NFL Weather Report: Week 14

It’s Week 1 of the playoffs, and it’s time for the final push of the season. Most fantasy managers have been positioning their rosters for the stretch run. Handcuffs were acquired off the waiver wire a few weeks early. Maybe a second defense or a quarterback was added based on matchup. But now we’ve got decisions to make.

With a full slate of games coming on Sunday, I dug into the forecast data to help guide any roster moves in Week 14.

Overview

Below are the games with weather concerns headed into Week 14:

Games Impacted by Wind

Tennessee Titans (30-point implied total) at Jacksonville Jaguars (22.5)

At 19 MPH, the conditions in Jacksonville carry some risk. The game total (52.5) is the second-highest total on the slate, and fantasy managers will be looking to this contest for production. But luckily, upon a closer look, the concern for this game to be impacted is minimal. To start, the high wind isn’t expected to last the entire game.

The forecast shows increasing winds throughout the game, but max speeds aren’t expected until late. Meanwhile, the majority of the game is expected to be played with wind speeds at or below our threshold for concern. I’ll be providing updates throughout the weekend, but the initial projections indicate a minimal impact.

The Jaguars’ stadium will also play a role in risk reduction for this game. TIAA Bank Field is estimated at 180 feet tall. For comparison, FirstEnergy Stadium (which has been shown to provide a natural cover in previous weeks) stands at 171 feet. In addition, how Jacksonville’s stadium is positioned can be seen as a positive. Its 15.5-degree azimuth (points northeast and southwest) aligns with the projected direction of the wind (WSW). With a lessened chance of a cross breeze, fantasy managers should be able to approach this game without any issues should the current forecast hold.

Games Impacted by Rain

New York Jets (16.75-point implied total) at Seattle Seahawks (30.25)

Let’s keep it consistent and start with our reference table, but I’m mentioning this game just to be thorough.

The precipitation rate in Seattle is expected to be just 0.01 inches per hour. A rate like this presents a small amount of risk from a fantasy perspective. Similar to last week’s matchup between the Miami Dolphins and Cincinnati Bengals, if it does rain, we won’t see it. The expected light drizzle won’t accumulate, and field conditions shouldn’t be degraded. Rainfall would need to increase to 0.03 inches per hour to warrant any concern. Unless the forecast changes, we will all be able to watch Russell Wilson cook against the Jets without any inhibitions.

Games Featuring Cold Weather

Houston Texans (23-point implied total) at Chicago Bears (22)

Baltimore Ravens (25) at Cleveland Browns (22.5)

Pittsburgh Steelers (23.5) at Buffalo Bills (24.5)

Again, I like to be thorough. None of the games listed are set to fall below 25 degrees. Extreme conditions (single digits, low wind chill) are a reason to consider other options, but that’s not the case in Week 14. Additionally, historical data doesn’t indicate there’s a significant shift for the passing game in cold weather.

The histogram points to high-volume passing games having a smaller chance of occurring even in the cold. Under cold conditions, the relative probability of games featuring less than 25 pass attempts for a team did increase to 4.6%, but the majority of passing offenses (over 60.0%) were unaffected. The takeaway is that the temperature isn’t a leading factor. It allows us to focus on the offenses and their tendencies versus having to worry about the cold.