Buy Into Jalen Hurts’ Fantasy Football Upside in 2021

We got all of three full-game starts in Weeks 14-16 from Jalen Hurts late last season, but he made a strong impression on fantasy players in that small sample, recording finishes of QB13, QB1, and QB12 over that span, per FantasyPros. And even in an abridged Week 17 start, in which he was pulled after three quarters in a meaningless game for the Philadelphia Eagles, Hurts still finished as QB18.

The potential has been enough to catapult Hurts into top-10 consideration at the position in 2021 drafts. Over the past two weeks, his average draft position (ADP) in NFC drafts is QB9, going right after Tom Brady and just ahead of Matthew Stafford, Aaron Rodgers, and Ryan Tannehill.

It's no secret that dual-threat quarterbacks bring immense upside, but with question marks surrounding his passing ability, does Hurts already deserve such a high draft spot?

Let's see if we should buy into the hype.

Taking the Good With the Bad

Okay, let's start with the good stuff first.

In the aforementioned three starts Hurts made in Weeks 14-16, he averaged 12.7 carries and 79.3 yards per game while adding one rushing score. And in that three-quarter Week 17 appearance, he logged 8 rushing attempts for 34 yards and 2 scores.

It's easy to see what all the fuss is about.

For context, Lamar Jackson averaged 10.6 rushes and 67.0 yards per game in 2020 and 11.7 and 80.4 in his historic 2019 MVP campaign. Those per-game marks resulted in back-to-back 1,000-yard rushing seasons. Obviously, it would be foolish to assume Hurts will automatically maintain a Lamar-level pace, but it sure looks like he'll be one of the league's most active quarterbacks on the ground.

In fact, even if we dropped Hurts' rush attempts to roughly 8 per game, that would put him in the neighborhood of Kyler Murray, who averaged 8.3 carries last season -- and we all know what kind of fantasy season Murray ultimately had. He wound up finishing with a whopping 819 yards and 11 scores on the ground.

Of course, it isn't all sunshine and rainbows because Hurts didn't exactly excel as a passer in 2020.

Although he did tally a pair of 300-yard passing performances, that was more through sheer volume rather than efficiency, and he ultimately averaged a mere 6.8 adjusted yards per attempt for the season. If he posted that over a full campaign, it would've placed him outside the top 20 among qualified starters, equaling guys like Jared Goff and Mitchell Trubisky.

Additionally, according to numberFire's Net Expected Points (NEP) model, which measures how many "expected" points are added or subtracted on each play, Hurts averaged just 0.07 Passing NEP per drop back, which ranked 28th among the 44 quarterbacks with at least 100 drop backs. He fared even worse in Passing Success Rate -- or the percentage of passing plays that result in expected points -- at just 41.6%, which ranked 39th.

Any way you slice it, Hurts' production as a passer could leave something to be desired this season. But there's still some room for optimism.

He Doesn't Have to Be Perfect

For starters, it can't be overstated just how much Hurts' rushing ability boosts his floor. I know we're hardly breaking new ground on that front, but it's still worth remembering that Hurts may only have to be serviceable through the air to produce in fantasy.

Murray was one of the top fantasy quarterbacks of 2020, but his own passing efficiency wasn't off the charts, as he has only slightly better than Hurts in adjusted yards per attempt (7.1), and in terms of Passing NEP per drop back and Passing Success Rate, he ranked 24th (0.11) and 18th (49.2%) in the respective categories.

Even Cam Newton, whose struggles as a passer in 2020 were well-documented, managed to finish as the QB16 solely with his legs off 592 rushing yards and 12 rushing touchdowns.

Of course, both Murray and Newton benefited by scoring double-digit rushing touchdowns, which will be tough for them or any quarterback to duplicate, but those yards on the ground alone provide a huge boost, and rushing yards have a strong correlation year over year for quarterbacks. numberFire's projections peg Hurts for 595.6 yards and 6.8 touchdowns on the ground, putting him at third and fourth at the position, respectively, giving him an amazing median projection with room for so much more.

As for Hurts' passing outlook, it's worth remembering that there is a laundry list of reasons to give him somewhat of a free pass for last season, between the added difficulties of the pandemic, getting thrust into the lineup late in the season, an underwhelming wide receiver corps, and injuries to the offensive line. In theory, he should be better set up for success as the unquestioned starter with Carson Wentz gone and a full summer to prepare under new coach Nick Sirianni.

The Eagles also added a tantalizing weapon to Hurts' arsenal by spending a first-round pick on receiver DeVonta Smith. While size and durability remain a concern for Smith, there's no question that the Heisman Trophy winner is an intriguing talent who should have an immediate impact. Hurts will also have excellent tight end Dallas Goedert back, and while Jalen Reagor was a massive bust last year, injuries were partially to blame, and perhaps a clean slate helps the 2020 first-rounder take a step forward this season.

Jalen Hurts' 2021 Fantasy Football Projection

In addition to his robust rushing projection, numberFire's model has Hurts throwing for 4,251.1 yards, 26.0 touchdowns, and 14.9 interceptions, making him the QB10 just behind Rodgers and Brady.

But even if we put aside the uncertainty surrounding Rodgers' plans for 2021, I feel comfortable opting for Hurts over either veteran quarterback.

As our JJ Zachariason often discusses, touchdown rate typically regresses to the mean, and both Rodgers and Brady are coming off some of the best touchdown numbers of their careers. Rodgers put up a career-high 9.1% touchdown rate, leading to his most passing scores ever (48), while Brady recorded his third-highest rate (6.6%) and second-most touchdowns (40). Rodgers doesn't run as much as he used to, and Brady has always been a zero in that regard, so without these gaudy touchdown totals, they'll have trouble matching last year's respective outputs.

The other seven signal-callers who project for more fantasy points than Hurts are all more proven commodities while also having at least some running ability in their game, so taking Hurts as the eighth quarterback off the board feels about right.

Sure, there's the risk of him completely flopping as a passer -- we simply don't know -- but barring a true disaster, his ground game should keep his floor high as a top-10 option, and perhaps he even has a path to a Kyler Murray type ceiling if everything breaks right. I'm willing to take my chances to find out.