Daily Fantasy Football: Sannes' Situations to Monitor in Week 10

Do me a favor right now. If you're reading on your laptop, give me a CTRL+F on the word "if."

(I don't know how to search on phones because I'm an old, so skip it if you're on mobile.)

Tell me how many "ifs" pop up. I'd bet it's a big number. This probably is an indictment on my writing, but it's also indicative of what we're dealing with in DFS this week.

This piece is going up on Friday, and we've still got a bunch of unknowns. Even with some of them answered Friday with injury reports, we won't know until Saturday at the earliest whether a team in one of the slate's biggest shootouts will have its Hall of Fame quarterback.

We're living in hypothetical land, friends. It sucks. But here we are.

The idea today is to figure out how to handle things depending on how each of those "ifs" break. We should have answers to most by the time lock hits on Sunday, so what do we do with those answers?

Let's run through the hypotheticals now so we can use those ifs to our advantage in Week 10.

Russ vs... Rodgers?

It seems as if the most likely scenario here is that we get an old-fashioned duel between two elite quarterbacks with Russell Wilson returning to face Aaron Rodgers. Rodgers, though, isn't a lock, so let's start with the unlikely scenario that Jordan Love gets his second start.

Against the Kansas City Chiefs, Love averaged -0.03 Passing Net Expected Points (NEP) per drop back. NEP is numberFire's expected-points metric, and Passing NEP includes deductions for expected points lost on negative plays such as sacks, incompletions, and interceptions. The league average is 0.13, so Love was well short of that. Having him start again would severely dampen the outlook for the Green Bay Packers.

It would also hurt the Seattle Seahawks, at least in DFS. The Packers had a 36.4% early-down first-half pass rate in Week 9, way down from their season-long mark of 54.2%. Runs kill clock, and the Packers are already the slowest team in the league, according to pace numbers by numberFire's Brandon Gdula. The defense held the Kansas City Chiefs to 13 points last week in part to quality play, but it was also just a slow, dull game.

So, if Love starts, downgrade everyone. If Rodgers starts, light 'em up.

This is a game with a tight spread and a high total, and it has big implications for both sides. My numbers view this as the closest game of the entire week, and close games breed shootouts. It would make both sides highly appealing.

A big part of the enthusiasm comes from how well the Seahawks played before Wilson's injury. Wilson's averaging 0.24 Passing NEP per drop back this year. That ranks seventh in the league, two spots ahead of Rodgers. With his salary at just $7,500 on FanDuel and the need to put up points, that's enough to make Wilson one of the better quarterback plays of the week.

Plus, we know how to stack him. In the five games Wilson started, almost every high-leverage target was going to either DK Metcalf or Tyler Lockett. Here's the distribution with a "deep" target being at least 16 yards downfield.

Those kinds of shares give both guys massive floor-ceiling combinations. Lockett holds the edge for cash games due to his salary ($7,100) while the salary for Metcalf ($8,000) may actually be an advantage in tournaments under the assumption people take the discount with Lockett. Both guys are priorities here if we get Rodgers on the other side.

Running back is easier to ignore. Chris Carson is returning to practice this week. If he sits, they were using a committee before the bye, and we can ignore them. If Carson returns, we've got better options in the salary tiers both above and below him. This one's all about Russ and the receivers.

The Packers' running backs are hard to trust, too. Aaron Jones has lost enough work to A.J. Dillon to make his $8,200 salary unattractive, but Dillon's not getting enough to be a value at $5,300. You can justify Jones, and Dillon can pay off, but you're banking on there being a deviation in their respective roles.

As with the Seahawks, receiver provides more hope. Both Davante Adams and Marquez Valdes-Scantling were able to play last week, putting the team back to the makeup it had the first three games. In those, Adams' volume was off the charts.

A game stack of Adams and Metcalf will cost you a pretty penny. But we've got value at running back this week, so we can make it work. We should do exactly that.

As for Valdes-Scantling, his routes were still muted last week as he worked his way back. Plus, we know his floor is a zero. He's still an option this week, though, with very few receivers in the $5,000 range having 100-yard upside. MVS has that, allowing us to get at least some tournament shares, especially when stacking this game.

The Importance of Being D'Ernest

Here's that forsaken "if" again. There's still a chance that Nick Chubb could be cleared off the COVID list by Sunday's game. If he's not, you'll want as much D'Ernest Johnson as you can tolerate.

Johnson's the only guy in the backfield who has been there more than a week and isn't on the COVID list. If that remains true, buddy's gonna get fed.

In his lone game without Chubb and Kareem Hunt, Johnson turned 22 carries and 3 targets into 167 yards from scrimmage. He also had 6 of the team's 11 opportunities inside the red zone. A matchup with the New England Patriots isn't scary enough to push us off, so Johnson would be the top play on the slate by a mile if Chubb's unable to get cleared.

The Cleveland Browns' passing game is less clear. They may get a volume bump with the backfield depleted, but it's hard to know if any of the individual pieces has enough upside to make you regret not using them. In two games with Jarvis Landry and without Odell Beckham, no single player has had more than five targets. Landry's the top option here, but his paths to failure are obvious.

Uncertainty With the Patriots

Although Johnson is the top value on the slate, we do have some other players to consider. Some of them may come from the opposing backfield.

Given the obstacles that must be overcome in order to clear concussion protocol, it seems possible that both Damien Harris and Rhamondre Stevenson miss this week. That would whittle the backfield down to two players. The question is whether that's enough.

The remaining players are Brandon Bolden and J.J. Taylor. Bolden's role is known: he's going to be the passing-game back, and there's lots of value in that. On a half-PPR site like FanDuel, targets are worth twice as much as carries for running backs (something we can account for by doubling a player's target total to give their "adjusted opportunities" for the game). That's why Bolden is worth bringing up here.

The question is whether he'll get any early-down work. Typically, you need at least some of that to be hyper-relevant in DFS, otherwise we'd be drooling over J.D. McKissic every week.

Unfortunately, the most likely scenario here is that Taylor scoops the early-down work while Bolden remains in his role. If they're going to split the valuable touches, it's tough to get jazzed about either.

Between the two, we should favor Bolden because we know he'll get the passing-game work. But with guys like Johnson and others springing up as legitimate featured backs, we can likely continue to ignore this backfield despite the injuries.

In the event that either Harris or Stevenson is able to suit up, you could justify a look. But there's still a chance they lose work to Taylor, and again, we know Bolden will be the passing-game back. That's likely enough to keep them off the table even if they do play.

The Bucs' Remaining Pass-Catchers

The Tampa Bay Buccaneers are in an elite spot this week. They're facing a Washington defense that struggles to stop the pass, and we know the Bucs can light up anybody.

We just don't know who will be out there yet.

Antonio Brown and Chris Godwin have yet to practice this week, seemingly putting them on the wrong side of questionable. If they sit, it's going to open up a bunch in this offense.

In three games without Brown, Godwin has led the team with 23.1% of the targets.

Those may now be up for grabs. We can expect a decent chunk to go to Mike Evans.

Evans has double-digit targets in two of three games without Brown. The one where he didn't was for his bi-annual showdown with Marshon Lattimore, so you can excuse a four-target showing.

Now, you're going to boost his floor without denting his already-elite ceiling. Evans is a standout at $7,400.

If Godwin sits, it'd also give us wiggle room to check out Tyler Johnson. Johnson ran a route on 60.5% of Tom Brady's drop backs in Week 8, and that was with Godwin in the lineup. Johnson has topped 60 receiving yards in 2 of the 3 games that Brown has missed, and he'd now be moving into an every-down role. Even if Scotty Miller is activated off of injured reserve, we can buy into Johnson's projected workload.

The one person who would get downgraded here is Brady. He has averaged 0.54 Passing NEP per attempt when targeting Godwin, Brown, or Rob Gronkowski. That has fallen to 0.27 when targeting anybody else. Brady still grades out well enough to warrant consideration, but some other players right beneath him in the player pool shape up better if we take away three of his top options.

The Depleted Cardinals

The only certainty we have with the Arizona Cardinals is that Chase Edmonds will sit, leaving James Conner in a likely featured back role. The rest of the offense is up in the air.

Typically, this might be enough to get us to divest from the entire offense. It's comforting, though, that we've already seen Conner in this environment.

Conner's 173-yard game last week came with Colt McCoy at quarterback and with DeAndre Hopkins sidelined. The one difference would be if Rondale Moore can't go, but the team re-added A.J. Green off the COVID-19 list earlier this week.

We've already seen Conner with a battered unit around him, and he was still able to beast.

Bookmakers are showing confidence here, too, with the Cardinals favored by 10 points. That's with the Carolina Panthers' schedule-adjusted rush defense ranking worse by numberFire's metrics (26th) than the San Francisco 49ers defense (9th) that he tore up last week.

Clearly, it's a downgrade for Conner if Kyler Murray can't play. We want to tie our running backs to efficient passers, and Murray's among the best in the league. But even if McCoy goes, Conner still deserves to be a focal point at $7,000.

The rest of the offense we can likely ignore. Thanks to Conner's efficiency, the team had just 26 targeted throws last week and faces a similar game script here. This one's all about Conner, who is a core play regardless but would rise into Johnson's tier among the best backs on the slate if Murray is able to suit up.

A Darnold Downgrade

On the other side of that game, we should be getting excited about Christian McCaffrey. Even on limited snaps last week, he racked up 106 yards from scrimmage, and his $9,000 salary is likely the lowest it'll be all season.

We just have to decide if this offense will function.

Sam Darnold is likely to go on injured reserve this week due to a fracture in his shoulder. Darnold's -0.06 Passing NEP per drop back is third worst among qualified starters, so you'd think going to P.J. Walker might not be a downgrade. It might not be. But the early data on Walker casts doubt on that assumption.

In Walker's 71 career drop backs with the Panthers, he's averaging -0.36 Passing NEP per drop back. Some of that has come in relief this year, which isn't fair as it came without a full week of practice. But even last year alone, Walker was at -0.28 Passing NEP per drop back.

Last year's games aren't even an apples-to-apples comparison, either. This time, he'll have to start with Matt Paradis and Cam Erving on injured reserve. The Panthers will be starting backups at quarterback, left tackle, and center. What could go wrong?

This is why the Panthers went out and signed Cam Newton: they likely know Walker can't keep them in playoff contention. With Newton unlikely to go this week, it all dramatically hurts the Panthers' offensive expectations, and you need yards and touchdowns to score fantasy points. It's at least a downgrade to McCaffrey's outlook. We just have to ask if it's enough to make us de-prioritize him.

It does help that we've seen McCaffrey in a hideous situation before. In 2019, the Panthers started Will Grier for Weeks 16 and 17. Walker beat out Grier for the backup spot, meaning we can use those as somewhat of a template.

In those games, McCaffrey scored 24.8 and 19.3 FanDuel points. The 24.8 points came without a touchdown, which is absurd, but it came thanks to 15 targets when the Panthers were helping him chase records. If we could project him for that much work, it'd be an easier sell.

It's truly a tough situation with McCaffrey. We love the talent and the role, but the matchup and environment are rough. Other guys in this range have lesser workloads but more positives in the other departments. Personally, I'm fine focusing on the better offenses and making McCaffrey more a rotational play than a focal point, but it is a play you should think deeply about before locking in your lineups.

Alvin Kamara's Knee Injury

We've already got some dependable value at running back this week. We might be getting even more.

It seems like there's a legit chance that Alvin Kamara can't go. If that happens, we'd have to at least consider Mark Ingram.

Ingram has immediately snatched a legit role within the New Orleans Saints' offense. He's at 7.5 carries and 3.5 targets per game, and that's while competing with Kamara for time. He's also had 50-plus yards in both games, so there's still some juice in those legs.

Ingram's salary is $5,500, putting him right in the D'Ernest Johnson range. It means we'd have to decide which guy we prefer if Ingram gets the lead role.

Part of this boils down to situation. Ingram is tied to a combination of Taysom Hill and Trevor Siemian whereas Johnson is tied to Baker Mayfield. Both offensive lines are elite, and both are facing defenses that can cause some havoc.

Ingram at least has enough going from him where he'd warrant some exposure should Kamara sit. But with Johnson already having shown the role he'd gave with the backfield to himself, he holds the edge. As such, if Kamara sits, Ingram belongs in our player pool, just at lesses exposure levels than Johnson.

Gallup-ing Back Into Our Lineups

One of the better games to stack on Sunday is the Dallas Cowboys facing the Atlanta Falcons. Both offenses can put up points, and neither defense is one we need to fear. Plus, we might be able to squeeze some value out of the Cowboys.

That's because Michael Gallup is returning to the lineup this week. Gallup has been practicing since October 26th, meaning he has had plenty of time to get his calf back into shape.

This could be a massive headache given that CeeDee Lamb and Amari Cooper already have lower floors than you'd like at their salaries. But Gallup's salary is $5,500, which may be low enough for some swipes.

Since Gallup's injury, Dalton Schultz, Malik Turner, and Cedrick Wilson have all managed a game with at least 17 FanDuel points. The tertiary pieces here have upside because Dak Prescott is so good. Gallup had 18.8% of the Cowboys' targets in the first half of Week 1, so he can push Cooper and Lamb for work.

It's a low-percentage play to be sure. Gallup's odds of flopping are higher than you'd like. But he has a path to upside, and we can take that for $5,500.

The more dependable route may be to skip the receivers entirely and stack Prescott with Ezekiel Elliott. Elliott bruised his knee in Week 9 but played through it and logged a limited practice on Wednesday. He should be good to go. Elliott has 110-plus yards from scrimmage in half his games this year, and he gets enough work in the passing game to have some double-dip appeal with Prescott. It's not the most conventional stack, but it may be the best one with so many quality mouths in the offense.

Massive Workloads for the Steelers

The Pittsburgh Steelers were already one of the most concentrated offenses in the league. Then things got even tighter this week.

This is a bummer as Chase Claypool is a delight to watch. It means, though, that Najee Harris, Diontae Johnson, and Pat Freiermuth are going to get elite volume.

There had been at least some level of concern that Freiermuth might lose work with Eric Ebron trending toward being back this week. Now, the Steelers likely can't afford not to have their big playmaker on the field. That's especially true near the goal-line where Freiermuth already had a big role. Here's the target distribution in three games without JuJu Smith-Schuster.

Claypool's targets will have to go somewhere. If nothing else, it means we can expect Johnson and Freiermuth to maintain the volume from that chart, making both priority plays at $7,400 and $5,100, respectively.

Harris is tougher because he has legit competition in his tier. We talked about McCaffrey earlier; he's $9,000. The other guy with Harris at $9,400 is Jonathan Taylor. It's tough to decide which guy we should prioritize.

We can't use the matchup to decide here as Taylor is also in a cozy spot against the Jacksonville Jaguars. And while Harris gets more touches, Taylor does more with them, averaging 123.8 yards from scrimmage per game compared to Harris' 103.8. Both players have more than 45% of the team's red-zone opportunities for the year.

For me, I'd rank Harris higher for cash games and lean toward Taylor in tournaments. In cash games, we want to maximize opportunities, and Harris will hold the edge there. But Taylor's yardage upside is better, and his offense tends to produce more scoring drivers, both of which jack up his ceiling. You can make the case for either guy, so there isn't a wrong answer here. Additionally, Harris is still an elite tournament play even if I prefer Taylor. That's just how I'll view them entering this.

Dawson Knox's Likely Return

The Buffalo Bills' offense has looked disjointed recently. Clearly they were just missing the true superstar in their offense: Dawson Knox.

Luckily for them, the king is back.

Knox has returned to practice, fulfilling the most likely timeline for Knox's return after he wasn't placed in injured reserve. Although Knox isn't a target hog, it does force us to re-examine the Bills' target distribution.

That's likely not enough to get us to buy into Knox at $5,800. But it does illustrate why Emmanuel Sanders is under-salaried at $6,300.

It's not just this split; Sanders has more deep targets than Stefon Diggs for the full season. We've seen Josh Allen miss on a good number of those long balls, but that's a valuable role at such a middling salary.

Sanders has yardage upside in a vacuum, and his matchup with the New York Jets is a dream. We should be willing to roster him at $6,300 even with Knox back in the fold.

The other mid-range play who could be viable here is Devin Singletary. Zack Moss was able to get in a limited session on Thursday, meaning he might be cleared from concussion protocol in time to play, but Singletary could have this backfield to himself.

The problem is that Singletary hasn't done much when that has been true. He had 80 yards from scrimmage in one game with Moss inactive this year, and he averaged 77.0 yards from scrimmage in 3 games without Moss last year. It's underwhelming production when coupled with the fact he loses red-zone work to Allen.

Singletary is merely a pivot off of Johnson and Ingram, should both wind up being their team's lead back. He'd certainly be in play in that role if Moss were to sit, but we just can't feel great about his upside given his track record. Sanders is likely the best low-salaried route for exposure to a plus matchup, above Singletary even if Moss does wind up being out.

Buying Low on Mike Williams

Mike Williams hasn't hit double-digit FanDuel points in a month. It's a three-game span in which he has totaled 104 yards, 61 fewer than he had the game before this lull.

He might be primed to get back on track on Sunday.

Part of the reason Williams has struggled is the defenses he has faced. Their general philosophy has been stopping the deep ball, where Williams' bread is buttered.

This week, he gets the Minnesota Vikings, who have let up the fourth-highest average depth of target (aDOT) in the league.

That's their full-season number. Their ability to limit the deep ball may be even more muted with stud safety Harrison Smith out due to COVID-19.

For the season, Williams has 39.5% of the Los Angeles Chargers' deep targets. If the Vikings' defense continues to operate the way it has, we shouldn't be surprised to see Williams surge back into relevance. The long-ball numbers also help Justin Herbert sit near the top of the quarterback pool.

The passing-game options on the VIkings obviously work as bring-backs, especially with the Chargers' secondary banged up, but Dalvin Cook is a standout on the slate. Although Cook has been sued for domestic violence in civil court, it seems as though he will be allowed to play this weekend. If he does, we'll be getting his 28.0 adjusted opportunities and 119.0 yards per game against the league's worst rush defense. A game stack of Herbert with Williams and Cook allows us to exploit opposing weaknesses without breaking the bank.

The Broncos With Fant and Jeudy

The total for the Denver Broncos' matchup with the Philadelphia Eagles has been on the rise this week, sitting at 45.5 now after opening at 44. That should jack up our interest in getting exposure to the Broncos' passing game.

The two key targets there are Jerry Jeudy and Noah Fant.

That duo has played just two games together so far this year. They're the only players on the team to top a 12% target share in those games.

It's worth noting that Jeudy left one of those games early in the third quarter, so his workload could be even more impressive than it is. Jeudy was targeted on 23.9% of his routes with Fant at 26.7%.

These workloads are good enough to make both prime considerations. Fant could potentially go overlooked with Kyle Pitts being in the best game on the slate and with Freiermuth and Dan Arnold having big roles in the low-$5,000 range. We should go to the others in cash games, but for tournaments, Fant is a fun pivot.

As for Jeudy, things fall off quickly after him at receiver. He's also not in an offense as pass-heavy as the Bills, which could make Emmanuel Sanders the better option at a salary just $100 higher. But Jeudy is doing enough for us to feel very good about him at $6,200.