Super Bowl Futures Betting Update: Week 4
The topsy turvy start to the 2021 NFL season shows no signs of abating soon after another wild weekend of action in Week 3.
The most recent results have seen a major impact on each team's chances of tasting ultimate glory at the end of the season. FanDuel Sportsbook's most recent Super Bowl odds can attest to this fact. Here is how their numbers stack up with our model's.
| TEAM | Odds | Implied Probability | NF Odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| Kansas City Chiefs | +600 | 14.3% | 10.7% |
| Tampa Bay Buccaneers | +650 | 13.3% | 12.9% |
| Buffalo Bills | +950 | 9.5% | 10.7% |
| Los Angeles Rams | +950 | 9.5% | 9.9% |
| Green Bay Packers | +1200 | 7.7% | 5.9% |
| Baltimore Ravens | +1300 | 7.1% | 6.1% |
| Cleveland Browns | +1300 | 7.1% | 6.1% |
| San Francisco 49ers | +1500 | 6.3% | 3.6% |
| Dallas Cowboys | +2400 | 4.0% | 5.4% |
| Tennessee Titans | +2500 | 3.8% | 1.3% |
| Los Angeles Chargers | +2600 | 3.7% | 3.3% |
| Seattle Seahawks | +2700 | 3.6% | 1.2% |
| New Orleans Saints | +3300 | 2.9% | 3.2% |
| Denver Broncos | +3300 | 2.9% | 4.3% |
| Arizona Cardinals | +3400 | 2.9% | 3.2% |
| Minnesota Vikings | +3700 | 2.6% | 2.1% |
| Las Vegas Raiders | +4100 | 2.4% | 1.6% |
| New England Patriots | +5000 | 2.0% | 1.1% |
| Carolina Panthers | +6000 | 1.6% | 2.9% |
| Miami Dolphins | +7000 | 1.4% | 0.4% |
| Indianapolis Colts | +7000 | 1.4% | 0.3% |
| Pittsburgh Steelers | +7500 | 1.3% | 0.6% |
| Washington | +7500 | 1.3% | 0.2% |
| Philadelphia Eagles | +10000 | 1.0% | 0.8% |
| Chicago Bears | +12000 | 0.8% | 0.0% |
| Cincinnati Bengals | +12000 | 0.8% | 1.9% |
| Atlanta Falcons | +15000 | 0.7% | 0.0% |
| New York Giants | +28000 | 0.4% | 0.1% |
| Jacksonville Jaguars | +100000 | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Houston Texans | +100000 | 0.1% | 0.2% |
| Detroit Lions | +100000 | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| New York Jets | +100000 | 0.1% | 0.0% |
While the Kansas City Chiefs remain the Super Bowl favorites in the eyes of the bookies, they have dropped to second place by our metrics. They are currently the 14th-best team in the NFL, according to our nERD metric. The Tampa Bay Buccaneers are the new favorites, according to our numbers, with the Chiefs joint second with the Buffalo Bills, who incidentally are our number-one team, per nERD.
The Los Angeles Chargers' win at Arrowhead against the Chiefs saw them, if you'll forgive the pun, charge up the betting ranks. They are now available at +2600, whereas a week ago you could have got them at +3400. Their AFC West rivals, the Denver Broncos, also got a boost as they continued their unbeaten start to the season. The Broncos are now at +3300.
Fast-falling out of contention in the eyes of the bookies are the Pittsburgh Steelers. Their second straight home loss, this one to the Cincinnati Bengals, has seen their Super Bowl odds increase to +7500, putting them a long way behind the Baltimore Ravens and Cleveland Browns inside their division.
The Chicago Bears' hapless showing in Justin Fields' first career start has had a massive impact on their title odds. They fell to +12000 from +7000 a week ago. There are only three NFC teams with longer Super Bowl odds than the Bears heading into Week 4.
