FanDuel Single-Game Daily Fantasy Football Helper: Week 17 Sunday Night (Washington at Philadelphia)
On Online Sportsbook, the Washington Football Team is a 3.5-point road favorite against the Philadelphia Eagles, and the total is set at 43.5 points -- implying a 23.50-20.00 win for Washington.
Per our oddsFire tool, sharp money is on Washington. Only 42% of moneyline bets are backing WFT, but 55% of the money is on Washington, indicating some big-money wagers on WFT.
For those unfamiliar, single-game slates feature five flex spots with identical scoring to the main slate. However, kickers are included in these contests, and there is an "MVP" roster slot. The MVP receives 1.5-times his total fantasy points, making this spot crucial.
This past offseason, our Brandon Gdula did a deep dive on single-game strategy. It's worth checking out before you make your lineups.
Jalen Hurts, Eagles ($16,500)
Jalen Hurts has the best floor/ceiling combination on this slate. In three starts, he's put up 19.28, 37.82 and 20.58 FanDuel points.
While it's a difficult matchup against a Washington defense that has given up the third-fewest FanDuel points per game to signal callers (16.7), Hurts' running prowess should come in handy. He's run it at least nine times and for at least 63 yards in all three of his starts, and Washington has allowed the ninth-most rushing yards to quarterbacks.
Our model has Hurts in his own tier, projecting him for a slate-high 18.6 FanDuel points. He'll likely be the most popular MVP choice.
Antonio Gibson, Washington ($13,500)
Antonio Gibson is trending toward suiting up, and he'll probably see more work this week than he did in Week 16, his first game back from injury. In that one, Gibson got just 13 total touches (10 carries and three catches) and played only 30% of the snaps -- with J.D. McKissic ($12,000) seeing a 69% snap rate as Washington got into a negative game script.
With the WFT a 3.5-point favorite, the game script should benefit Gibson this time around. Ezekiel Elliott just ran for a season-best 105 yards on the Eagles a week ago, and our algorithm gives Gibson the best touchdown odds on the slate outside of the quarterbacks.
We project Gibson for 15.4 FanDuel points -- just 0.1 fewer than Smith -- and have him as the top non-quarterback on the slate. He's a fun MVP play who probably won't get as much MVP love as Hurts does.
Terry McLaurin, Washington ($13,000)
Despite not practicing all week, Terry McLaurin is expected to play, per reports. There's obvious risk of an in-game setback with his ankle injury, and he's likely not close to 100%, so we should tread lightly. With that said, this is a must-win game for Washington, and a hobbled McLaurin can still roast this short-handed Philly D, one that has allowed the seventh-most FanDuel points per game to wide receivers (33.2).
A week ago, Andy Dalton and his wideouts went nuts on the Eagles as Dalton threw for 377 yards and three scores. Unless McLaurin is going to be used as a decoy of sorts, he's a pretty safe bet for volume, getting at least six looks in every game this season. The return of Alex Smith ($14,500) should boost this passing game, and McLaurin accounted for a massive 40% air yards share in Smith's last two full games, according to AirYards.com.
Logan Thomas, Washington ($10,500)
If McLaurin is a shell of himself, Logan Thomas would stand to benefit. Smith has had eyes for Thomas, feeding the tight end a 19% target share and 21% air yards share across Smith's last two full games, both of which included a healthy McLaurin. The matchup is there as Philadelphia has surrendered the 11th-most catches and 12th-most touchdowns to tight ends.
Thomas has become a near every-snap player since Washington's bye. In the past eight games, he's logged a snap rate of at least 97% in every week but one, with the lone exception being a 90% snap rate.
We project Thomas for 8.6 FanDuel points and give him the slate's best odds at a receiving score.
Zach Ertz, Eagles ($8,000)
Tight ends are usually not worth it on single-game slates, but we could see each team's target leader be a tight end. That's how we project it, and we have Zach Ertz pegged for a slate-high 6.9 targets.
Dallas Goedert is out, and Goedert is tied for the team lead in targets, opening up a lot of volume in the Eagles' passing game. Ertz has gotten seven targets in each of the last two games, and Goedert suited up for both.
Our model forecasts Ertz for 8.7 FanDuel points, and he's a solid play at a reasonable salary.
Boston Scott, Eagles ($6,500)
It's going to be Boston Scott chalk night.
Miles Sanders is sitting out, so Scott should see plenty of work. In the three games Sanders has missed this year, Scott has posted snap rates of 56%, 69% and 65%, and he's put up 16.7, 8.9 and 6.4 FanDuel points. The 6.4-point outing was in Week 1 against Washington, so that's not ideal. But it's really hard to pass on good volume at a salary this low.
We project Scott for 18 touches (16 carries and two receptions) and 12.1 FanDuel points. He's easily the top point-per-dollar play and is the only non-quarterback other than Gibson we have projected for double-digit FanDuel points.
