bengals favor due to a combination of a disrupted week of practice and some players missing Sunday's game.

WR Stefon Diggs, Bills ($7,500) vs. ARZ

As previously mentioned, this game has shootout potential, so the top offensive weapons on both sides should be on your radar. Excluding garbage time, Stefon Diggs has been targeted once every 6.2 offensive plays, the second highest rate in the league. Cardinals opponents have been averaging 67.6 plays per game, which would put Diggs on pace for 10.9 targets in this matchup -- and potentially more if it turns into fast-paced shootout.

WR Cooper Kupp, Rams ($6,900) vs. SEA

If you're rostering Goff to take advantage of Seattle's inept defense, pair him with Cooper Kupp. Seattle has allowed 20 or more fantasy points to 12 different receivers through eight games. Kupp leads Los Angeles with a 26.1 percent targets share, making him a strong bet to be the wideout who eclipses that 20-point threshold for the Rams.

Value Plays

QB Jake Luton, Jaguars ($5,400) vs. GB

I mentioned Jake Luton as a value play last week based on the theory his downfield passing ability would open up the Jaguars' offense. Luton paid off with 25.5 fantasy points, and he did throw downfield at an increased rate. According to Sports Info Solutions, 24 percent of Luton's passes went at least 15 yards downfield, compared to 17 percent with Gardner Minshew at quarterback. With Jacksonville likely playing from behind against Green Bay, coupled with the Jaguars' increased trust in Luton's passing ability, he should have another high ceiling in Week 10.

RB Darrell Henderson, Rams ($5,900) vs. SEA

Darrell Henderson is tied for third in the league with 18 carries inside the 10-yard line, but he's scored on just three of those touches. The Rams have a competent offensive line, so that low touchdown rate is probably due to a bit of bad luck. Against a weak defense like Seattle's, Los Angeles is likely to take a few trips inside the 10-yard line, so a multi-touchdown game for Henderson is a definite possibility in this matchup. Unfortunately Henderson is dealing with a quad injury, so be sure to follow updates on his status leading up to kickoff.

WR Chase Claypool, Steelers ($5,800) vs. PIT

Bengals cornerback LeShaun Sims is allowing 2.5 fantasy points per target, the worst rate among cornerbacks with at least 40 targets in coverage. Sims primarily lines up on the left side of Cincinnati's defense, which should match him up against Chase Claypool more than any other Steelers receiver. Claypool is coming off a career-high 13 targets in Week 9 and should see another strong workload when matched up against Sims.

WR Josh Reynolds, Rams ($3,500) vs. SEA

Over the last three weeks, Josh Reynolds is tied with Robert Woods with 22 targets, yet Woods' salary is $3,100 higher. This matchup could lead to a strong workload for Reynolds based on Seattle's struggles against outside receivers. According to Sports Info Solutions, Seattle is allowing a league-worst 75.7 percent completion rate to receivers lined up wide. Reynolds leads the Rams in targets while lined up on the outside. Kupp and Woods spend a lot of time in the slot.

WR Cam Sims, Football Team ($3,200) vs. DET

Cam Sims is a longshot to pay off, but on this cheap cap, hit he's worth throwing into a lineup or two based on his matchup with struggling Detroit Lions rookie Jeff Okudah. According to Sports Info Solutions, Okudah is allowing a league-worst 67 percent completion rate when targeted at least 10 yards downfield. Sims has started the last two games for Washington, playing at least 74 percent of the snaps in each. If that trend continues, he should get a couple opportunities to beat Okudah down the field.

TE Robert Tonyan, Packers ($3,500) vs. JAC

Jacksonville is allowing 15.6 fantasy points per game to tight ends, the fifth most in the league. One of the reasons is linebacker Joe Schobert, who is allowing a league-worst 11.7 yards per target when in coverage versus tight ends, according to Sports Info Solutions. Robert Tonyan's usage has been inconsistent, but this appears to be a matchup Green Bay can exploit.

Ryan McCrystal is not a FanDuel employee. In addition to providing DFS gameplay advice, Ryan McCrystal also participates in DFS contests on FanDuel using his personal account, username cfbfilmroom. While the strategies and player selections recommended in his articles are his/her personal views, he/she may deploy different strategies and player selections when entering contests with his/her personal account. The views expressed in his/her articles are the author’s alone and do not necessarily reflect the views of FanDuel.