The New York Giants' Gimme Onside Kick: Was It the Right Call?

After a crazy reversed fumble out of the end zone, taking a touchdown away from the Redskins at the end of the first half, the referees hit Washington with two unsportsmanlike penalties to be assessed on the opening kickoff of the second half on Sunday. That means Josh Brown would kickoff from the Washington 35-yard line, down three, with a full half of football to go.

Surprise onside kicks convert around 55%, although you have to assume Washington anticipated one -- and they did, as they put their hands team on the field. Defended onside kicks convert only around 15%. So, what was the break-even point to kickoff onside? Seems like a no-brainer, right?