Week 4 Game Scripts to Target in Daily Fantasy Football

Welcome to the Game Scripts to Target article for the 2021 season. Each week, we'll be taking a look at specific games to target for daily fantasy tournaments. Stacking games has always been a popular option in GPPs, as it allows you to reach for upside with the back-and-forth scoring.

Dissecting game scripts should be a huge part of your process when building lineups in NFL daily fantasy.

How will the game play out? Will it be high-paced with lots of potential for fantasy points to be scored? Does it set up well for one team, both teams, or neither? A running back could go from a lock one week as a home favorite to a complete avoid the next as a double-digit road underdog because the expected game scripts in these contests are completely different.

Projecting these outcomes can be extremely difficult for one person. We can use the lines and totals to see what oddsmakers think and go from there. A great resource is numberFire's Daily Fantasy Matchup Heat Map, which provides betting-related numbers -- implied totals, over/unders, and spreads -- as well as custom metrics that show how the teams will match up against each other. This gives us a much better handle on how games are likely to play out, and we can take advantage of that in our lineups.

Let's look at some game scripts to target for this week.

Arizona Cardinals at Los Angeles Rams

With two electric offenses going up against each other, we are primed for plenty of points.

A 55.0-point over/under and a close 4.5-spread are great indicators that we are looking at a game to stack. Both offenses have proven that they can put up points in a hurry, and it should create a dynamic and fantasy-friendly game with plenty of upside. The Arizona Cardinals (103) have scored the most points in the league, while the Los Angeles Rams (95) aren't that far behind with the third-most points. This is a powder keg of scoring and fantasy points waiting to happen. Let's jump in.

Despite scoring an immense amount of points, both teams are in the bottom half of the league in seconds per play overall with the Rams (27.84 sec/play) 20th and the Cardinals (29.88 sec/play) 26th. However, when they are in a situation-neutral game environment, the Rams vault all the way up to the fastest team in the league, while the Cardinals jump to the 14th-fastest.

Most game stacks have one team that is likely to be more popular than the other, which creates an opportunity to be contrarian during lineup construction. That shouldn't be the case this week as both offenses have shown immense fantasy potential this season. I'm not expecting a massive discrepancy in roster percentages between the two sides.

We'll start with the visiting Cardinals, who are led by quarterback Kyler Murray ($8,200). Murray is off to an amazing start, going for at least 289 passing yards in each of his three games and a total of 10 touchdowns so far. He failed to record a passing touchdown last week but still managed to run one in and ended with 19.54 FanDuel points. His upside for 30-plus points is borderline unmatched on this or any slate, and he should be a top option once again this week.

Deciding on who to pair with Murray is the main decision for this game stack, and there are a ton of different ways to approach it.

Frankly, I have very little interest in either Chase Edmonds ($6,100) or James Conner ($5,500). Edmonds (62.4%) has played on more snaps than Conner (42.1%) this season. Edmonds has tied or out-touched Conner in all three games but still hasn't found the end zone. Edmonds is the better option in the passing game with 17 targets through three games, compared to Conner's 1 target. Conner was able to find his way into the end zone twice last week, which is clearly a ceiling game for him and not something I'm looking to chase.

The wide receivers are where the fantasy points are for the Cardinals' offense but with four viable options, there's a lot to break down.

The Cardinals run in three-receiver sets 38% of the time, which is the fourth-lowest in the league, according to SharpFootballStats. That's surprisingly low for such a pass-heavy offense, but we do see them running out of four-receiver sets 21% of the time, which leads the league. The receivers are the focus of their offense, and that should be the focus of your game stacks.

DeAndre Hopkins ($7,600) is tied for the team lead (18) in targets and touchdowns (3) but is fourth in yards (158). Hopkins asw back at practice on Thursday after missing a few days and appears to be good to go for the game. Usually, Hopkins offers a massive ceiling every week, but we haven't seen that yet in this year's version of the Cardinals' offense. I'm 100% going to be stacking Murry with Hopkins, and I know the risks going in.

A.J. Green ($5,600) has been the butt of many jokes in the fantasy industry for being "washed," but he has 18 targets this season, tying him with Hopkins for the team lead. Green also has more yards (181) than Hopkins but only a single touchdown. Green is $2,000 cheaper than Hopkins and -- dare I say -- is being just as, if not more, productive. I expect Hopkins to be more popular than Green and to carry higher upside, but the savings and production Green brings is noteworthy

Christian Kirk ($6,000) is right behind Hopkins and Green with 17 targets of his own while leading the team in receiving yards (239) and sitting second in touchdowns (2). Kirk also leads the team with a 15.4 average depth of target (aDOT), presenting plenty of big-play potential.

The wild cards of the Cardinals' offense are Rondale Moore ($5,300) and Maxx Williams ($4,500), who have 13 and 11 targets, respectively. The issue for Moore is the fact he has played on only 36.8% of the snaps and has run a route on 45.8% of passing plays. He's shown plenty of speed and big-play potential, but unless he gets more involved, the floor will be very low each week.

Williams has been a bit of a surprise in the past two weeks and has now played on 75.8% of the snaps, running a route on 58.9% of passing plays. He's a clear way to be contrarian within this game stack and is a decent punt at the position.

A stack of Murray plus two of his wide receivers is a clear path to upside, while Murray plus Edmonds and one wide receiver is just a step behind.

On the Rams' side of things, Matthew Stafford ($7,800) is looking great in his first few games with his new team, passing for at least 278 yards and 2 touchdowns in each of his three games. He doesn't have the same rushing potential that Murray has, but Stafford is just a bit less expensive this week. Stafford still has plenty of multi-touchdown upside and is an elite stacking option both in this game and this slate overall.

There's one clear top option in the Rams' offense, and that is Cooper Kupp ($8,600), who has been flat-out unbelievable to start the season. His 20.3, 32.3, and 26.1 FanDuel points in the first three weeks have vaulted him to the overall WR1 early this season, and he shouldn't be slowing down now. The Cardinals are allowing the 10th-most (33.8) FanDuel points per game to receivers this season, a level we know Kupp can reach or exceed.

Kupp is the top option, and then it gets a little messy for the Rams' offense. Running back Darrell Henderson ($6,000) is set to return this week after missing last week's game due to a rib injury. Henderson played on 79.8% of the snaps in the first two games and was clearly the primary running back ahead of Sony Michel ($5,800).

We can probably all agree that Robert Woods ($6,200) is still a good receiver, but we haven't seen that version of him this season. A solid 19 targets through the first three weeks is nothing to shy away from, but the 64 yards or fewer in every game and only a single touchdown is rather uninspiring. Woods is a fun pivot away from Kupp, who should be significantly chalky.

Van Jefferson ($5,400) is somewhat intriguing since he has played on 80.2% of the offensive snaps and has run a route on 84.5% of the passing plays. Both of those are among the top three for the Rams' offensive weapons.

Stackings Stafford with Kupp is the chalk way to get exposure to the Rams' offense. Then you could take a shot with either Henderson, Woods or Jefferson. I'd look to bring the game stack back with Kirk, Hopkins, or Green -- in that order. This should give you enough salary flexibility as well as a huge ceiling.

Carolina Panthers at Dallas Cowboys

Are we in for a shootout between the Carolina Panthers and Dallas Cowboys?

A total of 51.5 points would certainly indicate the scoring should be plentiful in this game, and I love the options on both sides. In the first three weeks of the season, Dallas is averaging 69.3 plays per game, which is the fourth-most in the league. The Panthers are averaging 68.7 plays per game, the fifth-most. Two teams that are running a ton of plays should set this up as an ideal game stack.

Panthers' quarterback Sam Darnold ($7,200) has been a pleasant surprise to start the year with 19.0, 19.9, and 25.2 FanDuel points in the first three weeks. After being freed from the shackles of Adam Gase, Darnold is the QB12 thus far and can keep that going since the Cowboys are allowing the ninth-most (22.8) FanDuel points per game to quarterbacks. I'm not expecting Darnold to be popular in this game stack or the slate overall, and he is one of my favorite tournament plays this week.

Darnold is having plenty of success in the air, and much of that production is going to wide receiver D.J. Moore ($7,300). He has a staggering 31 targets through three games, a solid 10.4 aDOT, 79 yards or more in each game, and is averaging 15.6 FanDuel points per game. The Darnold-Moore stack is one you should have a ton of interest in this week.

After Moore's 31 targets, the player with the next most targets is Christian McCaffrey, who has 17 but is out for a few weeks and didn't play in their most recent game. Terrace Marshall Jr. ($5,000) has the third-most targets (14) but has yet to truly do anything with them, going for a high of 6.8 FanDuel points this season. Marshall is a dart throw at best.

The real question is what are we going to do with Robby Anderson ($5,700), who has done next to nothing this season outside of a touchdown in the first week. Anderson still carries a massive 18.4 aDOT, and the big-play potential is always there for him. I'm cautiously optimistic with Anderson, as Panthers' head coach Matt Rhule stated they needed to get Anderson the ball more.

Running back Chuba Hubbard ($6,300) played on 55.7% of the snaps last week and ran a route on 48.6% of the passing plays. He totaled 11 rushing attempts and had 5 targets -- a clear sign he will be taking the lion's share of the work with McCaffrey out.

A Darnold/Hubbard plus one of Moore or Anderson is a great way to get exposure to the Panthers, who are sporting a 23.50-point implied team total this week. This stack gives you plenty of exposure to all the possible ways the Panthers could be scoring touchdowns.

When it comes to the Cowboys, they are loaded with offensive weapons and have a number of different ways to go about a game stack. While the Panthers are relatively straightforward, the Cowboys present an opportunity to be creative.

Dak Prescott ($7,700) showed gobs of fantasy upside last week, passing for 3 touchdowns on his way to another game with more than 20 FanDuel points. Even though the Panthers' defense is allowing the fifth-fewest (14.0) FanDuel points per game to quarterbacks, they've had a few easy matchups and haven't faced a quarterback with the skillset Prescott has.

Despite the three passing touchdowns from Prescott last week, both Amari Cooper ($7,600) and CeeDee Lamb ($7,400) had fewer than 10 FanDuel points. They both have at least 25 targets on the season, are playing on nearly all of the offensive snaps, and are running a ton of routes. I'm not worried about one game, and they both still maintain their usual potential.

Why did Cooper and Lamb have down games last week? Well, two of Prescott's passing touchdowns went to tight end Dalton Schultz ($5,000), who ended with 80 yards and 2 scores against the Philadelphia Eagles. In all reality, that is an outlier game from Schultz, and I'm not looking to chase that production. Cooper and Lamb are still the top options for the Cowboys, and that is where you should look to stack.

Of course, Ezekiel Elliott ($7,000) is a great fantasy option in really any matchup, but he is not a player I'm going to be prioritizing for this game stack. I generally don't put two opposing running backs in the same game stack, and Hubbard's lower salary makes lineup construction just a tad easier.

A Prescott/Cooper/Lamb stack gives you immense upside if this game turns into a shootout, and you could look to run it back with Moore or Anderson. I'd expect the home Cowboys to be a bit more popular than the Panthers.

Cleveland Browns at Minnesota Vikings

This is my bold call of the week -- the Cleveland Browns at Minnesota Vikings matchup is one worth stacking.

Given the context of the entire slate, I don't anticipate this game being very popular. The Kansas City Chiefs-Philadelphia Eagles bout is very exciting, while the Seattle Seahawks-San Francisco 49ers is also a game worth considering. Add in the two games I mentioned above, and it leaves this clash to be overlooked.

This game has a 51.5-point over/under and a 2.0-point spread -- what's not to like about that? Both teams are in the top half of the league in plays run per game, and they are two offenses with plenty of options to consider stacking.

The Vikings have running back Dalvin Cook ($9,500) listed as questionable for this game. He didn't play last week, and his status needs to be monitored until kickoff because he has shown to be a clear bell-cow back when healthy. In the first two weeks of this season, he had 24 and 26 total touches, playing on 72.6% of the offensive snaps. If he is healthy, it's his backfield.

Alexander Mattison ($6,800) stepped up last week when Cook was out to the tune of 26 rushing attempts, 112 yards, 6 receptions, and 59 receiving yards. He slid right into the role Cook had, giving you plenty of security if Cook is out.

Quarterback Kirk Cousins ($7,500) continues to go overlooked each and every week yet, he is QB6 this season. He has totaled 22, 25, and 25 FanDuel points in the first three weeks and is almost certainly going to be under 5% in his rostership rate. This is me telling you to roster Kirk Cousins this week.

Both Justin Jefferson ($7,800) and Adam Thielen ($7,500) are strong options despite a tougher matchup. The Browns are allowing the sixth-fewest (23.3) FanDuel points per game to wide receivers this season but faced the Houston Texans and Chicago Bears in their last two games, which has helped those numbers.

Tight end Tyler Conklin ($5,300) has a surprising 16 targets through three weeks, including 3 red zone targets. He is playing on 72.6% of the snaps and running a route on 57.6% of the passing plays. I have a moderate amount of interest in Conklin, who offers nice salary relief.

If Cook plays, I will be looking to stack him with Cousins and one of Jefferson or Thielen.

Baker Mayfield ($7,300) is a quarterback who often goes overlooked in DFS, and it's generally for a few good reasons. The Browns have a 47% pass rate, which is the second-lowest in the league this season. This has led to Mayfield posting a high of only 18.5 FanDuel points this year. He has thrown for just 2 passing touchdowns all year and has a single-game high of 31 passing attempts. With all that said, this could be the week he breaks past 20 FanDuel points since the Vikings are allowing sixth-most (23.5) FanDuel points per game to quarterbacks.

Odell Beckham ($6,600) is the only viable wide receiver to stack with Mayfield -- it's really that simple. With Jarvis Landry on injured reserve, Beckham is the top option, and it's not close. Donovan Peoples-Jones ($5,300), Austin Hooper ($5,200), and Rashard Higgins ($5,000) are all dart throws at best.

Deciding between Nick Chubb ($8,000) and Kareem Hunt ($6,400) comes down to one question -- how will the game play out? If it turns into a back-and-forth shootout, Hunt is the answer due to his pass-catching role. Hunt's 11 targets are tied for the most on the team, while Chubb has just 3 targets. If you think the Browns get out to a big lead and will run the ball more, Chubb is the answer.

Stacking Mayfield/Beckham and one of Chubb or Hunt is a solid option that will almost surely go under the radar this week. You can then look to bring the game stack back with Jefferson or Thielen, setting yourself up for plenty of fantasy points.