Super Bowl Futures Betting Update: Wild Card Round
The 17-week preamble has come to an end. The regular season chaff has been separated from the wheat. We have entered what the great Bill Parcells called "the Tournament."
Yes, the NFL playoffs are here.
Is there any value to be had in betting on this year's Super Bowl winner? Let's take a look. Below is a list of each playoff team's implied win odds -- per their odds on Super Bowl odds -- along with their title odds according to our algorithm.
| Team | Odds | Implied Probability | nF Odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| Kansas City Chiefs | +220 | 31.3% | 19.8% |
| Green Bay Packers | +480 | 17.2% | 18.0% |
| New Orleans Saints | +750 | 11.8% | 10.9% |
| Buffalo Bills | +750 | 11.8% | 7.7% |
| Tampa Bay Buccaneers | +1000 | 9.1% | 7.2% |
| Baltimore Ravens | +1100 | 8.3% | 8.4% |
| Seattle Seahawks | +1300 | 7.1% | 6.2% |
| Pittsburgh Steelers | +2000 | 4.8% | 9.5% |
| Tennessee Titans | +2800 | 3.4% | 3.0% |
| Los Angeles Rams | +2900 | 3.3% | 5.0% |
| Indianapolis Colts | +4100 | 2.4% | 1.9% |
| Cleveland Browns | +4800 | 2.0% | 0.4% |
| Chicago Bears | +8500 | 1.2% | 0.4% |
| Washington | +8500 | 1.2% | 1.6% |
If you want our guidance as you look for value in this market, you will ignore the Kansas City Chiefs. We need absolutely no value there. And outside of the Green Bay Packers -- who are a slight value by our model -- we don't identify much value for any of the top teams. We do, however, see some value as we work down the list.
The Baltimore Ravens should pique your interest a little. There are five teams with shorter odds to win the Super Bowl than John Harbaugh's charges, and their implied odds of victory of 8.3% is close to ours of 8.4%. But the real value continues to be the Pittsburgh Steelers. Their Super Bowl-winning odds of +2000 carry an implied probability of 4.8%, while our numbers have them with a 9.5% shot. Some of that is tied to their Wild Card matchup against a Cleveland Browns squad we rank as the worst playoff team (20th overall).
It's also worth mentioning the Los Angeles Rams, a group we had ranked as the best team in football a few short weeks ago. Things have undoubtedly gone south for the Rams of late, with Jared Goff getting hurt and LA slipping to the sixth seed. They'll likely need Goff to come back to have a real shot to make a run, but we have the Rams with the league's top D and see a sliver of value in them right now.
