AFC East Division Betting Preview: This Is Still The Bills’ House
We are officially into the preseason, with exhibition games already upon us. With this in mind, we are continuing our division betting previews for the 2022 NFL season. This time, we are focusing on the AFC East. The odds are courtesy of NFL odds, which has odds for every division winner, conference winner, and player prop. You should check it out if you enjoy a flutter.
Looking Back to 2020
2020 saw a changing of the guard in the AFC East. After almost two decades of dominance, the New England Patriots failed to win the division for the first time since 2008. Even worse, they failed to post a winning record for the first time since Bill Belichick's first season, all the way back in 2000, as they limped to a 7-9 record.
The Buffalo Bills were the class of the division and captured their first AFC title since 1995, earning the second-best record in the conference at 13-3. They ultimately made it to the AFC Championship, where they fall to the Kansas City Chiefs.
The Miami Dolphins took massive strides in Brian Flores's second season and earned the No. 2 spot in the East. However, a Week 17 implosion against the Bills saw them finish 10-6, and they became the only 10-win team to miss out on last year's postseason.
As for the New York Jets, their 2-14 campaign cost head coach Adam Gase his job and saw the team finish last in the East for the fifth time in seven seasons. Robert Salah, the former defensive coordinator of the San Francisco 49ers, replaced Gase as head coach. The Jets' two wins were just enough to knock them out of contention for the first overall pick in the 2021 NFL Draft, but they spent the second selection on quarterback Zach Wilson.
2021 Strength of Schedule
| Team | Odds to Win Division | 2021 Strength of Schedule | Implied Probability |
|---|---|---|---|
| Buffalo Bills | -150 | 9th | 60% |
| Miami Dolphins | +330 | 10th | 23.3% |
| New England Patriots | +360 | 19th | 21.7% |
| New York Jets | +1600 | 16th | 5.9% |
The bookies consider the Bills as the favorites to capture the AFC East in 2021. Their offense is stacked with playmakers, from recently extended quarterback Josh Allen to All-Pro wideout Stefon Diggs, as well as secondary pass-catchers like Cole Beasley and Emmanuel Sanders. Sean McDermott will be hoping to get more from his defense in 2021. His charges were firmly in the middle of the pack in terms of points allowed. But the Bills have been blessed with a fairly friendly schedule. They are facing the ninth-softest slate, according to Sharp Football Stats.
The Dolphins are behind the Bills in the betting and just ahead of the Patriots. Both teams should boast fairly strong defenses, but both also face uncertainty at the quarterback spot. The Dolphins will be hoping second-year signal-caller Tua Tagovailoa takes positive steps after an ordinary rookie campaign, while we still don't know whether it will be Cam Newton or Mac Jones under center in New England. However, the Dolphins' schedule is the more favorable of the two, which could be a tie-breaker.
No surprises, but the Jets are seen as distant long shots for the division crown. This is reasonable, as they are in a rebuilding phase with their new coach and quarterback. This is bound to lead to some growing pains. When allied to a fairly neutral strength of schedule, that makes them hard to get behind.
The Pick
It may sound safe and dull, but I cannot advise putting your money on anyone else but the Bills here.
They have unquestionably the best offense in the division and have enough playmakers on the defensive side of the ball to ensure that they shouldn't need to score 30 points every week to remain competitive. The Bills are rightly among the teams favored to represent their conference in the Super Bowl -- FanDuel Sportsbook has them as third-favorites -- and as such should be looked upon as favorites to repeat as AFC East champs for the first time since they won four titles in a row between 1988 and 1991.
If you want to take a punt on a team other than the Bills, then I would side with the Dolphins. They have made improvements every year since Brian Flores arrived, and with Tagovailoa another year removed from his hip injury, plus a relatively friendly schedule, they could be in line to step up should things go south for the Bills. But I wouldn't go planning any luxury cruises on the back of any potential winnings.
