Week 9 Game Scripts to Target in Daily Fantasy Football

Welcome to the Game Scripts to Target article for the 2021 season. Each week, we'll be taking a look at specific games to target for daily fantasy tournaments. Stacking games has always been a popular option in GPPs, as it allows you to reach for upside with the back-and-forth scoring.

Dissecting game scripts should be a huge part of your process when building lineups in NFL daily fantasy.

How will the game play out? Will it be high-paced with lots of potential for fantasy points to be scored? Does it set up well for one team, both teams, or neither? A running back could go from a lock one week as a home favorite to a complete avoid the next as a double-digit road underdog because the expected game scripts in these contests are completely different.

Projecting these outcomes can be extremely difficult for one person. We can use the lines and totals to see what oddsmakers think and go from there. A great resource is numberFire's Daily Fantasy Matchup Heat Map, which provides betting-related numbers -- implied totals, over/unders, and spreads -- as well as custom metrics that show how the teams will match up against each other. This gives us a much better handle on how games are likely to play out, and we can take advantage of that in our lineups.

Let's look at some game scripts to target for this week.

Minnesota Vikings at Baltimore Ravens

An over/under of 50.5 is well worth targeting as a game stack this week.

The Minnesota Vikings are on the road to take on the Baltimore Ravens in what should be one of the better fantasy games on the slate. Both teams are in the top eight of the league in the number of plays run per game, which is a truly wonderful sight when considering a game stack.

We'll start with the Vikings, who are 6.0-point underdogs. This season when trailing by 7 points or more, the Vikings are averaging 23.49 seconds per play, which is is the sixth-fastest in the league. Right from the jump, the Vikings are going to be operating in an area where they've shown good trends that enable more scoring.

After posting three games with 22 or more FanDuel points to start the season, Kirk Cousins ($7,400) has been under 20 FanDuel points in three of his last four games. He posted only a single passing touchdown in each of those three games, and when it comes to this matchup as a game stack, it's clear Cousins will be the less popular of the two quarterbacks.

It's likely that skill-position players from the Vikings will be the bring-back options in this game stack, so that's where we will focus. Running back Dalvin Cook ($8,800) has one of the better matchups in this game, as the Ravens are allowing 23.7 FanDuel points per game to running backs, the seventh-most in the league. Cook returned last week and played on 71% of the snaps while seeing 18 rushing attempts for 78 yards and no touchdowns. Alexander Mattison ($6,500) was a non-factor, playing on only 12% of the snaps and seeing four total touches.

When Cook is healthy, it's his backfield, and Mattison doesn't have any fantasy relevance. Who could have fantasy relevance this week? Tyler Conklin ($5,200), who has an elite matchup versus a Ravens defense that allows a league-high 16.2 FanDuel points per game to tight ends. It's not often we look to Conklin as a top option for the Vikings, but in a game stack this week, his affordable salary would allow you to roster the expensive options from the Ravens' offense.

Of course, the two main options on the Vikings are wide receivers Justin Jefferson ($7,600) and Adam Thielen ($7,400). They are both playing on at least 86% of the snaps while running a route on at least 92% of the passing plays. The only major difference between them is that Jefferson has an 11.2 average depth of target (aDOT) compared to Thielen's 9.3 aDOT. If you are building multiple lineups with a few different iterations of this game stack, you can take shares of both players.

As for the Ravens, they have a strong 28.25 implied team total and are 6.0-point favorites.

It's clear that Lamar Jackson ($8,300) is the ideal quarterback option for this game stack, with his floor and ceiling being better than Cousins'. You can expect Jackson to be very popular, but that shouldn't push you away from rostering him. Jackson has posted two games above 30 FanDuel points, while Cousins has a high of 28.52 FanDuel points. Jackson is the answer for this game stack -- don't think twice about it.

It comes down to who are you going to stack with Jackson. The obvious answers would be Marquise Brown ($7,700) and/or Mark Andrews ($7,100). They hold the two highest -- 25.1% and 22.5%, respectively -- target shares on the Ravens while accounting for 14 of the 28 red zone targets this season.

On paper, it's a tougher matchup for Andrews, as the Vikings are allowing the fifth-fewest (6.7) FanDuel points per game to tight ends. Andrews has shown to be elite, and the matchup might not be an issue for him as he was able to post 5 grabs for 109 yards against the Detroit Lions, a defense that is also permitting fewer than 10 FanDuel points per game to tight ends.

Brown is also a quality receiver who holds a 16.0 aDOT, giving him big-play potential in any game. The Vikings are allowing 33.7 FanDuel points per game to wide receivers, which is the seventh-most in the league. Brown is great, and the Vikings are bad -- no need to go further.

You could look to fade Brown and roster either Rashod Bateman ($5,400) or Sammy Watkins ($5,500). Bateman is dealing with a minor undisclosed issue but has a good chance to play, according to head coach John Harbaugh. Watkins is back at practice after missing a few games and also has a chance to play. I'll be siding with Bateman, who, in only two games, has already commanded a 17.6% target share with a 9.9 aDOT.

As for the Ravens' backfield, I have zero interest and will be eliminating them from my player pool. None of them have a clear path to consistent snaps or a ceiling game.

Stacking Jackson with Brown and Andrews takes a lot of salary, which is why Bateman could come into play. If you go with a Jackson/Brown/Andrews stack and then add either Jefferson or Thielen, you are left with about $5,800 per player remaining. Swap out Brown for Bateman, and that jumps up to $6,300 per player leftover.

You can always pivot to Cook instead of the Vikings' receivers and hope the Vikings get out to an early lead, forcing the Ravens to rely on Jackson and the passing game. That would prioritize Brown and Andrews if you can jam them in.

Los Angeles Chargers at Philadelphia Eagles

A strong 49.5-point over/under and a 1.5-point spread should make the Los Angeles Chargers at Philadelphia Eagles worthy of a game stack.

Both teams are in the top five in pace overall, both teams are in the top five in situation-neutral pace, and both teams are in the top 10 in pace when trailing by seven points or more. This is amazing. The Chargers and Eagles are consistently two of the fastest teams in the league, something all fantasy managers can get behind.

Justin Herbert ($7,600) is coming off a blah game last week in which he posted just 15.82 FanDuel points. That gives him two games in a row where he has failed to reach 20 FanDuel points Ultimately, this shouldn't be something to worry about as his passing volume in those past two outings -- 39 and 35 attempts -- has been in line with what we saw from him when he posted 30 and 42 FanDuel points earlier this year.

As always, deciding on who to stack with the quarterbacks is the main question we all ask. This matchup is a bit interesting in how we should be attacking the opposing defenses.

Both defenses are in the bottom five of the league against running backs and tight ends, while being in the top three of the league against wide receivers -- based on FanDuel points allowed per game to each position.

This means stacking Herber with Austin Ekeler ($9,000) and Jared Cook ($5,200). Ekeler (15.4%) and Cook (13.9%) are third and fourth, respectively, in target share for the Chargers' passing game, and the same goes for the red zone targets -- Ekeler (5) and Cook (7) -- this season.

That would mean fading Mike Williams ($7,300) and Keenan Allen ($7,000). That's a tough choice to make, but there is some merit to fading them as they are both in tough individual matchups.

Williams should see a good amount of Darius Slay, who is the fifth-best cornerback, according to PFF's grades. Allen, who primarily lines up in the slot, would be up against Avonte Maddox, who is ninth-best by PFF.

All in all, I will have some game stacks with one of Williams/Allen and some without.

For the Eagles, Jalen Hurts ($7,800) is coming off his worst fantasy game (11.22 FanDuel points) of the season despite the Eagles scoring 44 points against the Lions. This is really no fault of his own -- the Eagles were able to punch in four rushing touchdowns and a defensive touchdown in a non-competitive game.

I'll still be looking to Hurts since he has scored at least 21 FanDuel points in each of his seven games prior to last week. His dual-threat ability gives him a strong floor/ceiling combination, which is perfect for a game stack.

The Eagles put Miles Sanders on injured reserve last week, and that led to a three-headed backfield with Boston Scott ($6,300), Jordan Howard ($5,700), and Kenneth Gainwell ($5,200). Scott played on 43.5% of the snaps and ended with 18 FanDuel points. Howard played on 24.2% of the snaps and totaled 17.7 FanDuel points. Gainwell played on 32.3% of the snaps and ended with 2.7 FanDuel points.

Gainwell is clearly the outlier by those numbers, but in fact, he had more touches (13) than either Scott (12) or Howard (12). The decision between them this week is another tough one, and if most people are simply looking at the fantasy production from last week, it could lead to Gainwell being the least popular of the trio. While it might be risky, he's intriguing for tournaments. Howard takes a slight edge over Scott for me since Howard had eight red zone rushes last week, compared to only three for Scott.

With the Chargers allowing the third-most (14.8) FanDuel points per game to tight ends, Dallas Goedert ($6,200) is a near-lock for me., He's second on the team in targets (34) and has the most red zone looks (8). Over the last two weeks -- since Zach Ertz was dealt -- Goedert has played on 80.0% of the snaps and is running a route on 61.5% of passing plays.

While the Eagles have a number of options at wide receiver, DeVonta Smith ($5,800) is the only one I'm considering for this game stack. He leads the team with 60 targets (26.7% share), while the next most-targeted wideout, Jalen Reagor, has 34 targets (15.1% share). Smith is the top Philly receiver, and it's not actually close.

Stacking either quarterback with their tight end is a solid start to this game stack, with Ekeler being the preferred running back across the two teams. Then look to add in a wide receiver or two even though they have tougher matchups.