Zachariason: Post-Draft Fantasy Football Rookie Rankings

It's hard to remember an NFL Draft that did so little to help the fantasy football world. It seemed like skill position pick after skill position pick resulted in shoulder shrugs and excuses, with my brain trying to rationalize why a particular landing spot wasn't so bad.

But it was bad. Rashod Bateman going to Baltimore was bad. Tylan Wallace being drafted towards the end of the fourth round was bad. The Atlanta Falcons opting to not draft a running back...not great!

My pre-draft rankings have changed, but not drastically. That'll happen when the draft is pretty boring.

Here's how things have shifted, though.

1. Najee Harris, RB, Pittsburgh Steelers

Pre-Draft Overall Rank: 1
Pre-Draft Positional Rank: 1
Post-Draft Positional Rank: 1
Tier: 1

Najee Harris was at the top of my pre-draft rookie rankings, and then he was selected by the Steelers in Round 1, giving him the best landing spot of any running back in this class.

He's a bigger-bodied back at 230 pounds who also can catch passes out of the backfield. Among the 24 running backs who were invited to the combine (yes, I know the combine didn't happen, but they still had an invite list), Harris ranked third in best-season total yards per team play, sixth in best-season reception share, and fourth in best-season total touchdown share. Those are the three main production metrics my model -- which tries to predict fantasy output across a player's first three NFL seasons -- analyzes at the running back position.

And speaking of my model, given Harris' first-round draft capital, he comes in as a 96th percentile running back. That makes him a top-20 prospect at the position since 2006.

2. Ja'Marr Chase, WR, Cincinnati Bengals

Pre-Draft Overall Rank: 3
Pre-Draft Positional Rank: 1
Post-Draft Positional Rank: 1
Tier: 1

Ja'Marr Chase joined some very elite company in my model post-draft. After being selected fifth overall by Cincinnati, Chase checked in with a 99th percentile rating. There've only been six players in the model -- which dates back to 2006 -- with that high of a prospect score: Amari Cooper, Sammy Watkins, Mike Evans, Julio Jones, Demaryius Thomas, and Calvin Johnson.

That's some elite company. And that's why it wouldn't bother me at all if you opt to go with Chase over Harris at the 1.01 spot in single-quarterback rookie drafts. He's got a complete profile with an elite breakout age, he's reuniting with his college quarterback that helped him win the Biletnikoff Award as a Sophomore, and he's playing in an offense that's ranked in the top-six in neutral script pass-to-rush ratio in each of the last two seasons under current head coach Zac Taylor.

3. Travis Etienne, RB, Jacksonville Jaguars

Pre-Draft Overall Rank: 2
Pre-Draft Positional Rank: 2
Post-Draft Positional Rank: 2
Tier: 1

The scariest part about Travis Etienne's landing spot in Jacksonville is Urban Meyer. After the draft, Meyer called Etienne his "third-down back" while saying James Robinson and Carlos Hyde would be the team's 1-2 punch, seemingly on early downs. It'd be completely asinine to spend a luxury pick on a running back who'd only play passing downs, and this is likely just a classic instance of coach speak. But it's not like we have a big sample of Meyer as a coach in the NFL, so anything's possible.

I'll side with first-round running back history here, though, and continue to view Etienne as a high-end fantasy football asset. On one of the best football teams in the country, Etienne posted the third-best reception share in this running back class while providing the sixth-best total yards per team play. Those are both impressive marks. He may play a little undersized -- he weighed in at 215 pounds at his Pro Day, but he's noted that he plays smaller than that -- and that could help James Robinson stick around in some sort of early-down role. But Etienne should be a PPR machine, similar to how we're viewing D'Andre Swift in dynasty today.

4. Kyle Pitts, TE, Atlanta Falcons

Pre-Draft Overall Rank: 5
Pre-Draft Positional Rank: 1
Post-Draft Positional Rank: 1
Tier: 2

You couldn't really ask for a better landing spot than Atlanta for Kyle Pitts. He's immediately the number-three option behind Calvin Ridley and an aging Julio Jones, and considering the holes across the defense, the Falcons should be a pretty pass-heavy team in the short term. After plugging Pitts into my yearly projections, he came out as the sixth-best tight end in fantasy football.

Yeah, yeah -- I know. Rookie tight ends don't produce in fantasy football. I'm just not sure we can categorize Pitts as some typical rookie tight end. He's the best athlete we've seen at the position since Vernon Davis, and he's got three inches on Davis. He can play all over the field, too, and be a complete matchup nightmare.

To me, the Falcons don't make Pitts the fourth-overall selection to have him stay at the line blocking like the typical tight end. He's going to be close to the top of the league at the position in routes run. And when you give an athletic, productive prospect like Pitts that kind of opportunity, he'll thrive.

5. Javonte Williams, RB, Denver Broncos

Pre-Draft Overall Rank: 4
Pre-Draft Positional Rank: 3
Post-Draft Positional Rank: 3
Tier: 2

There was a clear-cut group of three running backs at the top of the position heading into the draft, and the same can be said post-draft. Javonte Williams landed in Denver after the Broncos traded up to get him, and while it may not seem like a great landing spot, it's really not so bad. Melvin Gordon, at the very latest, will be gone next season when he becomes a free agent. Williams may have to play a year in a tandem, but it'll probably be his backfield in 2022.

The trade up piece is interesting, too. Historically, running backs who've been traded up for in the draft have produced better than their counterparts. We've seen Round 2 and 3 trade up running backs average 1.7 more PPR points per game during their rookie campaign than backs who weren't taken with a trade up. And their first seasons also saw an uptick in rush attempts of about 22.

Williams broke the Pro Football Focus record in broken tackles per attempt last year, and he has good pass-catching ability, as well. He's a do-it-all back.

6. Devonta Smith, WR, Philadelphia Eagles

Pre-Draft Overall Rank: 8
Pre-Draft Positional Rank: 4
Post-Draft Positional Rank: 2
Tier: 3

DeVonta Smith is a post-draft riser for a couple of reasons. First, the draft capital was there. Smith was a top-10 pick, and even though we've seen top-10 busts in the past, a lot of them were objectively avoidable. There've been 18 wide receivers selected with top-10 capital since 2006. That's 15 if you discard Ja'Marr Chase, Devonta Smith, and Jaylen Waddle.

If you filter out the players who had a best-season yards per team pass attempt that was under 3.0, seven players remain: Corey Davis, Amari Cooper, Sammy Watkins, Mike Evans, Justin Blackmon, Julio Jones, and Calvin Johnson. Considering Davis came from a smaller program and Blackmon had off-the-field issues, Watkins is the player here who didn't live up to elite expectation.

The sample size is small, but Devonta Smith hits that minimum threshold. By a lot. Smith's best-season yards per team pass attempt rate -- the most predictive production-related metric in my model -- was 4.37. He now joins two other first-rounders since 2006 with a rate above 4.0 while being drafted in Round 1: Demaryius Thomas and Dez Bryant.

The second reason Smith got a bump post-draft is because there weren't necessarily ideal landing spots for wide receivers who were ranked ahead of him pre-draft. Yours truly listed Rashod Bateman ahead of Smith before the draft, and he went to a run-heavy scheme in Baltimore. Terrace Marshall was right ahead of Smith in third, but he dropped in the draft due to medical issues and was a later second-round pick.

Smith's not a flawless prospect analytically. He's not an early declare, and his lanky frame is something we really haven't seen before from such a strong prospect. Nevertheless, he's a 98th percentile prospect in my model, and it wouldn't feel right to make him anything but the second-best wideout in this class.

7. Jaylen Waddle, WR, Miami Dolphins

Pre-Draft Overall Rank: 9
Pre-Draft Positional Rank: 5
Post-Draft Positional Rank: 3
Tier: 4

Post-Published Note: After more thought, Jaylen Waddle has been bumped down into Tier 4.

Similar to Smith, Jaylen Waddle gets a bump post-draft because of where he was selected, and what happened to his wide receiver competition in this class. The difference? Waddle doesn't look nearly as good within my wide receiver model.

A lot of that is easy to explain, to be fair. He had a strong Freshman season at Alabama where he outproduced first-round talent like the aforementioned Smith and Henry Ruggs. During his Sophomore year, his snaps played dipped by 143, so his production didn't look as nice. And then last year happened, where he was injured after four games. Through those contests, though, he had more receiving yards than Heisman winner Devonta Smith.

Because of this journey, Waddle's prospect profile is pretty volatile. In my model, every player has what's called a "stat score" -- it's a score derived from the three main production metrics. Jaylen Waddle's is negative, which means it's below-average. Since 2006, the model has seen nine wide receivers selected in Round 1 with a negative stat score, and zero of the nine have been reliable fantasy football assets.

Waddle is now in that group.

I'm betting that Waddle bucks the trend of busts considering his profile looks so, so much better with just a little bit of context.

8. Terrace Marshall, WR, Carolina Panthers

Pre-Draft Overall Rank: 7
Pre-Draft Positional Rank: 3
Post-Draft Positional Rank: 4
Tier: 4

Once the Alabama wide receivers are off your rookie draft board, you're faced with a real dilemma. There are four wide receivers who could easily be placed in this eighth overall spot -- I'm just opting to put Terrace Marshall Jr. there.

Marshall had medical issues that popped up right before the draft, and that could be the reason we saw him as a second-round wideout instead of a first-round one. The good news is he fell to Carolina, reuniting him with ex-LSU passing game coordinator Joe Brady.

The main reason I'm high on Marshall -- and likely higher than the consensus -- is because he's one of the only earlier-round wide receivers who checks nearly every alpha wide receiver box. He's 6'3'', 205 pounds in a class that lacks size. He competed well with Justin Jefferson and Ja'Marr Chase as a Sophomore at LSU before getting injured in his fourth game of that record-breaking LSU season. And, last year before he opted out, he accounted for about 28% of LSU's receptions, 33% of their yards, and 59% of team's receiving touchdowns.

Again, I have no issue if you'd rather pass on Marshall for a safer bet like Elijah Moore or Rashod Bateman. To me, he's got the highest ceiling of the crew.

9. Elijah Moore, WR, New York Jets

Pre-Draft Overall Rank: 10
Pre-Draft Positional Rank: 6
Post-Draft Positional Rank: 5
Tier: 4

In hindsight, I should've given Elijah Moore a little more love when I talked about him before the draft. He had one of the best scores of any prospect in my model before last week's event, and he's now a 96th percentile prospect in my model. That's due to the fact that he ranked in the top-eight in all three production-related categories in the model among the 50 wide receivers who were invited to the combine.

Moore landed with the Jets, and some may view that as a bad spot to go. I'm don't think it's all that bad. Zach Wilson is a promising prospect, there's a new coaching staff, and even if slot receiver Jamison Crowder sticks around, he's a free agent next season. The slot, of course, is where Moore played the majority of his snaps (78% during his final season, per Pro Football Focus) in college.

I'm a believer that Moore can grow into something more than a Jamison Crowder-type slot receiver. Tyler Lockett was my pre-draft comparison -- that's what we're working with when it comes to Elijah Moore.

10. Rashod Bateman, WR, Baltimore Ravens

Pre-Draft Overall Rank: 6
Pre-Draft Positional Rank: 2
Post-Draft Positional Rank: 6
Tier: 4

Where a player gets drafted isn't everything. Situations change. Team philosophies aren't static.

But, man, it's hard to ignore this landing spot.

The Ravens took Rashod Bateman in the first round last week. And that's a big deal. Over the last two seasons with Lamar Jackson under center, the Ravens have thrown the ball 846 times. That's the fewest pass attempts in football by far. That's translated into 50 fewer wide receiver targets than any other team.

Like I said: teams change. My issue is that with Baltimore, changing to be some average destination for wide receiver production will take a good bit of effort.

Many have pointed to the 2020 Bills as the perfect example of a run-heavy team moving to become a pass-heavy one. And, at the surface, all it took was Stefon Diggs to make the shift. The problem I have with this logic is that we can't assume Lamar Jackson makes the historic passing efficiency leap that Josh Allen made, and we can't assume Rashod Bateman is as impactful of a player as Stefon Diggs is, even if we love Bateman.

Not only that, but the opportunity cost for Buffalo being more pass-heavy was smaller than it would be for Baltimore. The Ravens run the football efficiently. John Harbaugh knows this and has talked about this. Shifting to more drop backs doesn't mean a more efficient offense, even in this pass-friendly NFL era.

There've been comparisons between Bateman and what happened with A.J. Brown a couple of years ago post-draft, too. If you recall, Brown fell in rookie drafts because he landed in Tennessee, a team that was one of the most run-heavy in football.

The difference is that the Titans weren't this run-heavy, and there was a good chance we were going to see a quarterback change. That was used against Brown at the time, but things hit with Ryan Tannehill. And things hit with Brown, too, who's now one of the best wide receivers in the NFL.

That's the thing. Like, I like Rashod Bateman a lot. He was my pre-draft WR2 for a reason. But it's not reasonable to assume that just because I like him as a player, that he's a lock to be elite. That he's a lock to be as good as A.J. Brown. Because, really, that's what we're going to need for Bateman to have a high ceiling in fantasy football in this offense.

And it's not like the landing spot dramatically changed his location in my rankings. He's still in a tier with a lot of the same players he was with pre-draft. It's just that he's towards the bottom of that tier now as opposed to being close to the top.

11. Rondale Moore, WR, Arizona Cardinals

Pre-Draft Overall Rank: 11
Pre-Draft Positional Rank: 7
Post-Draft Positional Rank: 7
Tier: 4

Rondale Moore rounds out this giant Tier 4, staying in the same position he was in pre-draft. Really, I'd have no problem if you took Moore as the WR4 in this class -- he has plenty of potential, especially in this Arizona Cardinals offense.

My main concern is that Moore is a smaller pass-catcher who was locked into the slot in college, playing just 67 total snaps from out wide over his final two (injury-filled) collegiate seasons. During his breakout Freshman campaign, 91% of his snaps came from the slot according to Pro Football Focus. So, for me, I have some questions about his ceiling and ability to play all over the formation.

The landing spot was big for Moore, at least. His average depth of target was 361st in college football in limited time last year, but that's also how Purdue used him throughout his collegiate career. That pairs nicely with Kyler Murray, who's ranked in the bottom half of the league in average depth of target in each of his first two seasons.

12. Trey Sermon, RB, San Francisco 49ers

Pre-Draft Overall Rank: 17
Pre-Draft Positional Rank: 4
Post-Draft Positional Rank: 4
Tier: 5

One of the biggest draft-day winners was Trey Sermon, who ended up going to San Francisco in Round 3. Like Javonte Williams, Sermon was a trade-up running back -- San Francisco moved up to Pick 88 to select him. That's a good sign, as noted earlier, for his potential right away.

And, as we know, Kyle Shanahan's running scheme can be productive for fantasy purposes. As a team, 49ers backs ranked third in fantasy points per game last year. In 2019, they were first. It's just that they haven't had a substantial, reliable workhorse there, so no player has really been a go-to option in fantasy football. Sermon, who was one of the few backs with good size in this class, has a chance to be that player for them.

13. Trevor Lawrence, QB, Jacksonville Jaguars

Pre-Draft Overall Rank: 16
Pre-Draft Positional Rank: 1
Post-Draft Positional Rank: 1
Tier: 6

Things really start to get ugly after Trey Sermon. If you've got an early second-round pick in single-quarterback leagues, you're in a fairly tough spot.

One direction you could go in is Trevor Lawrence. The consensus QB1 in this class went first overall in the draft, and if you snag him in your rookie drafts, you're likely getting a starter for the next decade.

Lawrence enters the league with three years of starting experience and an adjusted yards per attempt rate that got better with each season after being a top recruit in the country as he exited high school. He has underrated rushing ability, too -- he's often compared to Andrew Luck, and he could make a Luck-like impact on the ground in the NFL. Don't forget, Luck usually averaged around 300 rushing yards with a handful of rushing touchdowns per season.

14. Trey Lance, QB, San Francisco 49ers

Pre-Draft Overall Rank: 23
Pre-Draft Positional Rank: 4
Post-Draft Positional Rank: 2
Tier: 6

Trey Lance is a big mover post-draft after being selected by Kyle Shanahan and the 49ers. As we know, fantasy football quarterbacks need the rushing component to their game in order to have a high ceiling in this era. Lance has that, and he probably has that more than any other signal-caller in this class. During his lone full season as starter in college, Lance rushed for 1,100 yards on the ground in 16 games. That type of rushing production will give him a little more leeway to develop as a passer in the NFL.

15. Michael Carter, RB, New York Jets

Pre-Draft Overall Rank: 20
Pre-Draft Positional Rank: 6
Post-Draft Positional Rank: 5
Tier: 6

Michael Carter II is now officially a Day 3 back, and that doesn't bode well for his career success in fantasy football. He scored as a 74th percentile running back in my model post-draft -- that's nothing to write home about.

The draft just unfolded in a way where there aren't many wide receivers in this range to get excited about, and Carter dropped to a spot with a clear path to relevancy. Carter's biggest knock analytically is that he doesn't have the typical frame for a workhorse in the NFL at 5'8'', 201 pounds, and he combined that small frame with a pretty unremarkable Pro Day. On the plus side, he's got good agility, he competed well with second-rounder Javonte Williams at North Carolina (he actually had more yards from scrimmage than Williams last year), and he'll have a shot to showcase that right away for the Jets.

That's because Carter is probably the most talented running back on the Jets depth chart now. He should be able to capture receiving work right away, and since the New York running back room is lacking, he could see a good chunk of early-down work, too.

16. Kadarius Toney, WR, New York Giants

Pre-Draft Overall Rank: 14
Pre-Draft Positional Rank: 10
Post-Draft Positional Rank: 8
Tier: 6

You know that whole "first-round wide receivers with a negative stat score have consistently busted in my model" thing that I talked about with Jaylen Waddle? Kadarius Toney falls into that group, too. Except, unlike Waddle, Toney doesn't have the same type of injury-related excuse. And, unlike Waddle, Toney played four seasons in college. He wasn't an early declare.

That's a recipe for disaster. If there's one first-round wide receiver who I'd point to having the most fantasy football bust potential, it's Toney.

But -- but! -- it's not all bad. Toney's electric with the ball in his hands, and he's still learning the wide receiver position after playing quarterback in high school and serving more as a gadget player until his final season at Florida. It'll probably take him some time to develop, but if he does, he has some upside.

17. Justin Fields, QB, Chicago Bears

Pre-Draft Overall Rank: 18
Pre-Draft Positional Rank: 2
Post-Draft Positional Rank: 3
Tier: 6

Justin Fields has the potential to be the best fantasy football quarterback in this class. As I noted in my pre-draft rankings, one of my favorite stats about Fields came from numberFire's own Jim Sannes: 87.6% of Justin Fields' attempts last season came against top-50 defenses according to Bill Connelly's SP+ method. Fields' average opponent rank was 24.6, which ranks as the toughest that we've seen from any quarterback that's been drafted since 2010.

Per Sannes, despite this schedule, Fields ranks in the 74th percentile in adjusted yards per attempt among first-round quarterback selections since the turn of the century.

Combine that with a 4.44 40-yard dash at his Pro Day, and it's easy to see a high ceiling.

18. Dyami Brown, WR, Washington Football Team

Pre-Draft Overall Rank: 13
Pre-Draft Positional Rank: 9
Post-Draft Positional Rank: 9
Tier: 7

Dyami Brown was a big play waiting to happen at North Carolina. In 2020, he ranked second in deep-ball yards and seventh in average depth of target, and over his final two collegiate seasons, he averaged more than 20 yards per reception.

He scored pretty well in my model post-draft. He's one of 11 drafted wide receivers with a best-season yards per team attempt rate north of 3.0, and with a strong breakout age, Brown is listed as an 81st percentile prospect according to the model. On a team where he can find the field quickly in three-wide receiver sets, he's a solid second-round rookie pick this year.

19. Amon-Ra St. Brown, WR, Detroit Lions

Pre-Draft Overall Rank: 15
Pre-Draft Positional Rank: 11
Post-Draft Positional Rank: 10
Tier: 7

The most wide open wide receiver depth chart in the NFL is in Detroit. The Lions entered the draft with Breshad Perriman, Tyrell Williams, Kalif Raymond, and Quintez Cephus as their top wideouts, so any wide receiver selected by Detroit would likely shoot up rookie draft boards.

They waited on the position and got Amon-Ra St. Brown in the fourth with the 112th pick. That type of draft capital isn't great, and St. Brown comes in as a 74th percentile wide receiver in my model -- below the 80th is where things start to get iffy. But we can't deny the immediate impact St. Brown can make, especially if he's able to capture the main slot role. His production took a dip from his Sophomore to Junior season at USC, where he went from playing 89% of his snaps from the slot to just 28%. In the slot as a Freshman and Sophomore, though, St. Brown competed production-wise with teammate Michael Pittman Jr., and that helped give him a high-end breakout age.

If St. Brown can grab hold of the slot role, perhaps we'll see him be Jared Goff's new Cooper Kupp.

20. D'Wayne Eskridge, WR, Seattle Seahawks

Pre-Draft Overall Rank: N/A
Pre-Draft Positional Rank: N/A
Post-Draft Positional Rank: 11
Tier: 7

My model likes D'Wayne Eskridge more than I do, and that's creating some issues with where to rank him. This spot feels right, all things considered.

Let's look at the positives. Eskridge has one of the highest best-season yards per team pass attempt rates in my database, and the man can fly. He ran a sub-4.4 40 time at his Pro Day. Thanks to that incredibly high yards per team pass attempt rate, Eskridge checks in around the 85th percentile mark in my model.

There are a lot of analytical negatives, though. He's already 24 years old, he's not an early declare after playing five seasons at Western Michigan, he played at a smaller program, and he only had one good year of production. And that season came during his fifth year in college.

The landing spot is fine, the draft capital is there, and he should be able to see the field as Seattle's number-three wide receiver pretty quickly. There are just enough flags to make me not want to reach for him in rookie drafts.

21. Amari Rodgers, WR, Green Bay Packers

Pre-Draft Overall Rank: N/A
Pre-Draft Positional Rank: N/A
Post-Draft Positional Rank: 12
Tier: 7

If you're drafting Amari Rodgers in rookie drafts, you're hoping his new quarterback, Aaron Rodgers, stays put in Green Bay. No one knows what'll happen there, but that would at least bring the rookie Rodgers some production as soon as Year 1.

From a fit standpoint, it's understandable why the Packers drafted Rodgers. His production wasn't all that strong in college, but he played the majority of his snaps from the slot during his final two seasons at Clemson. That's an area of need for Green Bay.

The thing is, he's built like a running back, and he sort of plays like a running back -- he was often compared to Ty Montgomery in the pre-draft process, and Montgomery was also selected by the Packers back in 2015. Instead of a player like Montgomery, though, Green Bay's hoping they have more of a Deebo Samuel type in Rodgers.

He may be a good tackle breaker like Samuel, but he's got work to do as a wide receiver.

22. Zach Wilson, QB, New York Jets

Pre-Draft Overall Rank: 22
Pre-Draft Positional Rank: 3
Post-Draft Positional Rank: 4
Tier: 7

Unsurprisingly, the Jets took Zach Wilson with the second overall pick in last week's draft. So not a whole lot has changed for me with Wilson post-draft. He's got a high-upside arm and has mobility, but not to the degree of a Lance or Fields.

Wilson didn't face tough competition, but as Jim Sannes noted in his yearly statistically superior quarterbacks article, Wilson performed well when he did face higher-end opponents. In fact, his adjusted yards per attempt against top-50 defenses last season was second-best in this draft class.

23. Nico Collins, WR, Houston Texans

Pre-Draft Overall Rank: 25
Pre-Draft Positional Rank: 13
Post-Draft Positional Rank: 13
Tier: 7

It was good to see Nico Collins get Day 2 draft capital, and I think it was deserved. He's 6'4'' and weighs 214 pounds, so he has the potential to be an alpha in the NFL. His sub-20-year-old breakout age is strong, and he's an early declare, too. Those are all great signs.

He just wasn't overly productive, and it's tough to get super excited about landing with arguably the worst run organization in sports. If we knew Deshaun Watson would be the quarterback, Collins would be more in the Amon-Ra St. Brown tier -- he'd likely be ahead of St. Brown. There's just a lot of ambiguity surrounding his situation right now.

24. Pat Freiermuth, TE, Pittsburgh Steelers

Pre-Draft Overall Rank: 26
Pre-Draft Positional Rank: 2
Post-Draft Positional Rank: 2
Tier: 8

We shouldn't expect a whole lot from Pat Freiermuth as an NFL rookie. Not only do tight ends usually not do all that well as first-year players, but he'll be, at best, the fourth or fifth option in the Pittsburgh passing attack.

After 2021, it's wheels up. Eric Ebron and JuJu Smith-Schuster could be gone, opening things up for Freiermuth to be the team's primary tight end and target in the middle of the field.

He's not Kyle Pitts, but Freiermuth had solid production at Penn State with a well above average breakout age. The size is there to be a beast for whoever's under center for Pittsburgh, too, given he's 6'5'' and 251 pounds.

25. Rhamondre Stevenson, RB, New England Patriots

Pre-Draft Overall Rank: 30
Pre-Draft Positional Rank: 9
Post-Draft Positional Rank: 6
Tier: 8

In a running back class that lacked size, Rhamondre Stevenson really stood out at 6'0'', 230 pounds. His production profile wasn't very complete given the journey he went on in college, where he transferred to Oklahoma after playing at a Junior college, and then he was suspended for part of his final season.

But during that final campaign, in games active, Stevenson compiled an impressive 15% reception share and 22% total touchdown share. Those are more than acceptable marks.

Sony Michel could be out of New England next season with the Patriots likely to decline his fifth-year option, and with Damien Harris as Stevenson's main competition, there could be a path to playing time in Year 2.

26. Josh Palmer, WR, Los Angeles Chargers

Pre-Draft Overall Rank: N/A
Pre-Draft Positional Rank: N/A
Post-Draft Positional Rank: 14
Tier: 8

Drafting Josh Palmer is all about draft capital and landing spot. He's a third-rounder, and he's going to be playing with one of the best young quarterbacks in football, and it's on a team that doesn't necessarily have a locked-in number-two receiver. Or, at least, there could be competition.

Palmer, as a prospect, just doesn't do it for me. He's got good size at 6'1'', 210 pounds, but he's got a horrific stat score in my model to go along with a weak breakout age. But, hey, my spreadsheets and I will be wrong plenty. There's a reason draft capital is in my model -- it has signal.

27. Tutu Atwell, WR, Los Angeles Rams

Pre-Draft Overall Rank: N/A
Pre-Draft Positional Rank: N/A
Post-Draft Positional Rank: 15
Tier: 8

My model doesn't mind Tutu Atwell. At all. And it's likely because across a large sample -- across every relevant wide receiver that's entered the league since 2006 -- size isn't that big of a deal. It matters, but not as much as you'd probably think.

I just can't shake the fact that Atwell weighed in at 155 pounds at his Pro Day. Atwell is the absolute smallest wide receiver in my database. Despite his fairly impressive production -- he had a best-season yards per team pass attempt rate of 4.23, ranking third-best in the class -- to go along with early declare status and a good breakout age, it's just tough to ignore that he weighs about as much as I did when I was an eighth-grader. Being buried on a depth chart in the short term isn't a plus, either.

28. Hunter Long, TE, Miami Dolphins

Pre-Draft Overall Rank: N/A
Pre-Draft Positional Rank: N/A
Post-Draft Positional Rank: 3
Tier: 9

Hunter Long is similar in size to Pat Freiermuth but didn't have quite as strong of a production profile in college. That's one of the reasons he's in a separate tier.

The other reason is because of draft capital, but Long was still a Day 2 pick. He's got a good bit of competition ahead of him on the Miami depth chart in the short term, but keep an eye on Mike Gesicki in 2022 -- he's a free agent, and the Dolphins going after Long could signal that they may be ready to move on. There is some worry about athleticism with Long, though, and that could really limit his fantasy football upside.

29. Mac Jones, QB, New England Patriots

Pre-Draft Overall Rank: N/A
Pre-Draft Positional Rank: N/A
Post-Draft Positional Rank: 5
Tier: 9

In single-quarterback leagues, we see a big devaluation of quarterbacks. That's even truer of traditional pocket passers like we have with Mac Jones.

Jones had a monster final season at Alabama, and his profile aligns closely with Joe Burrow's from last season, but Jones wasn't the first overall pick. He wasn't even a top-10 pick. That draft capital evaluation is important when separating the two, since games played and experience is a key indicator for NFL success, and neither player had that. At least Burrow was highly, highly regarded.

There's a chance Jones hits his ceiling as a passer -- he's playing for a coaching staff that has obviously gotten a lot from a pocket passer in the past. But what does that really mean within the context of this era of fantasy football? Without the rushing component that the other quarterbacks bring, Jones may be a better superflex bet than a single-quarterback league one.

30. Kenneth Gainwell, RB, Philadelphia Eagles

Pre-Draft Overall Rank: 19
Pre-Draft Positional Rank: 5
Post-Draft Positional Rank: 7
Tier: 10

Our nightmares came true with this running back class, with just four backs being drafted on Day 1 and Day 2. If you had a sleeper running back heading into the draft, then that sleeper back was a Day 3 pick. And Day 3 picks don't pan out at a very high rate.

Among dart throw running backs, Kenneth Gainwell is one of my favorites. Miles Sanders -- among others -- will play ahead of Gainwell in Philadelphia, but the rookie could showcase his talent at times throughout Year 1 given his strong receiving profile. He had the second-highest best-season reception share in this class, and he played ahead of Antonio Gibson at Memphis. That has to count for something.

31. Tylan Wallace, WR, Baltimore Ravens

Pre-Draft Overall Rank: 12
Pre-Draft Positional Rank: 8
Post-Draft Positional Rank: 16
Tier: 10

The biggest faller from these pre- to post-draft rankings is Tylan Wallace. The thought was that Wallace would be a Day 2 pick, but he fell all the way to Pick 131, and he fell to -- of course -- the Baltimore Ravens. He has a complete production profile (aside from not being an early-declare receiver), and his prospect score in my model is well above average for a fourth-round pick. Had he landed in a better situation, it would be an easier sell. In Baltimore as the fourth option at best? That's tough.

32. Chuba Hubbard, RB, Carolina Panthers

Pre-Draft Overall Rank: 24
Pre-Draft Positional Rank: 7
Post-Draft Positional Rank: 8
Tier: 10

Had Chuba Hubbard not played in 2020, he may have been a Day 2 pick. Seriously. His total yards per team play was the absolute best in this draft class after tallying nearly 2,300 yards from scrimmage as a Sophomore. His production then dipped pretty dramatically last year, and the rest is history.

Hubbard landed on a team that'll use him as nothing more than a change-of-pace backup. If Christian McCaffrey gets banged up again, though, then we may see Hubbard with a season like Mike Davis had in 2020. He's capable of that.

33. Elijah Mitchell, RB, San Francisco 49ers

Pre-Draft Overall Rank: N/A
Pre-Draft Positional Rank: N/A
Post-Draft Positional Rank: 9
Tier: 10

You have to have an open mind when analyzing fantasy football. The game is filled with variance -- unpredictable things happen all the time.

So, yes, it's possible that San Francisco ends up liking Elijah Mitchell more than Trey Sermon. I don't see it as probable, but we've seen crazier things happen in Kyle Shanahan's offenses -- especially with players who we peg as speedy, change-of-pace guys, like Raheem Mostert.

That's what we've got with Elijah Mitchell. He's not all that big at about 200 pounds, but he can fly. He ran a 4.38 40-yard dash at his Pro Day, giving him one of the best weight-adjusted 40 times in this class at running back. He's worth a flier late in rookie drafts.

34. Cornell Powell, WR, Kansas City Chiefs

Pre-Draft Overall Rank: N/A
Pre-Draft Positional Rank: N/A
Post-Draft Positional Rank: 17
Tier: 11

When you get to this point in your rookie draft -- especially this year's rookie draft -- you're looking for some sort of story you can tell about a player that shows that he has upside. For Cornell Powell, it has little to do with his analytical profile. In fact, he comes in as a 44th percentile prospect in my model.

But, again, I'm wrong all the time. As is my model. The story for Powell is about situation. The Chiefs no longer have Sammy Watkins, and the number-two wide receiver role is up for grabs. What if Powell is that dude?

35. Dez Fitzpatrick, WR, Tennessee Titans

Pre-Draft Overall Rank: N/A
Pre-Draft Positional Rank: N/A
Post-Draft Positional Rank: 18
Tier: 11

Similar to Powell, Dez Fitzpatrick doesn't really pop in my prospect model. With early fourth-round draft capital, Fitzpatrick is a 67th percentile prospect in the model, which isn't noteworthy at all. He does have decent size and a good breakout age, but his stat score is below average. He's just...fine.

But Tennessee is in need of wide receiver help. Josh Reynolds is currently the team's number-two option, and despite being a run-heavy team, there's some opportunity for a 70- or 80-target season from a non-A.J. Brown receiver in the offense. Maybe that'll end up being Fitzpatrick.

36. Anthony Schwartz, WR, Cleveland Browns

Pre-Draft Overall Rank: N/A
Pre-Draft Positional Rank: N/A
Post-Draft Positional Rank: 19
Tier: 11

The Anthony Schwartz pick by Cleveland seemed to be one that was a better real football move than fantasy one. They could use some speed on offense, and Schwartz brings that, having run a 4.26 40-yard dash at his Pro Day. The fear is that his role in the NFL is just that -- to stretch the field. Maybe Cleveland finds ways to get him the ball in space, but even if that's the case, it's hard to see Schwartz making a quick fantasy impact in Cleveland's run-heavy scheme.