Fantasy Football: 5 Bold Predictions for Week 1

One of the things that makes fantasy football so captivating is the variance. Derrick Henry was the RB1 in all of fantasy in 0.5 PPR in 2020, but Henry himself only had 3 weeks as the top fantasy scorer. That means, on individual weeks, some very strange players may lead the league in fantasy points at their positions.

That opens the door for some room to be "spicy" and make some fun predictions. In a landscape increasingly set ablaze by "hot takes", it can be difficult to understand the difference between a bold prediction -- based on a particularly strong spot for a team or player -- and a senseless take with the prayer of becoming correct based on variance.

Let's shoot for the former with five interesting spots to target during this weekend's 16 NFL games.

(All predictions are for half-PPR and FanDuel scoring for quarterbacks.)

1. One (and Possibly Two) DSTs from Jaguars-Texans Will Finish as a Top-5 Defense

This prediction is bold for one reason -- the Jacksonville Jaguars and Houston Texans both are presumed to stink.

According to NFL odds, the Texans' 4.0 win total is the lowest of any team in the NFL, and the Jags are tied for the fourth-worst mark at 6.5. Unsurprisingly with that in mind, both are also bottom-tier defenses according to Pro Football Focus' defensive power rankings from August.

With that said, this game still has the third-lowest total (44.5) of Week 1's slate. Why? Questionable -- at best -- quarterback play. Trevor Lawrence is a rookie, and Tyrod Taylor is officially the starter for the Texans. Taylor's last extended NFL sample was in 2018, where he averaged -0.23 Net Expected Points (NEP) per drop back. For context, that was third-worst in the league for any quarterback with over five attempts.

Mistakes and three-and-outs could be on the docket for much of this game -- especially on the Houston side. That makes both defenses interesting options to stream -- or use in DFS -- with other better games to target skill players in.

2. Austin Ekeler Will Not Finish as a Top-20 Running Back in Week 1

At this point, it feels fantasy football help articles are contractually obligated to talk positively about the offseason "boom" candidate Austin Ekeler, who even has gone inside the top-5 spots in personal season-long drafts. With a new coaching staff, a great young quarterback, and a new offensive coordinator that made Alvin Kamara the dual-threat he is, it makes sense.

However, Week 1 could be rough.

Ekeler draws the Washington Football Team and their stout defensive line. Washington ranked 13th in Rushing NEP last season, which is a good mark in addition to being 3rd overall in Adjusted Defensive NEP per play. Their stronger effort against the pass could not only influence the Los Angeles Chargers' pass catchers but also Ekeler, who averaged eight targets per contest in the last six contests of 2020.

This feels far incredibly bold because of Ekeler's hype entering the season, but he is ranked just 15th amongst numberFire's Week 1 rankings. With plenty of upside in easier matchups behind him in those rankings, Ekeler easily could slide outside the top-20 spots.

3. Both Sam Darnold and Zach Wilson Finish as Top-15 Quarterbacks

Sam Darnold and Zach Wilson will be tied together forever as Wilson replaces Darnold this season as the New York Jets starting quarterback, so it makes perfect sense the two will match up in Wilson's first game.

The Jets' matchup with the Carolina Panthers is one firmly on the radar for DFS stacks and total bets with its rising 45.5 total that started on FanDuel Sportsbook at just 43.5, yet Wilson and Darnold still rank 20th and 22nd respectively in numberFire's Week 1 rankings.

They are currently behind Derek Carr in a brutal matchup with the Baltimore Ravens, as well as both Tyrod Taylor and Trevor Lawrence in a game with the questionable environment referenced previously.

With neither defensive unit projected by PFF to be anything special, this is indeed one of the best sneaky shootout spots of Week 1, and the quarterbacks may be the pieces flying most under-the-radar.

4. Jalen Hurts Scores 25+ Fantasy Points

Considering Jalen Hurts averaged 25.2 fantasy points in his final three games, this prediction may not be bold.

Still, Hurts is ranked by numberFire's draft experts as the QB10 entering the season, so a 25-point outburst would be more likely from Kyler Murray than a low-end QB1.

Enter Hurts' dream Week 1 matchup. The Atlanta Falcons were just 23rd in Adjusted Defensive Passive NEP per play last year, and that was even after rallying strongly in the final contests behind interim coach Raheem Morris.

With a new defensive coordinator, minimal secondary upgrades, and playing against a dynamic quarterback inside a dome, the Falcons could be in huge trouble when it comes to stopping Hurts on Sunday.

The Philadelphia Eagles' market shares are fairly ambiguous heading in 2021 with a new coach and several new players, but Hurts is the one consistent element that could shine.

5. Mark Andrews Finishes as the Top Overall TE for the Week

This is absolutely the boldest one of the bunch. Mark Andrews is going well behind star tight ends, Travis Kelce, George Kittle, and Darren Waller in season-long drafts, but Andrews appears to be the best environment amongst the tight ends who could gobble up the most targets on their team.

Kelce is facing the Cleveland Browns revamped secondary, and Waller sees Andrews' Baltimore Ravens at home. Those are both upper-echelon defensive units entering the season according to PFF.

Kittle's San Francisco 49ers are also taking on the Detroit Lions, and while the matchup is weak, the 49ers are already 7.5-point favorites. It could be possible that they rest Kittle with a lead early, considering he played just nine games last year and put in minimal preseason work.

In the most certain environment of the four, Andrews gets the inexperienced Las Vegas Raiders' secondary. Andrews' largest drawback as a fantasy asset is his inconsistent snap rate, which should at least be fine for Week 1. In four games decided by less than 20 points last year without Nick Boyle, Andrews saw at least 65% of the snaps. If he is the go-to guy again with Boyle still unlikely to see time Monday night, he could feast as the primary option on a Ravens' team with a prop total of 27.5 at FanDuel Sportsbook.