Super Bowl Futures Betting Update: Week 11
Once again, the Buffalo Bills are the bookies' favorites to win the Super Bowl, after another eventful week of NFL action. The Bills' demolition of the hapless New York Jets saw them move to the top of the pile according to the NFL odds. The Tampa Bay Buccaneers' surprising loss to the Washington Football Team saw them fall behind the Bills again.
| TEAM | Odds | Implied Probability | NF Odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| Buffalo Bills | +550 | 15.4% | 14.2% |
| Tampa Bay Buccaneers | +600 | 14.3% | 12.5% |
| Los Angeles Rams | +800 | 11.1% | 12.0% |
| Green Bay Packers | +850 | 10.5% | 10.0% |
| Arizona Cardinals | +950 | 9.5% | 10.4% |
| Dallas Cowboys | +1000 | 9.1% | 8.0% |
| Kansas City Chiefs | +1000 | 9.1% | 5.0% |
| Baltimore Ravens | +1300 | 7.1% | 5.5% |
| Tennessee Titans | +1300 | 7.1% | 7.6% |
| Los Angeles Chargers | +2700 | 3.6% | 3.5% |
| New England Patriots | +2700 | 3.6% | 3.3% |
| Cleveland Browns | +3700 | 2.6% | 1.8% |
| Cincinnati Bengals | +4400 | 2.2% | 1.2% |
| Pittsburgh Steelers | +5000 | 2.0% | 1.2% |
| New Orleans Saints | +5500 | 1.8% | 0.9% |
| Las Vegas Raiders | +5500 | 1.8% | 0.2% |
| San Francisco 49ers | +7000 | 1.4% | 0.2% |
| Indianapolis Colts | +7500 | 1.3% | 0.3% |
| Minnesota Vikings | +9000 | 1.1% | 1.5% |
| Seattle Seahawks | +12000 | 0.8% | 0.1% |
| Denver Broncos | +13000 | 0.8% | 0.3% |
| Philadelphia Eagles | +13000 | 0.8% | 0.1% |
| Atlanta Falcons | +28000 | 0.4% | 0.0% |
| Carolina Panthers | +28000 | 0.4% | 0.0% |
| Chicago Bears | +55000 | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Miami Dolphins | +55000 | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Washington | +55000 | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| New York Giants | +100000 | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Jacksonville Jaguars | +100000 | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Houston Texans | +100000 | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| New York Jets | +100000 | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Detroit Lions | +100000 | 0.1% | 0.0% |
The leaders are forming something of a pack at the top of the betting markets, jostling for position and swapping almost on a weekly basis at present. The Green Bay Packers did enjoy something of a significant line move after they handled the listless Seattle Seahawks in Week 10, moving to +850 -- ahead of the Arizona Cardinals.
The most notable line move outside of the leaders came from the New England Patriots. After dismissing the Cleveland Browns on Sunday, the Patriots are now available at +2700, with only five teams in the AFC enjoying shorter odds. They also saw a major boost according to numberFire metrics. Based on our nERD metric, we had the Patriots with a 0.9% chance of ultimate victory a week ago. Now, they're sitting prettier with a 3.3% mark.
After their home loss to the Philadelphia Eagles, the Denver Broncos saw a massive negative swing in their odds. The Broncos now sit at +13000 after having been available at +7000 this time last week.
There are currently ten teams who, according to our numbers, have zero chance to win the Super Bowl this season. The Absolute Zero Club could start admitting new members soon, with the Eagles and Seahawks both facing 0.1% odds of victory. Just ahead of them with a 0.2% chance are the Las Vegas Raiders and the San Francisco 49ers. It's been quite a fall for the 49ers, who had a 5.9% chance after Week 1.
