Fantasy Football: DJ Moore Can Thrive Even With Sam Darnold

You may have seen some love this offseason for DJ Moore's consistency, and it's true that the Carolina Panthers' fourth-year receiver has gotten off to a great start in his NFL campaign.

Moore is one of nine receivers to have at least 950 scrimmage yards in each of the past three seasons and is the only receiver with at least 1,200 scrimmage yards in each of the past two seasons.

You know -- that stuff about his consistent production.

That steadiness -- in spite of Sam Darnold's taking over the Panthers' offense -- has Moore going 46th overall in NFC drafts since the start of July, ranking him as the WR19.

Anecdotally, at least, not many remain high on Darnold, but Moore's production has come from pretty weak quarterback play so far in his career, and the underlying data is promising for him to continue that success.

Quarterbacks With and Without DJ Moore

Moore has three seasons under his belt, and he has been targeted by seven different quarterbacks in that span. Just three of them threw to Moore at least 90 times: Teddy Bridgewater, Kyle Allen, and Cam Newton.

Now, I'm going to show you a table of those three quarterbacks and their splits on passes to Moore and all other receivers since 2016.

Here's the caveat: the expected points data -- from NextGenStats -- will be a bit misleading for the overall point I'm trying to make.

A big reason for that is this interception issues.

Moore has had just 10 receiving scores in his career, and by contrast, 17 passes headed his way were picked off (and 13 of the picks came from Bridgewater, Allen, and Newton, combined).

So, the yards-per-attempt differential clearly favors Moore over other receivers.

The expected points per attempt doesn't so much. However, the in-and-out splits are about on par with Bridgewater and Newton, at least.

Perhaps more importantly, the expected points per attempt numbers take a massive jump with Allen relative to other receivers. Moore elevated Allen, which is what you want to see.

As for Bridgewater, he chucked four touchdowns and six picks directed at Moore, which bogs down the expected points data.

Ultimately, this is all promising.

We know that 1) Moore has produced consistently in all three years thus far, 2) the Panthers' quarterback play has been bad (their adjusted passing offense, per numberFire's metrics, has ranked 19th, 31st, and 23rd in Moore's three years, respectively), and 3) Moore has played above other receiver level for each of his primary passers.

Will There Be a Robby Anderson Issue?

Probably not, no.

Darnold's most productive peer in his career has been Robby Anderson (1,341 yards and 11 touchdowns -- bests for Darnold among any receiver), who is reunited with Darnold in Carolina.

Yes, the duo did put forth an adjusted yards per attempt mark of 16.1 (compared to Darnold's 10.9 career mark to all receivers).

However, in games with Darnold, Anderson, and Jamison Crowder in 2019, Crowder handled 107 targets to Anderson's 82.

That was a 24.3% market share for Crowder and an 18.6% share for Anderson.

Moore, in healthy games in 2020, handled a 23.1% target share and 40.4% air yards share. Anderson's marks were 24.9% and 32.0%, respectively.

Moore isn't on pace to carve out a 30.0% target share, but few receivers are, so we shouldn't balk at Moore's workload entering 2020.

DJ Moore's 2021 Fantasy Football Projections

As a reminder, the average draft position for Moore pits him as the WR19.

numberFire's projections anticipate a WR15 season in half-PPR formats. The projected line for Moore is 147 targets, 91 catches, 1,208 yards, and 7 touchdowns.

He's clustered in tightly with the WR14 to WR19 range, so he's on the high-end of the draft slot.

Even if Darnold's transition to Carolina is underwhelming, it can't be much worse than the always-below-average Panthers passing attack he's had thus far.

And even those terrible passing offenses haven't been able to stop DJ Moore.