NFL Week 3 Power Rankings: Which Teams Are Separating From the Pack?
Everyone has his or her own set of NFL power rankings, but not all of them are computer-driven, algorithmically-derived approaches that look at underlying data to figure out true team strength.
But numberFire's power rankings do.
Using our nERD metric, which indicates the expected point differential against an average opponent on a neutral field, here is how our model ranks and rates all 32 teams after two weeks of games.
| Team | Record | nERD | nERD Rank | Rank Change | xWins Next 3 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jaguars | 0-2 | -7.28 | 32 | 0 | 0.9 |
| Jets | 0-2 | -6.16 | 31 | -1 | 1.1 |
| Falcons | 0-2 | -5.93 | 30 | -2 | 1.3 |
| Lions | 0-2 | -5.67 | 29 | 2 | 0.9 |
| Giants | 0-2 | -3.61 | 28 | -1 | 1.1 |
The crop of 0-2 teams isn't complete here -- the Indianapolis Colts are 22nd in nERD and the Minnesota Vikings are much higher -- but this tier is all winless and at least a field goal worse than the average squad so far on the season.
Things could get a little bit better for the Atlanta Falcons, who could be in play for multiple wins in their next three games. They travel to face the New York Giants (28th in nERD) and then host the Washington Football Team (20th) and the New York Jets (31st). This three-game lookahead excludes a road matchup with the 27th-ranked Miami Dolphins before the schedule tightens back up in Week 8 against the Carolina Panthers.
| Team | Record | nERD | nERD Rank | Rank Change | xWins Next 3 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dolphins | 1-1 | -3.50 | 27 | -13 | 1.1 |
| Bears | 1-1 | -3.07 | 26 | 3 | 1.4 |
| Texans | 1-1 | -2.71 | 25 | 0 | 1.0 |
| Titans | 1-1 | -2.32 | 24 | 0 | 1.7 |
| Bengals | 1-1 | -2.24 | 23 | 0 | 1.6 |
| Colts | 0-2 | -2.16 | 22 | -4 | 1.2 |
The Dolphins dropped substantially after a Week 2 demolition by the Buffalo Bills, and now, Tua Tagovailoa is dealing with a rib injury, and Jacoby Brissett posted the fourth-worst passing performance of Week 2 by our Passing Net Expected Points (NEP) metric.
Despite an 0-2 record, the Colts find themselves dropping only four spots after a three-point loss to a great Los Angeles Rams team. However, they have their own quarterback injury: Carson Wentz has sprained both ankles.
| Team | Record | nERD | nERD Rank | Rank Change | xWins Next 3 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Raiders | 2-0 | -1.40 | 21 | 5 | 1.6 |
| Football Team | 1-1 | -0.96 | 20 | 2 | 1.3 |
| Packers | 1-1 | -0.90 | 19 | 2 | 1.3 |
| Browns | 1-1 | 0.16 | 18 | -2 | 1.5 |
| Steelers | 1-1 | 0.57 | 17 | -7 | 1.7 |
| Patriots | 1-1 | 0.71 | 16 | 3 | 1.4 |
| Eagles | 1-1 | 0.92 | 15 | -4 | 1.3 |
| Chargers | 1-1 | 0.96 | 14 | -2 | 1.6 |
| Vikings | 0-2 | 1.07 | 13 | 4 | 1.9 |
The nERD algorithm is still late to the party with the Las Vegas Raiders, who climbed from a -2.92 to a -1.40 after a second straight win over AFC North opponents. Derek Carr has been one of the NFL's most efficient passers, and his Passing NEP score (37.54) has him third in the NFL behind only Matthew Stafford (39.84) and Patrick Mahomes (39.42).
The Vikings are still rating out with a positive nERD score despite their 0-2 record. They'll be tested again in Week 3 against the Seattle Seahawks and have just one matchup against a team outside the top 20 in nERD (Week 5 against the Detroit Lions) before Week 13, when they repeat against Detroit.
| Team | Record | nERD | nERD Rank | Rank Change | xWins Next 3 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Broncos | 2-0 | 1.14 | 12 | 8 | 1.7 |
| Cowboys | 1-1 | 1.57 | 11 | 2 | 1.8 |
| Seahawks | 1-1 | 1.80 | 10 | -2 | 1.3 |
| Cardinals | 2-0 | 2.26 | 9 | -5 | 1.6 |
| Ravens | 1-1 | 2.71 | 8 | -1 | 1.9 |
| Saints | 1-1 | 3.28 | 7 | -6 | 1.9 |
| Chiefs | 1-1 | 3.38 | 6 | -3 | 1.6 |
Teddy Bridgewater and the Denver Broncos are 2-0 with a 24-point point differential (and a 17.5-point spread-adjusted point differential that accounts for pre-game spread). They have climbed eight spots and get another winnable game against the Jets in Week 3. Their schedule isn't that daunting but does tighten up starting in Week 9.
The Arizona Cardinals' offense seems unstoppable right now. They're currently ranked third in total yards and are tied for first in touchdowns behind Kyler Murray and the explosive playmakers they have. After a Week 3 matchup with the Jacksonville Jaguars (32nd in nERD), they face the Rams (spoiler alert: 1st) and the San Francisco 49ers (5th).
| Team | Record | nERD | nERD Rank | Rank Change | xWins Next 3 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 49ers | 2-0 | 3.70 | 5 | 1 | 1.8 |
| Panthers | 2-0 | 3.80 | 4 | 11 | 1.8 |
| Buccaneers | 2-0 | 5.42 | 3 | 2 | 1.8 |
| Bills | 1-1 | 5.88 | 2 | 6 | 2.1 |
| Rams | 2-0 | 6.80 | 1 | 1 | 1.9 |
The Carolina Panthers are easily the most surprising team in the top five, four of which are from the NFC. Carolina's second straight win, this one over the New Orleans Saints (last week's top-ranked team), helped them surge from a 0.47 nERD and a 15th-place ranking to a 3.80 nERD and a 4th-place ranking. Sam Darnold is running a top-10 offense by our NEP metrics, but it's their defense that leads in success rate allowed.
The Rams were the obvious choice for the top slot after the Saints were pummeled in Week 2. The Rams' offense is sixth in success rate, yet their defense is bottom 10 thus far. It's something to keep an eye on, but it's impossible to argue with the results through two games.
