Thursday Night Football Betting: Where Does the Bucs-Eagles Matchup Offer Value?

We are #blessed with a variety of great games in primetime, and this week should be no exception as the Tampa Bay Buccaneers travel to face the Philadelphia Eagles -- teams that sit 3rd and 17th in our nERD-based rankings.

The road Bucs are a 6.5-point favorite with the over/under at 52.5 points, per NFL odds. The spread has fallen a half-point today after sitting at Bucs -7.0 for most of the week.

Let's dive into what we think could be some interesting betting angles for this contest.

Tale of the Tape

While we are just five games into this 17-game season, there are some clear trends for both sides. Let's start with each team's defense.

Per our schedule-adjusted metrics, both defenses rank inside of the top 12 overall, but Eagles possess the better unit thus far -- sitting 8th, compared to 12th for Tampa Bay.

In dissecting this Philly D, they have some very wide splits. They are eighth-worst against the run, but they are ninth-best versus the pass. That should be an interesting dichotomy as Tampa ranks as the league's most pass-happy offense, passing on 69.7% of their plays.

The Bucs are the opposite on defense. They have been very stout at stopping the rush, ranking as the 3rd-stingiest rush D, but they have been worse against the pass, ranking 14th. The Bucs' run defense is so good that some foes have barely bothered running the ball, a tactic the Miami Dolphins and New England Patriots employed the last two weeks.

Offensively, the advantage certainly falls to the Bucs. Brady is showing zero signs of slowing down and checks in sixth in Passing Net Expected Points (NEP) per drop back (0.26). He's guiding the league's fourth-best overall offense and the third-best passing attack.

Philly has mostly struggled on offense. They're seventh-worst by our numbers, and Hurts' Passing NEP per drop back of 0.10 slots in 22nd.

While the Buccaneers don't run it much, Leonard Fournette seems to be their main man. Last week, he rushed 12 times for 67 yards and a score, and he also caught four passes for 43 yards. He's been strong when given the opportunity.

For Philly, Hurts is a very effective runner, but Miles Sanders is the lead back. He has 67 touches this season and played a season-high 75% of the snaps last week, handling 11 of 13 running-back carries. Active as a runner and receiver, Sanders should remain involved even if Philly has to abandon the run.

Historical Betting Trends

The Bucs are hefty 6.5-point road favorites, and the total is at 52.5 points.

Our model doesn't see much value on the spread as we have Tampa Bay covering but at a rate of just 53.7%.

The total is where we see value. We project the final score to be 28.44-20.64, and we think the under hits 61.6% of the time.

In the prop market, I like the over on Jalen Hurts rushing prop bet, which is at a line of 42.5 yards. With Philly likely to see a negative game script and possibly favoring a pass-heavy plan versus the Bucs' defense, Hurts should drop back plenty in this one, which could lead to scrambles. He is already running the ball a lot -- at least seven carries in every game -- and is averaging 51.2 rushing yards per game.

Historical Betting Trends

-- The Eagles are 4-2 against the spread in their last six games as home 'dogs.
-- Tampa Bay has won 12 out of their last 13.
-- The under has hit in 13 of the Eagles' last 17 home games.