FanDuel Single-Game Daily Fantasy Football Helper: Week 1 Thursday Night (Cowboys at Buccaneers)

On NFL odds, the Tampa Bay Buccaneers are 8.5-point home favorites over the Dallas Cowboys with the over/under at 51.5. The implied outcome is a 30.00-21.50 win for Tampa Bay. Our model projects a 29.24-17.11 Bucs victory.

For those unfamiliar, single-game slates feature five flex spots with identical scoring to the main slate. However, kickers are included in these contests, and there is an "MVP" roster slot. The MVP receives 1.5-times his total fantasy points, making this spot crucial.

Our Brandon Gdula has done a deep dive on single-game strategy. It's worth checking out before you make your lineups.

MVP Candidates

Tom Brady, Buccaneers ($16,000)

Tom Brady will likely be the chalk MVP pick, and it makes perfect sense. The Bucs are implied for 30 points, and they're facing a Dallas secondary that PFF ranks as the second-worst in the league entering 2021. It should be all systems go for the Bucs' offense, which means good things for Brady.

On the negative side, using Brady at MVP means you need to get cute elsewhere. Brady's 6.6% touchdown rate from last year will probably regress this season, and he isn't going to do much in the rushing department outside of quarterback sneaks.

Brady is obviously a great play. We have him pegged for 20.0 FanDuel points. If you're not worried about swallowing chalk, play Brady in the multiplier slot. If you'd prefer not to follow the herd at MVP, put Brady in a flex spot and try your luck with someone else at MVP.

Dak Prescott, Cowboys ($15,000)

Dak Prescott is our top-projected player (20.1 FanDuel points), and he might not be as popular of an MVP pick as he should be. He's my kind of MVP play -- a little different but not too different.

Prescott's health has been a major concern for most of the offseason, but the Cowboys didn't make any notable moves to upgrade their backup situation (unless Will Grier is considered noteable). I could be wrong, but that tells me Dallas isn't too worried about Prescott's health. Either that or they like Cooper Rush.

The matchup is a tough one as he's taking on a Bucs secondary PFF has as the eighth-best, but it's pass-funnel D -- fourth-fewest FanDuel points per game to running backs last year, compared to the 14th-fewest given up to signal callers. Plus, Prescott's legs boost both his floor and his ceiling.

Oh, and Dak was balling out last year before getting hurt, averaging 371.2 passing yards per game with 4 rushing tuds in five games. He may be dropping back to pass a lot tonight if Dallas falls behind.

Ezekiel Elliott, Cowboys ($14,000)

Let's get the negative out of the way -- this is a brutal matchup for Ezekiel Elliott. As we just touched on, the Bucs permitted the fourth-fewest FanDuel points per game to running backs (17.3) a year ago, and they have everyone back.

Zeke's not all that appealing at his lofty salary, and I don't think he'll see as high of a draft percentage -- overall and at MVP -- as he normally does on single-gamers. I'm not sure I'll use him as my multiplier, but I'm always going to be interested in the chance to get a high-volume back at a lower-than-usual draft percentage.

We have Zeke totaling 19 touches (15 carries and 4 grabs) and 0.68 touchdowns (0.48 rushing and 0.20 receiving). That's the top non-quarterback touchdown projection, and our model lists him at 15.5 FanDuel points -- 2.7 clear of any other non-passer.

Flex Priorities

Mike Evans, Buccaneers ($13,000)

It's tough to decide between Evans and Chris Godwin ($12,500). You could roll with both if you want to put Brady at MVP and bank on him throwing touchdowns to each. Our projections have Evans (12.8 FanDuel points) and Godwin (12.5) nearly even. You can make a solid case for either as an MVP choice, as well, since this is a blowup spot for the Bucs' offense.

Last season, Godwin recorded an 18.9% target share and 84.5% snap share, per PlayerProfiler. Evans had an 18.0% target share and 79.4% snap rate. But what pushes me to Evans is the touchdown equity. Evans was targeted on a whopping 28.6% of the Bucs' passes inside the five last year. Godwin had just a 14.3% target share in that split.

CeeDee Lamb, Cowboys ($10,000)

CeeDee Lamb feels like something of a free square on this slate, and I'm expecting him to be chalky. There's a $2,000 salary difference between he and Amari Cooper ($12,000), and our projections -- 12.7 FanDuel points for Cooper and 12.1 for Lamb -- don't warrant that big of a salary gap.

Lamb has been hyped up as a breakout candidate, and while the matchup is difficult, he's more than capable of producing in this spot. Our algorithm projects him as the best point-per-dollar play among non-quarterbacks.

Ronald Jones, Buccaneers ($9,500)

If you don't play Brady at MVP, you're banking on him not throwing a bunch of touchdowns. If that happens and the Bucs live up to their implied total, Tampa's running game likely punches in a score or two.

Will it be Ronald Jones or Leonard Fournette ($11,000)? No idea.

We have Fournette (8.6 FanDuel points) and Jones (7.9) forecasted for similar outputs, so I'm inclined to take the $1,500 in savings and roll with Jones. However, the masses will likely do the same, which gives Fournette appeal if you have the coin.

For what it's worth, Jones is listed atop the Bucs' official depth chart.

Antonio Brown, Buccaneers ($9,000)

Antonio Brown had a really productive year last season, averaging 11.8 FanDuel points per game across his eight games (the 26th-most). He registered a 19.9% target share.

Those stats may not seem all that impressive, but when you consider that AB came into the fold midseason and had to battle Evans and Godwin for targets, those are really good numbers.

Brown might take a step forward in 2021, and the party could start tonight against a beatable Cowboys pass defense. We project Brown for 9.7 FanDuel points, and he is the top point-per-dollar play among those with a salary under $10,000.

Value/Differentiators

Michael Gallup, Cowboys ($9,000)

Michael Gallup should slip through the cracks. His salary is just $1,000 less than Lamb's, and he figures to be third in the pecking order among Dallas' wideouts.

Last year, Gallup got a ton of run, playing 88.3% of the snaps, which was the 12th-highest rate among all wideouts. He also logged a respectable 17.1% target share. In a game that profiles as one in which the Cowboys will be staring at a negative game script, Gallup could hit for a contrarian touchdown.

Dalton Schultz ($6,500) or Blake Jarwin ($6,000)

Tight ends are mostly a waste in single-game DFS outside of the elite options, so when you have the chance to write up two meh tight ends who are in a timeshare, you gotta do it.

The main reason I'm mentioning these guys is the cap relief they offer, but you can tell yourself a tale about one of them having a decent game. If you're loading up on the Bucs and expecting Dallas to get smoked, Blake Jarwin or Dalton Schultz can be a run-it-back piece. And one of the only positions to have some success against this Buccaneers D last year was tight ends as Tampa Bay surrendered the 10th-most FanDuel points per game to the position.

As for who you should play between the two, our model leans toward Jarwin. We project him to score 4.7 points, compared to 2.7 for Schultz. Dallas' official depth chart, however, ranks Schultz as the number-one tight end. In the last preseason game these two played, Schultz held a 12-10 snap advantage over Jarwin.