FanDuel Single-Game Daily Fantasy Football Helper: Week 3 Sunday Night (Packers at 49ers)
On NFL odds, the San Francisco 49ers are 3.0-point home favorites versus the Green Bay Packers, and the total is at 50.5 points. That makes the implied score 26.75-23.75.
For those unfamiliar, single-game slates feature five flex spots with identical scoring to the main slate. However, kickers are included in these contests, and there is an "MVP" roster slot. The MVP receives 1.5-times his total fantasy points, making this spot crucial.
Our Brandon Gdula has done a deep dive on single-game strategy. It's worth checking out before you make your lineups.
MVP Candidates
Aaron Rodgers, Packers ($16,000)
Despite the Packers being underdogs, the three highest-projected players, per our model, come from Green Bay. I guess that's not that surprising given how much the Packers' offense funnels through Aaron Rodgers, Davante Adams and Aaron Jones.
While this is a difficult road matchup against a solid San Fran D, the 49ers are allowing the sixth-most FanDuel points per game to quarterbacks (25.9) so far this year.
After a dud in Week 1, Rodgers predictably bounced back in Week 2 with 255 yards and 4 touchdowns in a cozy matchup with the Detroit Lions. I don't love him in this spot, but he has to be on the MVP radar on any single-game slate he's a part of.
Rodgers is projected for a slate-leading 19.5 FanDuel points -- 2.5 more than anyone else.
Aaron Jones, Packers ($13,000)
Jones is coming off a huge four-tud day in said game against the Lions, and that may push his MVP popularity higher than it should be. But our model is into him, projecting him for 17.0 FanDuel points and ranking him as the top point-per-dollar option.
Despite the huge game, Jones hasn't gotten much going on the ground yet this year, rushing for just 76 yards on 22 carries. He does, however, have 8 grabs for 61 yards and 3 scores as a pass-catcher.
With A.J. Dillon yet to play more than 29% of the snaps in either game in 2021, Jones' volume is MVP-worthy in spite of the tough matchup.
Jimmy Garoppolo, 49ers ($13,000)
Jimmy Garoppolo is my favorite MVP play of the slate. As the signal-caller for the favored side, Jimmy G isn't going to go completely overlooked, but I think he may see less MVP love than the Packers' Big Three do.
It's a small sample, but Green Bay has given up good fantasy days to both Jameis Winston (29.62) and Jared Goff (19.44) through two weeks.
Garoppolo has posted 14.76 and 19.56 FanDuel points this campaign, with the low score coming in a game in which San Fran attempted only 25 passes due to a positive game script. Facing Rodgers and company, the 49ers should have to be a little more aggressive on Sunday night, and they're likely to be short-handed in the backfield. It could lead to Garoppolo posting a big score.
We project him for 15.9 FanDuel points.
Davante Adams, Packers ($14,000)
Adams has yet to have a blowup game this year, but he was excellent in Week 2, catching 8 of 9 targets for 121 scoreless yards. We know Adams gets elite usage from one of the game's premier passers, so the spike week is coming at some point.
Maybe it happens here. He rocked this D for 10 receptions, 173 yards and a score in 2020.
Our algorithm has him going for 16.8 FanDuel points.
Flex Priorities
George Kittle, 49ers ($11,500)
Deebo Samuel ($13,000) has been the key cog so far in this passing attack, but I'm going to play off recency bias and load up on George Kittle.
Kittle -- who we have scoring 13.0 FanDuel points -- has played 95% and 100% of the Niners' snaps through two weeks, and while his 9 targets leave something to be desired, he's caught 8 of them for 95 yards.
Green Bay is allowing the third-most FanDuel points per game (17.8) to tight ends, and Kittle's 2021 bust-out game could come in this matchup.
Trey Sermon, 49ers ($8,500)
It seems like Kyle Shanahan and the Niners' coaches aren't big fans of Trey Sermon, but with all the injuries in San Francisco's backfield, they may not have much of a choice -- they might have to run him out there.
As of Saturday morning, it looks like Elijah Mitchell will likely be out, although that can change before Sunday night. Mitchell's absence would likely lead to a good role for Sermon. It's hard to feel good about him, but the matchup is there. The Packers gave up the sixth-most FanDuel points per game (24.1) to the position a year ago.
Our projections will change as we get more news on the Niners' backfield, but we currently have Sermon slated for 10.4 FanDuel points and rank him as the slate's second-best point-per-dollar play.
Value/Differentiators
Brandon Aiyuk, 49ers ($9,500)
This slate goes from high-end studs to dart throws real quick.
I wish there was even more of a salary discount on Brandon Aiyuk, who has been one of fantasy football's most disappointing assets through two weeks. But his lack of production and the $9,500 salary should keep the masses off him, making it a nice time to pounce.
Things are trends up for him. After playing 47% of the snaps in Week 1 and going without a target, he logged a 54% snap rate with 2 targets last week, running as the Niners' number-two wideout in terms of snaps.
Whatever the issue is with Aiyuk, I'm willing to bet on his talent as he looked like a true difference-maker as a rookie. I wouldn't expect anything too crazy, but I am intrigued by the idea of getting a quality talent at a modest salary and likely low draft percentage.
Marquez Valdes-Scantling, Packers ($7,500)
Marquez Valdes-Scantling has been a real bummer this year, hauling in only 3 of 12 targets for 17 yards. Yuck.
But the 12 targets are a positive sign. No other Green Bay wideout has more than four. And we know the deal with MVS, who sees a lot of downfield looks, which are extremely volatile. He's got the upside to be a vital piece on this slate if he hits on one of those big plays.
