NFL Analytics: Positional Success Rates Allowed Through Week 11
As fantasy football players, we need to study matchups each and every week.
How exactly to determine the best matchups can be tricky, but rather than look just at yards per carry or passing yards per game allowed, I like to lean on numberFire's Net Expected Points (NEP) metric in various ways. NEP indicates expected points gained for a team's offense -- or denied by a team's defense.
Here's a good example of why it matters. A 15-yard catch looks great on paper, especially compared to a 5-yard catch. But if the 15-yarder comes on 3rd-and-20, it's not very impactful. If the shorter gain comes on 3rd-and-2, it's a significant play and boosts the offense's scoring expectation. It was a success.
Adding this context can show us which teams defend positions well and which teams may have their traditional stats inflated by plays that don't matter as much as others.
You can view our overall, opponent-adjusted passing and rushing defense numbers on our team rankings page, but here's a breakdown of Success Rates allowed to the various positions across the NFL through Week 11's games.
For defensive purposes, lower success rates and expected points numbers allowed are better. Tables are sorted as such.
Quarterback Pass Defense
| Defense | Passing NEP/ Drop Back |
Rank | Passing Success Rate |
Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pittsburgh Steelers | -0.10 | 1 | 39.5% | 1 |
| Chicago Bears | 0.05 | 9 | 42.9% | 2 |
| Los Angeles Rams | -0.08 | 2 | 44.3% | 3 |
| Los Angeles Chargers | 0.14 | 16 | 44.4% | 4 |
| Washington Football Team | 0.05 | 8 | 44.8% | 5 |
| San Francisco 49ers | 0.13 | 14 | 45.6% | 6 |
| Baltimore Ravens | 0.02 | 6 | 46.1% | 7 |
| New Orleans Saints | 0.08 | 12 | 46.4% | 8 |
| Philadelphia Eagles | 0.08 | 11 | 46.7% | 9 |
| Kansas City Chiefs | 0.02 | 4 | 46.8% | 10 |
| Tampa Bay Buccaneers | 0.03 | 7 | 47.1% | 11 |
| Indianapolis Colts | 0.02 | 5 | 47.2% | 12 |
| Denver Broncos | 0.07 | 10 | 47.3% | 13 |
| Dallas Cowboys | 0.18 | 20 | 47.5% | 14 |
| Miami Dolphins | -0.03 | 3 | 48.2% | 15 |
| Arizona Cardinals | 0.12 | 13 | 49.0% | 16 |
| Cincinnati Bengals | 0.22 | 24 | 49.0% | 17 |
| Cleveland Browns | 0.14 | 15 | 49.3% | 18 |
| Buffalo Bills | 0.15 | 17 | 50.6% | 19 |
| Green Bay Packers | 0.15 | 18 | 50.7% | 20 |
| Las Vegas Raiders | 0.26 | 28 | 50.8% | 21 |
| Minnesota Vikings | 0.22 | 25 | 50.8% | 22 |
| Carolina Panthers | 0.19 | 21 | 50.8% | 23 |
| Atlanta Falcons | 0.29 | 29 | 51.2% | 24 |
| Detroit Lions | 0.24 | 26 | 51.4% | 25 |
| Jacksonville Jaguars | 0.30 | 30 | 52.7% | 26 |
| Seattle Seahawks | 0.26 | 27 | 52.9% | 27 |
| New York Giants | 0.16 | 19 | 53.4% | 28 |
| Tennessee Titans | 0.21 | 23 | 53.4% | 29 |
| Houston Texans | 0.31 | 31 | 54.8% | 30 |
| New York Jets | 0.32 | 32 | 55.2% | 31 |
| New England Patriots | 0.20 | 22 | 55.3% | 32 |
| NFL Average | 0.14 | 48.9% |
Running Back Rush Defense
| Defense | Rushing NEP/ Carry |
Rank | Rushing Success Rate |
Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tampa Bay Buccaneers | -0.16 | 1 | 32.3% | 1 |
| Pittsburgh Steelers | -0.04 | 7 | 34.3% | 2 |
| Chicago Bears | 0.00 | 13 | 34.6% | 3 |
| Baltimore Ravens | -0.09 | 3 | 35.1% | 4 |
| New York Jets | -0.03 | 9 | 35.2% | 5 |
| Philadelphia Eagles | -0.08 | 4 | 35.2% | 6 |
| Denver Broncos | -0.02 | 10 | 36.5% | 7 |
| New Orleans Saints | -0.05 | 6 | 37.2% | 8 |
| Jacksonville Jaguars | -0.02 | 11 | 39.1% | 9 |
| New York Giants | 0.05 | 21 | 39.2% | 10 |
| San Francisco 49ers | -0.08 | 5 | 39.4% | 11 |
| Indianapolis Colts | -0.04 | 8 | 40.2% | 12 |
| Atlanta Falcons | -0.13 | 2 | 42.4% | 13 |
| Arizona Cardinals | 0.03 | 19 | 42.4% | 14 |
| Los Angeles Rams | 0.00 | 14 | 42.5% | 15 |
| Washington Football Team | -0.01 | 12 | 43.0% | 16 |
| Tennessee Titans | 0.05 | 20 | 43.2% | 17 |
| Carolina Panthers | 0.08 | 25 | 43.5% | 18 |
| Green Bay Packers | 0.11 | 28 | 43.5% | 19 |
| Seattle Seahawks | 0.01 | 16 | 43.5% | 19 |
| Dallas Cowboys | 0.09 | 26 | 44.4% | 21 |
| Los Angeles Chargers | 0.03 | 18 | 45.5% | 22 |
| Kansas City Chiefs | 0.06 | 23 | 46.0% | 23 |
| Miami Dolphins | 0.01 | 15 | 46.5% | 24 |
| Houston Texans | 0.16 | 31 | 46.5% | 25 |
| Cincinnati Bengals | 0.12 | 29 | 47.4% | 26 |
| Las Vegas Raiders | 0.18 | 32 | 47.5% | 27 |
| Detroit Lions | 0.14 | 30 | 47.5% | 28 |
| New England Patriots | 0.05 | 22 | 48.7% | 29 |
| Minnesota Vikings | 0.07 | 24 | 48.7% | 30 |
| Buffalo Bills | 0.10 | 27 | 49.3% | 31 |
| Cleveland Browns | 0.03 | 17 | 49.8% | 32 |
| NFL Average | 0.02 | 42.3% |
Receiving Defense vs. Position
(This table is sorted by target success rate allowed to wide receivers.)
| Defense | RB Target Success Rate |
Rank | WR Target Success Rate |
Rank | TE Target Success Rate |
Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Washington Football Team | 53.1% | 26 | 48.6% | 1 | 56.3% | 17 |
| Kansas City Chiefs | 54.2% | 29 | 49.2% | 2 | 60.0% | 24 |
| Chicago Bears | 34.4% | 3 | 49.5% | 3 | 52.5% | 9 |
| Pittsburgh Steelers | 33.3% | 1 | 50.5% | 4 | 39.2% | 1 |
| Miami Dolphins | 61.0% | 32 | 50.7% | 5 | 51.6% | 8 |
| Los Angeles Rams | 40.0% | 7 | 51.3% | 6 | 55.8% | 16 |
| San Francisco 49ers | 44.6% | 11 | 53.0% | 7 | 47.2% | 3 |
| Los Angeles Chargers | 36.1% | 4 | 53.0% | 8 | 49.3% | 6 |
| Atlanta Falcons | 50.0% | 18 | 53.4% | 9 | 66.2% | 32 |
| Baltimore Ravens | 34.2% | 2 | 53.9% | 10 | 63.5% | 29 |
| Cleveland Browns | 46.6% | 15 | 54.4% | 11 | 60.5% | 26 |
| Indianapolis Colts | 56.4% | 30 | 54.6% | 12 | 44.6% | 2 |
| Denver Broncos | 44.0% | 10 | 54.9% | 13 | 57.6% | 22 |
| Green Bay Packers | 59.5% | 31 | 55.1% | 14 | 53.1% | 10 |
| Carolina Panthers | 50.0% | 18 | 55.3% | 15 | 55.7% | 15 |
| Buffalo Bills | 52.8% | 24 | 55.5% | 16 | 60.0% | 24 |
| Cincinnati Bengals | 50.0% | 18 | 55.9% | 17 | 49.4% | 7 |
| Philadelphia Eagles | 42.0% | 8 | 56.1% | 18 | 56.9% | 20 |
| Dallas Cowboys | 37.8% | 5 | 56.1% | 19 | 62.1% | 28 |
| Arizona Cardinals | 44.8% | 12 | 56.2% | 20 | 56.5% | 18 |
| Minnesota Vikings | 49.3% | 17 | 56.8% | 21 | 64.5% | 31 |
| Las Vegas Raiders | 47.7% | 16 | 57.1% | 22 | 53.8% | 12 |
| Tampa Bay Buccaneers | 39.5% | 6 | 57.3% | 23 | 54.3% | 13 |
| Jacksonville Jaguars | 50.7% | 23 | 57.4% | 24 | 53.1% | 11 |
| Tennessee Titans | 53.3% | 27 | 57.4% | 25 | 59.7% | 23 |
| Detroit Lions | 45.9% | 14 | 57.4% | 26 | 54.5% | 14 |
| New Orleans Saints | 43.8% | 9 | 57.5% | 27 | 47.5% | 5 |
| New York Giants | 50.0% | 18 | 60.5% | 28 | 60.9% | 27 |
| New York Jets | 53.0% | 25 | 61.4% | 29 | 57.4% | 21 |
| New England Patriots | 54.0% | 28 | 61.5% | 30 | 56.6% | 19 |
| Seattle Seahawks | 50.6% | 22 | 61.6% | 31 | 47.3% | 4 |
| Houston Texans | 45.6% | 13 | 63.5% | 32 | 63.6% | 30 |
| NFL Average | 47.1% | 55.7% | 55.3% |
