Fantasy Football Defensive Streaming: Week 11 Edition
Week 10’s top-two fantasy defenses, Philadelphia and Arizona, were both highly owned coming into the week and could not be used by the majority of streamers.
If you went with one of the five suggestions in my article last week, the worst you could have done was roll with Pittsburgh, who finished as the 17th best-defense with five fantasy points. These are the results we, the streamers, are looking for.
The Ravens took advantage of rookie Zach Mettenberger, sacking the rookie signal-caller five times. They also forced two turnovers and allowed just seven points, finishing as the sixth-best defense for the week.
Calvin Johnson’s return snapped Miami’s four-game double-digit fantasy scoring streak, but the Dolphins still managed the 15th-best performance on the week with 6 fantasy points against a very good Detroit squad.
It’s worth noting that despite being an average defense based on our team efficiency metrics, Green Bay handled the dysfunctional Bears’ offense with ease, a subject we will re-visit soon.
Minnesota Vikings
Owned - ESPN: 15.3%, Yahoo: 19% Week 11 numberFire Rank: 15th
As anyone who watched the Green Bay/Chicago game last Sunday night can attest, the Chicago Bears are a sinking ship, led by their irreverent captain, Jay Cutler.
For a team with so many elite offensive options to be struggling this mightily is truly shocking. Chicago ranks 22nd in Adjusted Offensive Net Expected Points (NEP), showing their relative lack of efficiency when possessing the ball.
Chicago has allowed 13.3 fantasy points per game to opposing defenses over the last four weeks. This places Minnesota squarely in the streaming conversation this week.
Brandon Marshall has stated that he plans to play through his ankle injury, but if he can’t go on Sunday, that only enhances the Vikings prospects.
Despite traveling to Chicago this Sunday as 3-point underdogs, the Vikings will have the 12th-ranked defense according to our metrics in tow and should continue to frustrate the Bears’ playcallers, players, and fans.
San Diego Chargers
Owned - ESPN: 23.6%, Yahoo: 27% Week 11 numberFire Rank: 8th
After starting the season strong, San Diego’s defense has taken a slide over the middle part of the season.
Over the past four weeks, the Chargers’ defense has actually averaged -2.5 fantasy points per game while allowing almost 31 points per game during the same span. So with all this negative information, why would we trust them this week? There are a couple of reasons.
Raiders’ quarterback Derek Carr has played admirably considering the circumstances but has thrown 2 interceptions in each of his last two games and has not exceeded 200 yards passing in either game.
The Chargers also are 10-point favorites at home in a game that Vegas predicts to be fairly low-scoring (44.5 point over/under).
While recent history might scare you away from plugging the Chargers into your lineup, they are in a decent spot on Sunday.
Washington Redskins
Owned - ESPN: 16.6%, Yahoo: 6% Week 11 numberFire Rank: 6th
I’ve recommend Washington as a streaming option in past weeks, and it’s burned me. So including them on this list again comes with a bit of trepidation on my part.
But when I remove personal recency bias, Washington emerges as a decent play this week. The fact that their Week 11 opponent is Tampa Bay is a major reason why.
Washington’s defense has a clear weak spot, and it’s their pass defense. They rank 28th according to our metrics against the pass, but luckily for them, the Bucs don’t pose much of a threat. Tampa Bay ranks 30th in Adjusted Offensive NEP, and 31st in passing efficiency.
Conversely, Washington ranks 10th in rush defense, which forecasts a tough day on tap for whatever combination of Bobby Rainey, Charles Sims, and Doug Martin Tampa Bay chooses to roll out.
Washington is a seven-point home favorite facing a struggling offense. Go with it.
Deeper Streamers
Cleveland Browns (vs. Houston Texans), Pittsburgh Steelers (vs. Tennessee Titans)
