Super Bowl Futures Betting Update: Conference Championships
And then there were four.
The action from last week's Divisional Round has removed all but the final four teams from Super Bowl contention. The Los Angeles Rams and Baltimore Ravens were eliminated on Saturday, with the Cleveland Browns and New Orleans Saints following on Sunday.
Is there any value to be had in betting on any of the four teams remaining alive this postseason? Let's take a look.
Below is a list of each playoff team's implied win odds -- per Super Bowl odds -- along with their title odds according to our algorithm.
| Team | Odds | Implied Probability | nF Odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| Kansas City Chiefs | +210 | 32.3% | 33.3% |
| Green Bay Packers | +210 | 32.3% | 25.5% |
| Buffalo Bills | +330 | 23.3% | 17.3% |
| Tampa Bay Buccaneers | +430 | 18.9% | 23.9% |
The Kansas City Chiefs and Green Bay Packers have the same odds of ultimate victory, per FanDuel Sportsbook, but our model gives the Chiefs a better shot as we hand KC a league-best 33.3% chance to win it all.
The value bet continues to be the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. Despite having the worst chances going by oddsmakers, the Bucs have the third-best title odds by our numbers. They are also the number-one ranked team according to our nERD metric and have the highest-ranked defense among the final four. Winning at Lambeau will be no small task, but the Bucs offer the most betting value of the final four teams.
