Fantasy Football FAB Report: Week 11
Free agent budget waivers (FAB) are, without a doubt, the way to go. While some leagues are still sticking to the ancient ways of rolling list waivers (yuck) or waiver priority determined by the reverse order of standings (barf), many of the savvy ones are moving over to budgets. It makes sense -- why not give every manager an equal shot at every player? Do you really want to reward people for sucking at fantasy? Okay...rant over.
Every Tuesday evening, I (along with most managers in leagues with FAB waivers) spend countless hours trying to figure out how much to offer for the week's top available players -- which so happens to be exactly what this piece will cover.
Instead of telling you that you should be adding Alvin Kamara or Patrick Mahomes, this piece will focus strictly on players who are rostered in fewer than 50% of Yahoo leagues.
Let's get to this week's top players and how much of my budget I'd be willing to offer to acquire them.
(The suggested offers are for 12-team, half-PPR leagues.)
Quarterback
Depending on your scoring and roster formats, how much you should spend at quarterback varies from league to league. If you're in a traditional, four-point-per-touchdown, one-quarterback league, there is rarely an occurrence where you should be spending a big chunk of your budget on the position. However, if you're in a Superflex or straight-up two-quarterback league, that story changes entirely. With that in mind, let's look at this week's top streaming options.
When I refer to quarterbacks points, I'm utilizing Yahoo scoring.
If you thought Week 10 was no fun for streaming, you're not going to be any happier with Week 11's crapshoot.
Jameis Winston (1% rostered) - With Drew Brees slated to miss some time with a rib contusion, Jameis is about to come and help you eat that W. Again, this is a guy who posted 26.5 or more fantasy points on five different occasions last year. On the season, no team has allowed more fantasy points per game to opposing quarterbacks than the New Orleans Saints' Week 11 opponent, the Atlanta Falcons. After Drew Lock posted a career-best 30.2 fantasy points against Atlanta in Week 9, that it the fifth time this season that signal-callers had recorded at least 29 fantasy points against them in a game this season. Only once has a passer totaled fewer than 18 fantasy points in a game against this squad. In 2020, the Falcons rank second-worst in Adjusted Defensive Passing Net Expected Points (NEP) per play. With a full week of practice, Winston could be a top-10 play this week.
Suggested offer: 3-6%
Kirk Cousins (29% rostered) - Do I feel confident in suggesting Cousins as a streamer? Hell no. But this is the crop of players we're working with. In Week 11, Kirk will go up against a Dallas Cowboys defense that has had a tendency to allow ceiling games to their opposition. Four passers have managed at least 25 fantasy points against Dallas, including Ben Roethlisberger and Matt Ryan, each of whom totaled one of their two best outputs of the season. Now, Cousins has had four games this season with fewer than 16 fantasy points, including two with 10.4 and 1.5 -- the floor is as low as it gets. That said, he's also posted 20 or more four times in 2020, and desperate times call for desperate measures.
Suggested offer: 0-2%
Running Back
Unlike quarterback, running back is a premier position in almost every format. For that reason, this is a position you'll want to be generous with. Of course, some backs have more value in PPR (point-per-reception) leagues than they do in standard, so be sure to keep that in mind.
The running back market in Week 11 isn't as wafer-thin as it usually is, offering some rare late-season value. Let's take a look.
Salvon Ahmed (6% rostered) - Despite Myles Gaskin and Matt Breida missing Sunday's game due to injuries, the Miami Dolphins made Jordan Howard a healthy scratch and ended up being waived on Monday. That led to the rookie Ahmed seeing a 76% snap share and 84.6% of the team's running back touches. Ahmed turned his 22 touches into 90 yards and a score in Miami's 29-21 victory over the Los Angeles Chargers. The path has been paved for Ahmed to see a healthy snap share for the foreseeable future, at least until Gaskin returns. A matchup with the Denver Broncos in Week 11 isn't as friendly as we'd like, but the volume should keep Ahmed in the RB2 conversation.
Suggested offer: 22-25%
Nyheim Hines (41% rostered) - Let's roll this back, shall we? After totaling 73 yards and 2 scores in Week 1, many splurged on Hines, only to have him scored 22.9 combined half-PPR points over the next five games. Well, he's back on our radar now, in a big way. Hines played a season-high 56% of the snaps in Week 10, received 12 carries and 6 targets, and he recorded 115 total yards and 2 tuddies. Look, we're all well aware of the floor Hines possesses, but this is also a guy who's been a top-eight back on three different occasions this season. Each of the Tennessee Titans next five games are against teams that amongst the eight most-generous to opposing backfields. In his four matchups against bottom-eight fantasy defenses against the position, Hines has posted 23.3, 8.1, 19.7, and 26.0 half-PPR (point per reception) points. Don't be afraid to dish out a little extra if you're in a league with any sort of PPR format.
Suggested offer: 20-30%
Kalen Ballage (19% rostered) - After garnering 17 touches in Week 9, Ballage received 23 totes (18 carries and 5 receptions) in Week 10 -- he turned those into 102 total yards. With Justin Jackson on injured reserve and Austin Ekeler still without a timetable to return, Ballage seems to be in control of this backfield. Despite Joshua Kelley's presence and Troymaine Pope returning from injury, Ballage still saw a 73% snap share and 77 percent of the team's running back touches. In Week 11, Ballage will get to take on his former team, the New York Jets. On the season, the Jets are surrendering the eighth-most fantasy points to opposing backs.
Suggested offer: 17-20%
Wide Receiver
While it may vary based on scoring (standard versus PPR), wideouts are generally valued at similar rates in most formats. However, leagues that require you to start at least three wideouts could see inflated offers at the position.
There are a number of receivers who should have been added last week and are still available in more than 50% of Yahoo leagues. Prioritize them this week.
Jakobi Meyers (48% rostered) - Meyers was the top player in this report last week, and there's a chance he's still available in your league. In a brutally tough matchup against the Baltimore Ravens, Meyers still managed more than 13 half-PPR points, though some of that did come on an impressive touchdown pass. To date, only Davante Adams has been targeted on a higher percentage of his routes than Meyers. The 24-year-old has seen 37 targets over his last four games and is trending toward low-end WR2 territory.
Suggested offer: 20-25%
Allen Lazard (42% rostered) - Another player featured here last week -- Lazard should be a priority again this week. Green Bay's three-week window to activate the wideout comes to a close this week, which means he should be activated for Week 11's matchup with the Indianapolis Colts. The WR2 in an Aaron Rodgers-led offense can be a fantastic fantasy asset. You can read more about why I'm targeting Lazard in the Week 10 report. If he hasn't been added in your leagues yet, you likely won't have to break the bank to acquire him this week.
Suggested offer: 8-12%
Michael Pittman Jr. (10% rostered) - Pittman has now seen seven and eight targets in his last two games, the latter coming with T.Y. Hilton actually active. Pittman led all Indianapolis wideouts in both snap share (81%) and target share (20.5%) in Week 10, and he totaled 122 yards on 8 touches (7 receptions, 1 carry). The rookie has now had a snap share above 80% in back to back contests, and his target share during that stretch leads the team. That's encouraging. Don't count on consistent production from the second-round pick, but he is worth an add as a potential flex play.
Suggested offer: 7-10%
Other options: With Preston Williams on IR, Grant played a season-high 76% of the snaps and tied his season-high with five targets. He turned those looks into 45 yards and a tuddy. It's pretty clear that the passing volume we saw with Ryan Fitzpatrick is far higher than what we'll see with Tua Tagovailoa, who has yet to attempt more than 28 passes in a game -- that alone prevents Grant from becoming anything more than a flex play. Still, he's worth an add during bye season. Don't offer more than 5-7% ... Jalen Reagor (26% rostered) was in this space last week, and in Week 10, he saw season-highs in snaps share (88%) and targets (7), and he also led the team with 96 air yards. I'd offer up to 6-9% for the rookie ... Speaking of rookies, K.J. Hamler (4% rostered) saw 10 targets for the second consecutive game on Sunday, though he managed just 4 receptions for 50 yards. Hamler is worth an add as a back-end flex play in PPR formats. Anything more than 3-5% is too much.
Tight End
Logan Thomas (35% rostered) - Thomas is the only tight end that's rostered in less than 50% of Yahoo leagues that's even worth submitting an offer for. Thomas has seen at least a 74% snap share in every game this season, including 100% and 99% shares in the last two games with Alex Smith behind center. Thomas has garnered six looks in each of the last two outings, as Smith's tendency to lock in on his dump-off targets continues. Expecting Thomas to develop into a mid-range TE1 would be unreasonable, though he can be a reliable back-end TE1 in PPR leagues who scores the occasional touchdown.
Suggested offer: 4-6%
