Daily Fantasy Football Range-of-Outcome Projections: Week 14

Fantasy football is a volatile game.

Sometimes, a shoelace tackle is the difference between a 10-yard catch and a 70-yard touchdown, and sometimes goal-line carries go to backup players.

It happens. A lot.

And, don't get me wrong -- median projections are quite valuable and capture the most-likely scenario. Setting your lineups based on 90th-percentile projections isn't the right way to handle things for a head-to-head lineup, but if you want to figure out which players can bust a slate open, then you'll have to embrace some risk.

That's why I've started simulating NFL weeks and seeing what happens when the slate is played out 1,000 times. Here are some things that popped at each position this week, based on my simulations, which factor in numberFire's projections and my own tweaks.

Table Terms

FanDuel Salary: A player's main slate salary on FanDuel.
Median FDP: A player's median FanDuel projection across the 1,000 slate simulations.
Value: Projected median FanDuel points per $1,000 in salary. All quarterbacks generally have a 2.00 FanDuel-point-per-$1,000 rate at the low end, which implies 2-times value, or 2x value. On a full slate of 13 games, roughly 13 running backs tend to have a 2x value projection. On a full slate of 13 games, a small handful of receivers may get to a 2x median projection, and just more than 30 will be at 1.5x. On a full slate of 13 games, few tight ends will get to a 2x median value, and anything above 1.5x is generally a top-six projection. It's important to understand the different value expectations across positions.
25th Pct: The player's 25th-percentile FanDuel point projection, meant to show a low-end (or floor) outcome. Every player's true floor is zero.
75th Pct: The player's 75th-percentile FanDuel point projection, meant to show a somewhat attainable/projectable high-end (or ceiling) outcome without simply looking at true outlier performances.
FDP%: The frequency with which a player surpassed a certain raw projection threshold, meant to show a raw ceiling outcome. This doesn't adjust for salary and is a different value for each position.
Boom/Bust Ratio: The frequency with which a player had a "boom" game compared to a "bust" game based on historical, position-based value outcomes. For quarterbacks, this measures games with 2.75x value versus games with worse than 2x value. For running backs, wide receivers, and tight ends, it's 2x versus less than 1.5x. Think of it as a simple floor-versus-ceiling rating. Higher is better, and they should be compared only within the same position.

Quarterback

Simulation Results

Observations:
Looks like upside is back on the menu, boys. The position looks great this week, and after a single quarterback surpassed 30 FanDuel points last week, we could have multiple this week. It's important that we focus on passers who can pile up points. Yes, their salaries are higher and the other positions require salary for upside, but I can't imagine that 15 points from Brandon Allen will do much in a huge tournament if a few quarterbacks get to 30.

The best boom/bust ratios belong to Deshaun Watson, Patrick Mahomes, Russell Wilson, and Kyler Murray. I think either Mahomes or Aaron Rodgers are the top quarterback plays of the slate, as I discussed on this week's Heat Check podcast, but Justin Herbert, Tom Brady, and Ryan Tannehill are at more palatable salaries.

Running Back

Simulation Results

Observations:
I can't quite recall the simulations liking anyone quite as much as Derrick Henry. He's projected for the top median score of the slate, yet his salary is "only" $9,600. With no Christian McCaffrey, it's just Dalvin Cook also in that stud tier, but Cook faces the toughest rush defense in the league, the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. I can see why Henry is favored.

But we do have plenty of lower-salaried options to build around, as well. The boom/bust ratios rank them: Mike Davis, Myles Gaskin, Giovani Bernard, David Montgomery, Ronald Jones. My preferences are Montgomery, Gaskin, and Kenyan Drake.

This leaves the $7,000 and $8,000 range a little unappealing to me (excluding Austin Ekeler and James Robinson), but the simulations still like them overall.

Wide Receiver

Simulation Results

Observations:
The top receivers can all probably break the slate open, so we can't simply plug in Dalvin Cook and Derrick Henry into every lineup and punt at receiver.

Despite a $9,600 salary, Davante Adams ranks second in boom/bust ratio behind only Robby Anderson at $6,500. Our projections always love Terry McLaurin, but Keke Coutee and Nelson Agholor are top-six in floor/ceiling rating, as well.

In total, 12 receivers rate out with at least a 20.0% chance to get to 20.0 FanDuel points, and six have a 75th-percentile outcome above 20.0 points. I think that balancing Henry/Cook and some of these top-tier receivers is going to be vital throughout our lineups.

Tight End

Simulation Results

Observations:
There's opportunity cost at every position this week because, at a certain point, ceiling is impossible to replace. I mistakenly didn't view Darren Waller with that level of upside last week, but he also can't really compare to Travis Kelce week-to-week. Kelce has five 100-yard games this season, and no other tight end has more than two. Those same numbers apply to 20-FanDuel-point games.

If we can't get to either Kelce or Waller, that's okay because the $5,000 range is somewhat appealing overall, and even though he's last on the table, Cole Kmet is a punt option if you assume Kelce or Waller don't put up big games.

Also, T.J. Hockenson is at $6,000 but has eight 50-yard games to rank second at the position, and the Detroit Lions played significantly faster (and better) last week under Darrell Bevell.