NFL

Fantasy Football: Adjusted Fantasy Points and Positional Success Rates Allowed Through Week 1

Brandon Gdula  —  @gdula13 Sep 14th, 2021

As fantasy football players, we need to study matchups each and every week.

How exactly to determine the best matchups can be tricky, but rather than look just at yards per carry or passing yards per game allowed, we have better alternatives.

Fantasy points per game allowed to opponents can get us an idea of where weak points are, but why not adjust those to opponent level? By that, I don't even mean simply team-level adjustments. After all, we know that holding DeAndre Hopkins in check is more impressive than stifling teammate A.J. Green. Once we get more data, these numbers will adjust themselves to contextualize for opponents at the player-level.

I also like to lean on numberFire's Net Expected Points (NEP) metric in various ways. NEP indicates expected points gained for a team's offense -- or denied by a team's defense.

Here's a good example of why it matters. A 15-yard catch looks great on paper, especially compared to a 5-yard catch. But if the 15-yarder comes on 3rd-and-20, it's not very impactful. If the shorter gain comes on 3rd-and-2, it's a significant play and boosts the offense's scoring expectation. It was a success.

Adding this context can show us which teams defend positions well and which teams may have their traditional stats inflated by plays that don't matter as much as others.

You can view our overall, opponent-adjusted passing and rushing defense numbers on our team rankings page, but here's a breakdown of success rates allowed to the various positions across the NFL through Week 1's games.

For defensive purposes, lower success rates, expected points, and fantasy points allowed numbers allowed are better. Tables are sorted as such.

Quarterback Pass Defense

Team Defense QB Pass NEP/
Drop Back 		Rank Passing
Success
Rate 		Rank Adj.
FP/DB 		Rank Avg.
Rank
NO -0.41 1 37.8% 2 0.62 1 1.3
ARI -0.32 2 39.0% 3 0.74 5 3.3
PHI -0.26 3 40.5% 5 0.64 2 3.3
CAR -0.07 6 39.5% 4 0.86 12 7.3
PIT -0.01 8 44.4% 10 0.73 4 7.3
LAC -0.23 4 36.4% 1 0.89 18 7.7
BUF 0.01 9 44.1% 8 0.80 7 8.0
SF -0.06 7 43.3% 7 0.87 14 9.3
LA -0.17 5 53.5% 22 0.64 3 10.0
DEN 0.08 12 48.7% 13 0.84 8 11.0
LV 0.12 14 42.4% 6 0.87 13 11.0
NE 0.10 13 44.8% 11 0.84 11 11.7
HOU 0.04 11 44.2% 9 0.89 19 13.0
NYJ 0.18 16 47.2% 12 0.88 16 14.7
SEA 0.04 10 48.8% 14 0.90 20 14.7
WSH 0.26 20 55.1% 26 0.80 6 17.3
MIA 0.22 18 55.0% 25 0.84 10 17.7
BAL 0.27 21 50.8% 18 0.87 15 18.0
CIN 0.32 22 50.0% 15 0.88 17 18.0
MIN 0.21 17 50.0% 15 1.04 23 18.3
KC 0.34 23 56.7% 27 0.84 9 19.7
DAL 0.15 15 54.0% 24 1.04 25 21.3
NYG 0.40 25 52.6% 19 0.95 22 22.0
TB 0.25 19 57.6% 29 0.92 21 23.0
ATL 0.37 24 52.8% 20 1.08 26 23.3
JAC 0.47 26 52.9% 21 1.04 24 23.7
TEN 0.54 28 50.0% 15 1.21 28 23.7
IND 0.59 29 53.8% 23 1.47 31 27.7
CLE 0.54 27 60.5% 32 1.13 27 28.7
DET 0.66 30 59.3% 30 1.23 29 29.7
GB 0.89 31 57.1% 28 1.70 32 30.3
CHI 0.90 32 59.3% 30 1.38 30 30.7
NFL Average 0.17 49.3% 0.92

Running Back Rush Defense

Team
Defense 		RB Rush
NEP/Carry 		Rank RB Rush
SR% 		Rank Adj.
Rushing
FDP/Carry 		Rank Avg.
Rank
BUF -0.21 6 18.8% 1 0.87 3 3.3
TB -0.23 4 28.6% 4 0.92 6 4.7
CAR -0.24 3 35.3% 10 0.85 2 5.0
DEN -0.22 5 35.7% 11 0.82 1 5.7
ARI -0.20 7 26.3% 3 0.94 8 6.0
CLE -0.12 10 31.3% 5 0.89 4 6.3
NO -0.11 11 33.3% 9 0.90 5 8.3
CIN -0.33 1 31.8% 7 1.16 20 9.3
DAL -0.28 2 53.8% 26 0.94 9 12.3
SEA -0.03 17 42.3% 15 0.93 7 13.0
MIA -0.09 12 44.8% 18 0.99 11 13.7
BAL -0.18 8 31.3% 5 1.62 29 14.0
IND -0.07 15 42.1% 14 1.13 19 16.0
PIT -0.17 9 46.7% 22 1.09 18 16.3
JAC -0.05 16 37.8% 12 1.23 22 16.7
LV -0.02 18 23.8% 2 1.62 30 16.7
NYJ 0.01 21 42.9% 16 1.05 14 17.0
GB 0.00 19 45.2% 20 1.01 13 17.3
TEN 0.05 24 42.9% 16 1.00 12 17.3
NE 0.04 23 47.1% 23 0.99 10 18.7
NYG 0.03 22 32.0% 8 1.41 28 19.3
MIN -0.08 14 52.9% 24 1.20 21 19.7
ATL -0.08 13 54.2% 27 1.30 23 21.0
LAC 0.00 20 57.1% 29 1.05 14 21.0
WSH 0.06 26 41.2% 13 1.31 24 21.0
PHI 0.08 28 45.8% 21 1.07 16 21.7
SF 0.05 25 45.0% 19 1.35 25 23.0
HOU 0.07 27 57.1% 29 1.08 17 24.3
CHI 0.15 29 52.9% 24 1.36 26 26.3
LA 0.22 31 54.5% 28 1.40 27 28.7
KC 0.16 30 61.9% 31 1.99 31 30.7
DET 0.87 32 100.0% 32 3.35 32 32.0
NFL Average -0.04 42.7% 1.17

Receiving Defense vs. Position

(This table is sorted by adjusted fantasy points per target allowed to wide receivers.)

Note: Top-five units are listed in red, meaning they'd be tougher for an opposing fantasy player. Green cells would indicate more promising matchups for our fantasy players.

Team
Defense 		RB Adj.
FDP/Tgt 		Rank WR Adj.
FDP/Tgt 		Rank TE Adj.
FDP/Tgt 		Rank
PHI 0.85 10 0.84 1 0.83 11
LA 1.05 15 0.86 2 0.92 13
NO 0.88 11 0.93 3 0.84 12
PIT 0.46 3 0.99 4 1.53 21
BUF 0.30 1 1.09 5 1.40 18
LAC 0.55 4 1.15 6 3.50 32
SF 1.31 26 1.16 7 1.85 25
ARI 0.91 12 1.23 8 0.68 7
HOU 0.85 9 1.31 9 1.83 24
MIA 1.09 19 1.33 10 1.41 19
WSH 0.70 5 1.35 11 0.79 10
TB 1.08 18 1.50 12 1.10 15
DEN 0.34 2 1.56 13 0.36 3
NYJ 1.35 27 1.61 14 0.76 9
NE 1.08 17 1.61 15 0.35 2
DAL 0.74 7 1.63 16 3.13 31
NYG 0.83 8 1.64 17 1.50 20
CIN 1.05 15 1.66 18 1.02 14
KC 1.15 22 1.67 19 1.55 22
CLE 1.47 28 1.69 20 2.93 30
BAL 1.25 23 1.70 21 1.13 16
LV 0.99 14 1.79 22 0.58 5
CAR 0.70 5 1.83 23 0.71 8
JAC 1.30 25 1.91 24 1.24 17
ATL 0.94 13 1.99 25 2.30 28
MIN 1.10 20 2.01 26 2.25 27
SEA 1.12 21 2.13 27 0.60 6
TEN 1.58 29 2.26 28 0.00 1
DET 1.60 30 2.49 29 1.96 26
CHI 2.20 32 2.56 30 1.55 22
IND 1.28 24 3.26 31 2.84 29
GB 1.68 31 4.90 32 0.55 4
NFL Average1.05 1.61 1.34