FanDuel Single-Game Daily Fantasy Football Helper: Week 13 Sunday Night (Broncos at Chiefs)

The Kansas City Chiefs come off their bye to take on the Denver Broncos in a home game at Arrowhead Stadium.

On NFL odds, the Chiefs are 9.5-point home favorites in a game with a 47.0-point total. That makes the implied score 28.25-18.75 in favor of the Chiefs.

For those unfamiliar, single-game slates feature five flex spots with identical scoring to the main slate. However, kickers are included in these contests, and there is an "MVP" roster slot. The MVP receives 1.5-times his total fantasy points, making this spot crucial.

Our Brandon Gdula has done a deep dive on single-game strategy, and we have projections for the single-game slate if you select the game from the slate tab. It's worth checking out both of those things before you make your lineups.

MVP Candidates

Single-game slates that involve the Chiefs always start with KC's big three of Patrick Mahomes ($17,000 on FanDuel), Tyreek Hill ($14,500) and Travis Kelce ($13,000).

All three are elite MVP options, and I lean toward using either Hill or Kelce as my multiplier to avoid the Mahomes MVP chalk. With that said, our model projects Mahomes for 22.7 FanDuel points, tops on the slate by a whopping 6.1 FanDuel points.

Between Kelce and Hill, I much prefer Hill. Across KC's last four games, Hill has accounted for a 29% target share and 44% air yards share, compared to Kelce's 18% target share and 17% air yards share. Hill possesses slate-breaking big-play ability, and he's been getting peppered with all sorts of targets. He's my favorite MVP play on the slate, and he's unlikely to see as much MVP love as Mahomes does.

If you want to get weird, Javonte Williams ($10,500) is a fun contrarian MVP.

With Melvin Gordon listed as doubtful, Williams should be in line for big-time volume, and Denver's best chance to win this game likely revolves around having a ton of success on the ground. Williams has been productive in a split backfield, recording 5.3 yards per touch and ripping off seven runs of at least 15 yards, the 11th-most at the position, per PlayerProfiler.

He could feast with a workhorse role, and he should be able to hold his own in the passing game if Denver gets behind. We project Williams for 15.6 FanDuel points. He's an excellent flex play if you don't want to risk him at MVP.

Whenever a quarterback is going to fly under the radar at MVP, we need to at least think about him. That's the case with Teddy Bridgewater ($14,000) on this slate. While Kansas City's defense has been much better lately, they've still allowed the third-most FanDuel points per game to signal-callers on the year (20.7). We peg Bridgewater to score 16.1 FanDuel points.

Flex Breakdown

With Denver expected to see a negative game script, their wideouts are logical flex options.

Since Jerry Jeudy ($10,000) returned from injury, he's run as the Broncos' top receiver ahead of Courtland Sutton ($9,000) and Tim Patrick ($8,500). In that four-game span, Jeudy has a 21% target share and 24% air yards share. The target share paces the team by seven percentage points. He's been the apple of Bridgewater's eye, and our algorithm project Jeudy for 9.4 FanDuel points.

The really surprising thing is that Patrick has been second on the totem pole, registering a 14% target share and team-leading 25% air yards share. Sutton, meanwhile, holds a 13% target share and 18% air yards share and hasn't seen more than five targets in a game in any of his past five outings. I like Sutton's talent, but if I'm taking a shot on a non-Jeudy Denver wideout, it'll be Patrick.

Noah Fant ($8,000) owns a 12% target share and 11% air yards share since Jeudy has rejoined the fray. While Fant is mostly a dart throw at a touchdown or a chunk play, our projections rate him as the second-best point-per-dollar option among those salaried under $10,000.

For Kansas City, it's always a struggle to get jazzed about any of their options outside of Hill and Kelce.

You can make a case for Clyde Edwards-Helaire ($11,000) or Darrel Williams ($10,500) in what should be a positive game script. The problem is they split snaps nearly 50-50 in their last game before the bye, with Williams playing 53% of the snaps and CEH at 47%. That was Edwards-Helaire's first game back from injury, so I was assuming he'd probably take over tonight after KC's bye, but he popped up on the injury report with an illness, so who the heck knows. I'll probably steer clear of this backfield.

Byron Pringle ($7,500) had emerged as Kansas City's number-two wideout before the bye, and Josh Gordon ($5,500) was coming on, too. Pringle has played the second-most snaps among KC receivers in two straight games while Gordon has logged the third-most in each. That's pushed out Mecole Hardman ($7,000), who was in on just 18% of the plays in Week 11.

The usage could change coming out of the bye, but if things stick, Hardman is practically unusable while Pringle and Gordon are decent dart throws. At $5,500, Gordon offers a lot of salary relief.

Harrison Butker ($9,000) is the top point-per-dollar play among those with a four-digit salary, per our model. According to Brandon Gdula's single-game study, kickers are better suited for low-scoring games, and this could be one with a 47.0-point total. And with KC likely to be leading, Butker shouldn't be in a position where his team has to forego a field-goal try in favor of needing a touchdown. An outdoor game isn't ideal, but Butker projects for 9.3 FanDuel points.