FanDuel Single-Game Daily Fantasy Football Helper: Week 16 Monday Night (Bills at Patriots)
On Online Sportsbook, the Buffalo Bills are 7.0-point road favorites over the New England Patriots. The total is set at 46.5 points, implying a 26.75-19.75 win for Buffalo.
Per our oddsFire tool, the betting public is all over Buffalo. Of wagers on the spread, a whopping 90% of the bets and 92% of the money is backing the Bills to cover. It's the same story on the moneyline, too, as 94% of the bets and 97% of the money is on the side of the Bills.
For those unfamiliar, single-game slates feature five flex spots with identical scoring to the main slate. However, kickers are included in these contests, and there is an "MVP" roster slot. The MVP receives 1.5-times his total fantasy points, making this spot crucial.
This past offseason, our Brandon Gdula did a deep dive on single-game strategy. It's worth checking out before you make your lineups.
Josh Allen, Bills ($16,500)
There aren't many reliable fantasy options on this single-game slate. Josh Allen is an exception. Allen has been on fire of late, showcasing a steady floor and big-time upside. Over his last six games, he's put up at least 16.48 FanDuel points in every outing while going for more than 28.00 FanDuel points four times in that span.
Allen has recorded at least six carries in eight of his last nine games, and he's got five rushing touchdowns across that stretch. He's also attempted at least 38 passes in five of his past six contests, so he pretty much checks every box you'd want in a fantasy quarterback.
The only blemish in this game is that the New England Patriots' defense has been much better lately, and the Pats limited Allen to just 154 passing yards and 13.46 FanDuel points in their earlier meeting. While Allen's ceiling is likely lower than usual due to the matchup, his solid floor really stands out on this slate, and he's the only guy who could get 25-plus FanDuel points and it wouldn't be all that surprising.
We project him for 24.1 FanDuel points, 5.6 more than anyone else. He'll be the chalk MVP option.
Cam Newton, Patriots ($15,000)
It doesn't feel good to use anyone from this Pats attack, but Cam Newton has some appeal and will surely be a less popular MVP pick than Allen is.
Newton's fantasy output stems largely from his running ability -- especially his work near the goal-line. Among all players (not just quarterbacks), Newton has the fourth-most rushing attempts inside the five (18). Overall he's run it 30 times over the past three games. That should give him some semblance of a floor, but as we've seen at times this season, that's not always the case due to the struggles of this offense in the passing game.
The matchup is there. Our schedule-adjusted metrics rank the Bills as the 10th-worst defense. They've surrendered the 11th-most FanDuel points per game to quarterbacks (19.9) as well as the 4th-most rushing tuds to the position (4).
We project Newton for the most rushing yards (43.18) of any player on the slate. In total, our model has Newton going for 18.5 FanDuel points, and he probably won't see as much MVP love as he should.
Stefon Diggs, Bills ($15,500)
Outside of the quarterbacks, Stefon Diggs is by far the most appealing option, and the matchup is easier with Stephon Gilmore out injured. Diggs sees enough volume to override most matchup concerns anyway as he's logged an eye-popping 37 targets over the past three games. He's accounted for a 31% target share and 38% air yards share in that time, per AirYards.com.
Diggs got nine targets in the first matchup with the Pats -- a game Gilmore missed -- turning them into six grabs for 92 yards. We forecast him to score 16.4 FanDuel points in this clash, and he's the only non-quarterback we have going for more than 10.4 FanDuel points. Wideouts typically aren't used enough in the MVP spot, and Diggs is firmly in play for the multiplier slot as a pivot away from the Allen MVP chalk.
Jakobi Meyers, Patriots ($11,000)
With how little the Pats have passed the ball this season and how inefficient they've been when they do pass it, all of New England's pass-game options have scary floors. Jakobi Meyers has been Newton's top target, though.
Over the last four games, Meyers has a 32% target share and 40% air yards share. Those are great clips. The problem is that has amounted to just 28 targets and 271 air yards in that time due to the Pats' run-heavy ways. But we're going to be able to find flaws with almost every option on this slate.
We have Meyers posting 9.4 FanDuel points, the most of anyone with a salary at or below $13,000.
John Brown, Bills ($5,000)
John Brown is expected back for this game, but his salary doesn't reflect that. By our model, Brown is by far the top point-per-dollar play on the slate, and he'll likely be immensely popular since using him makes it much easier to jam in both quarterbacks.
Brown was coming on prior to getting hurt, combining for 19 targets, 14 catches and 191 yards across Weeks 9 and 10. He saw a 28% air yards share over those two games. We'll have to see if Brown steps right back into a full-time role with the same type of usage, but at this salary, it's well worth rostering him to find out.
Our algorithm projects Brown to amass 9.1 FanDuel points.
