NFL Betting: Can Washington End Pittsburgh's Perfect Season?
We've got one undefeated team left standing in the NFL, and it's the 11-0 Pittsburgh Steelers, a team that has been perfect through some scheduling peculiarities brought upon them in the unique year that is 2020.
The team hoping to disrupt the journey to 16-0 today is the Washington Football Team, who have won their past two games (over lesser opponents) by a combined score of 61-25.
Can they cover the 6.5-point spread? Will the game hit the over on 43.5 points? Let's see what our data and algorithm has to say about this one.
Game Overview
Here's a snapshot of how each team ranks in numberFire's opponent-adjusted Net Expected Points (NEP) metrics on both sides of the ball.
| Team | Total Offense |
Passing Offense |
Rushing Offense |
Total Defense |
Passing Defense |
Rushing Defense |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Washington | 24 | 27 | 9 | 10 | 12 | 9 |
| Pittsburgh | 10 | 10 | 23 | 3 | 2 | 10 |
A balanced attack -- a top-10 defense and a top-3 offense -- has gotten the Steelers to their perfect record. Washington's passing offense has lagged this year, but they have a top-10 defense of their own and a good rushing attack
At first glance, it may seem as though the passing offense has been improved with Alex Smith under center, but Smith has now averaged -0.04 Passing NEP per drop back on the season (well shy of the NFL average of 0.14). That's better than what Dwayne Haskins has offered them (-0.07) but not quite as good as Kyle Allen's production (0.10). Smith has also had a 4.9-yard average depth of target (the NFL average is 7.8), and he has the highest sack rate (8.8%) of either of the three Washington quarterbacks.
The Steelers' 34.4% pressure rate is highest in the NFL and considerably above the NFL average of 23.5%. Smith and the Washington offense could be relying on the underneath pass once more to keep it close, which may be a lower probability play against the league's 2nd-ranked pass defense than against the Dallas Cowboys (20th) and Cincinnati Bengals (26th) the past two games. In fact, in that two-game "win streak," Smith has been quite bad: -0.12 Passing NEP per drop back with just a 7.8% downfield attempt rate.
Best Bets
Our algorithm puts the best bet in this game as the over on the 43.5-point total, rating it a two-star bet out of five. The betting trends agree, as 66% of the bets and 64% of the money are on the over, via oddsFire.
The Steelers covered the 6.5-point spread in 56.6% of the algorithm's simulations, giving back an expected return of 8.1%, and that's the preferred play on the spread. Similarly, the Steelers' moneyline (-295) is about 76.9% likely to hit, but the expected return is just 3.0%.
Some of the most notable props to target on FanDuel Sportsbook for Same Game Parlay purposes include the over at 43.5 points, of course, paired with the under on JuJu Smith-Schuster's receiving yards at 58.5 and the under on J.D. McKissic's rushing yards at 15.5.
McKissic has two games with just eight yards in his past three and is getting phased out for Antonio Gibson and Peyton Barber. Smith-Schuster is third on the Steelers in target share over the past five games and has 56 yards on 14 targets the past two games. Washington's vulnerable in the slot, but Smith-Schuster's gotten to 58.5 yards in just 5 of 11 games and is losing market share.
