AFC North Division Betting Preview: Get Your Money Down on the Dawg Pound
It's getting ever closer to the kickoff of the next campaign of gridiron action. We are continuing our division betting previews for the 2021 NFL season. This time, we are focusing on the AFC North. The odds are courtesy of NFL odds, which has odds for every division winner, conference winner, and player props, plus a whole lot more.
Looking Back to 2020
The AFC North was the strongest division in the entire NFL in 2020. It produced three teams with at least 11 wins, all of whom made the playoffs. The North was indeed the only division with three teams to make the postseason.
The Pittsburgh Steelers took the division crown thanks to their 12-4 record after an 11-0 start. They were modest offensively, averaging 0.09 Adjusted Net Expected Points (NEP) per play when they had the ball, good for 19th. But their defense was elite, averaging the second-lowest Adjusted NEP per play in the NFL.
The Baltimore Ravens and the Cleveland Browns both finished 11-5, with the Ravens taking second place in the division. They beat the Browns both home and away during the season. It was the third postseason berth in a row for the Ravens, who defeated the Tennessee Titans in the Wild Card round before losing to the Buffalo Bills in the Divisional Round.
For the Browns, it was the first time they had made the playoffs since 2002. They also celebrated with a victory, going into Pittsburgh and cleaning the Steelers' clocks. But they went out after the Divisional Round following a loss in Arrowhead to the Kansas City Chiefs.
As for the Cincinnati Bengals, they were a long way behind their more successful division mates. They posted a 4-11-1 record in Zac Taylor's second season at the helm, giving him a 6-25-1 mark after two seasons. They lost franchise quarterback Joe Burrow to a serious knee injury in Week 11 but are hopeful he'll be back up to speed for the start of the 2021 campaign.
2021 Strength of Schedule
| Team | Odds to Win Division | 2021 Strength of Schedule | Implied Probability |
|---|---|---|---|
| Baltimore Ravens | +115 | 21st | 46.5% |
| Cleveland Browns | +115 | 2nd | 46.5% |
| Pittsburgh Steelers | +440 | 32nd | 18.5% |
| Cincinnati Bengals | +1600 | 25th | 5.9% |
The Ravens and the Browns had identical records in 2020, and the bookies can't separate them again when it comes to their division odds. They are both available at +115, which implies a 46.5% probability of winning the AFC North. Where there is an obvious edge is in terms of the two teams' slate of games. Sharp Football Stats rates the Ravens' schedule as the 12th-hardest in the league. The Browns, however, have the second easiest.
The Steelers, despite their being current division champions, are a long way back in the betting. They face a daunting schedule, with no team expected to face a more difficult path than Mike Tomlin's charges. As expected, the Bengals are distant longshots to take home a division crown they have not won since 2015. Their schedule, while not as tough as the Steelers, is certainly no cakewalk.
The Pick
With two teams available at the same odds, there is no real value in the AFC North.
But if you are looking to place your money on a strong favorite to claim the crown, then I suggest getting your pennies down on the Browns. They seem to be run by adults, both in the front office and on the sidelines. This is a team with a talented young roster and no real weakness on either side of the ball. The Browns also have a ridiculously friendly schedule, befitting a team that finished third place in their division last season.
The Ravens will push them hard, don't get me wrong. But they have question marks surrounding their offense, especially regarding whether or not they have a plan B if they can't get up on teams and then pummel them into submission on the ground. Their schedule is also tougher than the Browns.
As for the other two teams in this division, I am simply not interested in either of them. The Steelers' offense was borderline unwatchable a year ago. While they still own a potent and ferocious defense, I do not trust them to be able to score enough points consistently as they stare down one tough opponent after another in 2021. The crumbling offensive line and an aging Ben Roethlisberger, allied to the murderers' row of a schedule...no thanks.
