Fantasy Football: 3 Things We Learned in Week 9
Perhaps more than anything, fantasy football is a game of adjustments. Season-long fantasy doesn't end at the draft, and smart managers learn to take the trends and data that each week of games offers and apply it to their roster decisions moving forward.
This weekly piece will look at trends from the previous slate of games and determine which trends in snaps, usage, and matchups are actionable moving forward. Let's dive in and look at some interesting pieces of information from Week 9.
Your Favorite Running Backs From 2016 Are Relevant Again
Jump into the time machine with me, if you will, and let's go all the way back to the end of the 2016 fantasy season. Looking at the top of the running back points from that year, we see David Johnson after his astounding 362-point season in half-PPR leagues. And while Johnson may have faded from relevancy on nowadays on an awful Houston Texans team, two names from the top-12 that year are suddenly back in our lives: Carlos Hyde and Jordan Howard.
Hyde and Howard both finished in the top-12 running backs in fantasy points per game that year, averaging almost 29 half-PPR points per game between them. Fast forward to the middle of 2021, and suddenly both are unexpectedly back in our lives in a major way.
James Robinson missed Week 9 with an injury, paving the way for Hyde to get the majority of the workload. He did just that, playing 79% of snaps, which was fourth among all running backs this past week. His 77.8% rush share was second only to Myles Gaskin. It didn't necessarily amount to much in a date with the stout D of the Buffalo Bills. Hyde managed only 67 yards on 21 carries plus one catch for six yards. But we have seen Urban Meyer already overutilize Hyde in games this season without any plausible reason to do so.
It's a good-not-great schedule for Hyde moving forward. He plays the Texans, New York Jets, Atlanta Falcons, and San Francisco 49ers across the next six weeks -- all of whom allow top-12 fantasy points per game to the position. But he also has games against the Rams and Colts sprinkled in, and they are two defenses that have been much tougher against the run. But if you are in need of volume at a running back spot, Hyde may just get it. Robinson is a candidate to come back in Week 10, but if he is hampered in any way, Hyde should stay involved.
Howard is on a rushing-touchdown spree we haven't seen since the glory days of Sam Darnold way back in the first three weeks of 2021. Since joining the Philadelphia Eagles, Howard has three rushing touchdowns in two games and is averaging 4.4 yards per carry on 29 attempts. He is a zero in the passing game so far, but he looks like the clear early-down back while Miles Sanders recovers from injury.
In the next four games before their bye, the Eagles get two tough matchups (Denver and New Orleans) and two easy ones (New York Giants and Jets). Sanders will likely be back by then, but just enjoy the nostalgic ride for now if you can grab Howard off waivers.
Russell Gage Will Be Involved Without Calvin Ridley
Fantasy managers hit the panic button after Week 8 when, despite no Calvin Ridley, Russell Gage threw up an air-ball with zero targets against the Carolina Panthers. Fortunately, we were all able to come in off the ledge a little after he was heavily utilized in a 27-25 victory over the New Orleans Saints in Week 9.
Gage gave us season-high clips in targets (eight) and receptions (seven) on Sunday, and while he didn't score, he was on the field for 81% of snaps, had a 26.7% target share and saw a red zone target. That's the kind of usage we want to see from Gage in the Atlanta Falcons' offense moving forward.
Through seven weeks, Ridley had a 27% target share and 41% of Atlanta's air yards. That's a massive piece of the offensive pie that is up for grabs. Gage, Kyle Pitts and Cordarrelle Patterson (in some order) should be the biggest beneficiaries of Ridley's absence, and we saw the first steps towards that with Gage's heavy involvement in Week 9.
Pat Freiermuth is a Clear TE1
About the only thing right in the fantasy football world after the Sunday slate of games was that Travis Kelce, Darren Waller and George Kittle were the top-three tight ends for the week. But then Monday night happened, and Pat Freiermuth came along and blew them all away.
Freiermuth led the Pittsburgh Steelers in targets on Monday and ended with five catches for 43 yards and two touchdowns. That makes 13 targets, nine receptions and three scores in the two games since Pittsburgh came out of their bye week. Eric Ebron's absence certainly has helped the cause, but the Steelers are drawing a clear line in the sand that their offense will revolve around Freiermuth, Najee Harris and Diontae Johnson.
Freiermuth now has 33 targets on the year, so he is entering the territory of most-used tight ends, and the production has been all the Steelers could ask for. Among tight ends with at least 30 targets this season, Freiermuth ranks third in Reception Net Expected Points per catch. Much of that is driven by his elite red zone production over the course of the season.
Pat Freiermuth in the red zone
6 targets
4 TDs
Red zone weapon pic.twitter.com/aqEZfM0G9m
— PFF Fantasy Football (@PFF_Fantasy) November 9, 2021
Somehow, Freiermuth is rostered in only 40% of Yahoo leagues as of Tuesday. That number is likely to double after waivers run on Wednesday morning, so check your league to see if he is available. This is a clear TE1 for the rest of the season.