FanDuel Single-Game Daily Fantasy Football Helper: Week 11 Monday Night (Rams at Buccaneers)
On Online Sportsbook, the Tampa Bay Buccaneers are 4.5-point favorites over the Los Angeles Rams, and the total is set at 48.0 points. That implies a 26.50-22.00 win for the Bucs.
The betting public is split pretty evenly on this game. Per our oddsFire tool, the 57% of the bets and 53% of the money coming in on the spread is backing Tampa Bay. There's more of a trend on the total as 68% of the bets and 69% of the money is on the over.
For those unfamiliar, single-game slates feature five flex spots with identical scoring to the main slate. However, kickers are included in these contests, and there is an "MVP" roster slot. The MVP receives 1.5-times his total fantasy points, making this spot crucial.
This past offseason, our Brandon Gdula did a deep dive on single-game strategy. It's worth checking out before you make your lineups.
Tom Brady, Buccaneers ($16,000)
This isn't an easy slate to write up, because very few players have anything but a difficult matchup in front of them. I'm not all that high on either of the two signal-callers, but I lean toward Tom Brady over Jared Goff ($14,500).
Brady has been super volatile in 2020. He's got four games with fewer than 15 FanDuel points, including two single-digit outputs, and he also boasts a trio of games of 30-plus points. His last four games are all over the map in terms of FanDuel production: 31.84, 5.36, 19.06, and 36.86.
The matchup with the Rams is a tough one. We have the Rams as the fourth-best pass defense, according to our schedule-adjusted metrics, and LA is permitting just 15.1 FanDuel points per game to quarterbacks, the second-fewest.
With the Bucs' D ranking sixth in pass defense and third in overall defense by our numbers, Goff is in a bad spot, too, so I'll side with the home passer who has shown upside, even though I'm not expecting a Brady ceiling game.
We project Brady for 18.5 FanDuel points, 3.2 more than anyone else. Not only is he the top-projected player on the slate, he's the best point-per-dollar value, as well.
Chris Godwin, Buccaneers ($13,500)
The best matchup of the night on the Bucs' side looks like it belongs to Chris Godwin. Operating out of the slot slightly more than half of the time (56.2%), Godwin should avoid Jalen Ramsey more than Mike Evans ($13,000) and Antonio Brown ($9,000) do.
Godwin looked sharp in Week 10 despite a finger injury, catching all six of his targets for 92 yards. The yards were a season-high, and Godwin has been targeted at least six times in all six of his games this season. Godwin's 90% snap share last week paced Tampa Bay's wideouts.
While LA's pass D is stout, Godwin's slot battle with Troy Hill is a matchup Brady and the Bucs may lean on. We have Godwin projected for 10.9 FanDuel points, and he's my favorite MVP play on this slate.
Josh Reynolds, Rams ($9,500)
Josh Reynolds has kept growing in importance for the Rams in recent weeks. That culminated with a big game in Week 10 in which Reynolds ended with eight catches for 97 yards. He accounted for 27.7% of LA's wide-receiver targets in that one, a team-best mark, and he's seen at least eight targets in three straight games.
Also in Week 10, Reynolds tied Robert Woods ($12,500) with an 80% snap share while Cooper Kupp ($12,000) was in on only 53% of the snaps. It was Reynolds' fifth straight game with a snap share of at least 70%.
Considering the salary, Reynolds might be the best play among LA's receivers. With Tampa Bay giving up the eighth-fewest FanDuel points per game to receivers, this is a hard matchup for all of them.
Rob Gronkowski, Bucs ($8,500)
Typically we don't want to mess with tight ends on single-game slates, but I think Rob Gronkowski needs to be on our shortlist for this game. As we've mentioned, the Rams present a difficult matchup for Tampa Bay's wideouts, which could push more targets Gronk's way.
That's what has happened against the Rams this season as offenses facing LA have targeted tight ends 24.3% of the time, the third-highest clip, per Mike Tagliere.
Gronk has been living off touchdowns lately, going for just 94 total yards across the past three games but scoring a tuddie in two of those outings. He's got just three total catches since Antonio Brown was added to the mix, so the floor here is low. But Gronk did play 81% of the snaps last game and could see more work due to the matchup.
Cam Akers, Rams ($7,000)
The Rams' backfield has been a real blast this season. I still feel pretty clueless about things heading into this one, especially with Malcolm Brown ($8,500), Darrell Henderson ($10,500), and Cam Akers all playing between 26% and 41% of the snaps last week.
I'm not going to pretend to know how the usage will shape up on Monday night, but Akers might -- emphasis on might -- be trending up. His 26% snap share last week was his highest clip since Week 1, and he looks to be fully healthy. Beat writers have suggested Akers will be more involved.
The matchup is rough as Tampa Bay owns the second-best run D, per our schedule-adjusted metrics, and they're surrendering the sixth-fewest FanDuel points per game to the position (17.9). But I like Akers as a low-salary dart throw.
