15 Fantasy Football Transactions for Week 13
I get it. Your fantasy football league's trade deadline has passed, so you can't really utilize the typical buy and sell recommendations that this article provides.
That doesn't mean the advice is just going to go away.
Trading players isn't an option anymore, but the general idea of buying and selling still exists. Instead of actually trading for a buy candidate, you know you can have confidence in that player moving forward. You don't have to worry as much as you may be worrying. And then the opposite is true, too. If there's a player who's a sell, it's not about the action of trading that player away, but it's about knowing that he may not be as reliable as you think.
As we get into the fantasy playoffs, we'll shift to more adds and drops. For now, we're still looking at buys and sells.
Make sense? Cool. Now let's make some transac...uh, let's feel better or worse about our fantasy football teams.
Add Devontae Booker
Josh Jacobs left Sunday's game against the Falcons in the third quarter with an ankle injury, resulting in backup Devontae Booker seeing about 35% of the Raiders' snaps, his second-highest mark of the season. Pro Football Doc seems to be relatively optimistic about Jacobs' injury, noting that the injury likely isn't a long-term one, but it's better to be safe than sorry, especially this time of year when holding handcuff running backs is a lot less costly than it is earlier in the season. With the Jets on deck, Booker has a chance -- if Jacobs can't go in Week 13 -- to be a usable fantasy asset.
Hold Michael Pittman Jr.
You may look at Michael Pittman Jr.'s output against the Titans on Sunday and think nothing of it, but his usage was pretty good. He only caught 2 Philip Rivers passes for 28 yards -- it's tough to sell that as a positive. The good news is that it came on nine targets, giving him a target share of 21.4%. He's now averaging a target share per game of about 17.5% over his last four contests, and that includes a game where his share was just 8.8%. The Colts will face the Texans, Raiders, and Texans again over their next three contests, which are three plus matchups when looking at opponent-adjusted fantasy points allowed to wide receivers this year. That means Pittman should stay on your fantasy roster.
Buy Antonio Brown
It wasn't a good Week 12 for Antonio Brown. He played 73% of Tampa Bay's snaps, when Chris Godwin was at 91.5% and Mike Evans at 89.8%. Brown also ran the fewest routes of the three, and he ended the day with just a 7.3% target share. That was his lowest share since becoming a Buccaneer -- in his previous three games, his target shares were 13.5%, 21.1%, and 27.7%.
It's not hard to see this as a good buy-low opportunity. Or, if you've got Brown, don't overemphasize this performance. This isn't very analytical to say, but down games happen. No one is selling Brown as Davante Adams, so we shouldn't expect a 25% target share week in and week out. And the good news is that he's still relatively close to Godwin and Evans in snaps and routes. It's not like he's just never on the field.
The main reason to buy into him -- the main reason to keep the faith -- is the Tampa Bay schedule. Over their next three games -- which are the fantasy playoffs, since they have a bye in Week 13 -- the Buccaneers will face the Vikings, Falcons, and Lions. Those are all top-10 matchups for opposing wide receivers when looking at adjusted fantasy points allowed to wide receivers this year.
Sell James White
James White's Week 12 performance wasn't sustainable at all. He finished with a mid-RB2 performance after scoring 14.7 PPR points, but the only reason he tallied that many points was because he found the end zone twice. His peripherals weren't great, Bob! After hitting a 23.7% target share in Week 11, White -- playing in a Rex Burkhead-less offense -- saw fewer than 6% of the Patriots' targets on Sunday. He played only 37.7% of the team's snaps, and he touched the ball a grand total of 6 times.
We want James White in negative game scripts. We thought that might happen in Week 12 -- we thought the Patriots may trail big against the Cardinals -- but it didn't. Even though he came through with a decent performance, you can't rely on that type of effort moving forward. His production is going to be pretty unpredictable.
Add Cam Akers
Over on Yahoo!, Cam Akers is rostered in fewer than 30% of leagues. That's understandable considering, entering the week, he didn't have a single top-30 finish at the running back position this year.
Until Week 12.
Akers ran the ball 9 times for 84 yards and a touchdown against the 49ers, giving him his first double-digit fantasy point performance of the season. The Rams' backfield is still split, but since LA started giving Akers more work back in Week 8 -- four games ago -- he's been far more effective than teammate Darrell Henderson, rushing to a 54.6% Success Rate. Henderson's has been 33.3% over this time. (For those of you who don't know what Success Rate is, it measures the percentage of positive expected point runs made by a running back, and it's all according to numberFire's expected points model.)
If the trend continues, there's a chance that Akers gobbles up more of that backfield down the stretch. (You've got to hope he starts seeing more work through the air, too.) We shouldn't bank on it happening, per se, but Akers is the right type of flier to have on your bench.
Add Gabriel Davis
John Brown's now missed three games this year. In those games, rookie wideout Gabriel Davis played no fewer than 95% of Buffalo's snaps, and he's averaged a target share per game in the split of 14.7%. Out of the split -- with Brown -- Davis has averaged a 7.2% target share per contest.
That type of target share isn't like, out-of-this-world amazing, but it's serviceable. And it's within a team that ranks in the top-half of the league in pass rate.
After a 79-yard, 1-touchdown game against the Chargers on Sunday, given the situation with Brown, Davis should be added this week in a lot of leagues.
Add Keke Coutee
Big news dropped Monday evening when Will Fuller took to Instagram to let us know that he was suspended six games for using a performance-enhancing drug. That means he's done for the season. Brandin Cooks will probably see a slight uptick in volume as a result of the suspension, and don't sleep on the team's tight ends -- like Jordan Akins -- too. But in the immediate term, Keke Coutee is someone you'll want to snag off the waiver wire.
Randall Cobb is on IR, so Coutee will likely be the number-two target for Deshaun Watson. He saw a 13% target share on Thanksgiving while playing, per Pro Football Focus, 63.2% of his snaps from the slot. So he has the potential to get favorable matchups given where he lines up on the field.
Don't expect a high ceiling from Coutee, though. Not only could this just hurt the Texans' offense in general, but Houston doesn't have that favorable of a schedule for wide receivers moving forward.
Sell DJ Chark
This may seem like a strange and random transaction, and, well, it kind of is. D.J. Chark wasn't able to play on Sunday thanks to a ribs injury, adding to an already disappointing 2020 season. Perhaps you're holding out hope that he'll come back and dominate in fantasy football once again, but I wouldn't be so confident. If you're a team staring at a bye week in the playoffs, then you'll get the pleasure of having to decide if you want to use Chark against the Ravens and Bears in Weeks 15 and 16. Those are the second- and third-toughest matchups for wide receivers when looking at adjusted points allowed.
So, yes, this is a transaction out of left field. It's just something to note since Chark has been such a difficult fantasy asset to measure this season. Chances are, he's not going to help you win a fantasy championship this year.
Add Frank Gore
The Jets played without La'Mical Perine and Le'Veon Bell for the first time this season in Week 12, and it turned into the Frank Gore show. He handled almost 86% of the team's running back carries while seeing 11.1% of New York's targets. Those were both season highs. He's now scored 26.7 PPR points over the last two weeks, and with the Raiders upcoming in Week 13 -- the fourth-best matchup in adjusted points allowed to running backs -- he has plenty of flex appeal on volume alone.
Add Allen Lazard
We haven't seen Allen Lazard get back to his full, normal snap count since returning from injury. From Weeks 1 through 3, Lazard never hit a snap share below 83.6%. In his two games since coming back from a core-muscle injury, his snap rates have been 60.0% and 46.5%. He also suffered a scary hit on Sunday night, but he appears to be fine since he was cleared to re-enter the game against Chicago.
The lower snap rates may seem alarming, but the Packers have proceeded with caution as Lazard ramps back up to normal playing time. If he can get there in the fantasy playoffs, he's got a chance to be a legitimate sleeper down the stretch. He saw almost 21% of Green Bay's targets against the Bears in Week 12, and in the fantasy playoffs, the Packers get beatable opponents in the Lions, Panthers, and Titans.
Lazard is still out there in 61% of Yahoo! leagues. That number should be much lower.
Buy Cooper Kupp
Cooper Kupp has been alternating his good performances with bad ones over the last month, and I'm sure it's been a frustrating adventure for fantasy football managers. He posted just 6.1 PPR points on Sunday against San Francisco, and he saw a season-low 16.1% target share. You don't love to see it.
The good news is that the rest-of-season schedule for Kupp is pretty intriguing. The final four fantasy-relevant games for Kupp and the Rams are against the Cardinals, Patriots, Jets, and Seahawks. Three of those four teams rank in the top-seven in the league in percentage of targets allowed to the slot this season, with the fourth team -- New York -- ranking as the fifth-most advantageous matchup for opposing fantasy wideouts. Kupp has played over 62% of his snaps from the slot this year, so the individual matchups for him through the rest of the fantasy season are, like I said, pretty intriguing.
If you've got him, you should feel optimistic despite the down game.
Add Ryan Fitzpatrick
Ryan Fitzpatrick was a fantasy football disaster in Week 1 against New England, but in games that he's started since then, he's averaged 22.3 points per game. For context, that would place him right behind Deshaun Watson in yearly points per game scoring at the position.
As long as the Dolphins don't make the switch back to Tua Tagovailoa in Week 13, then Fitzpatrick is in play as a streamer. The Dolphins get the Bengals this week in a game where Miami has a pretty high 26.5-point implied team total. Cincinnati's a top-10 opponent in adjusted points allowed to quarterbacks, too.
Add Kirk Cousins
A safer streamer this week might be Kirk Cousins. Even though he's scored 20-plus fantasy points in three of his last four games, he's still out there in 60% of Yahoo! leagues. And this week, he gets a Jacksonville defense that's given up the fourth-most schedule-adjusted fantasy points to quarterbacks this year.
That game has a pretty attractive 51.5-point over/under according to FanDuel Sportsbook, too, with the Vikings compiling a team total north of 30 points. That's ideal for a quarterback streamer.
Add the San Francisco 49ers Defense
The 49ers' defense looked a lot healthier and, in turn, more alive in Week 12 against the Rams. Now, in Week 13, they get the Bills, a team that hasn't been super friendly to opposing defenses this year. So why add San Francisco now? You guessed it: the playoff schedule. After facing Buffalo, the 49ers will get Washington and Dallas in Weeks 14 and 15. Those are two of the best matchups you can find for a fantasy defense. So if you're looking forward to the playoffs and need a group off the waiver wire, you could look to the 49ers.
Add the Las Vegas Raiders
If you need a defense for this week only, Las Vegas works as a super low-rostered option. Yes, they've been bad this year, having finished with just two top-10 weekly performances. But the Jets -- their Week 13 opponent -- have been worse. The worst that a defense has ranked against the Jets in 2020 has been 16th, with all but three of their opponents finishing with a top-8 performance. When you adjust for strength of opponent, only the Broncos have been a better matchup for fantasy defenses than the Jets. As 7.5-point favorites, the Raiders are a relatively safe option off your waiver wire this week.
