Thursday Night Football Betting Preview: Who Will Win This AFC South Clash?
Two of the league's top-16 teams square off this evening, as the Indianapolis Colts travel to take on the Tennessee Titans, giving us possibly one of the best Thursday Night Football games of the season.
This one could go a long way to determining the AFC South divisional record -- who can come out on top?
Let's dive into what our models think could be some intriguing betting angles for this contest.
A Slight Lean to the Home Team
These two teams are very tight in the division -- the 5-3 Colts are trailing the 6-2 Titans by a single game, and both are in the hunt for a Wild Card spot as well.
But both of them have many questions to answer -- the Colts dropped a 24-10 decision to the Baltimore Ravens a week ago, and they've beaten up on some bad teams, as they have wins against the lowly New York Jets, Cincinnati Bengals, and Detroit Lions.
The Colts have been very stout on defense, and they will need to deal appropriately with Derrick Henry, who has averaged only 85 yards in each of his last four games. Indianapolis has been a top-five run defense all season.
If Henry can get going, our algorithm loves the home Titans at +1.0, making it a three-star bet. Interestingly, 81% of bettors and 66% of all bets are slamming in on the Titans, per oddsFire.
Bets to Consider
Our models love the home team in this one, even with Henry's recent struggles. We expect them to take the contest 63.2% of the time, making the moneyline and the points very solid investments.
From an over/under perspective, the 48.5 points seem like a lot. After they popped for 30-plus points four times in a row, the Titans haven't broken 24 points in any of their last three games. We expect the under to hit 59% of the time.
Given this potentially low-scoring environment, pairing the under and Henry's rushing yards, which is posted at 81.5 yards over at FanDuel Sportsbook, seems like a decent bet. While he has struggled as of late, don't forget his ability to hulk-smash this one, including his 212 rushing yards in Week 6. He blasted the Colts for 231 rushing yards and 2 scores a season ago.
Historical Betting Trends
-- Indianapolis has been dominant inside the division from an against-the-spread perspective, rocking a 7-3 against the spread mark in their last 10 games.
-- Meanwhile, Tennessee has not enjoyed the same success, especially as a favorite. They are only 2-5 against the spread in this split.
-- Recently, Indianapolis has owned the Titans -- they are 6-2 against the spread in their last 8 games head-to-head.
