NFL Week 16 Power Rankings: Tracking Some Massive Playoff Odds Shifts
Everyone has his or her own set of NFL power rankings, but not all of them are computer-driven, algorithmically-derived approaches that look at underlying data to figure out true team strength.
But numberFire's power rankings do just that.
Using our nERD metric, which indicates the expected point differential against an average opponent on a neutral field, here is how our model ranks and rates all 32 teams.
numberFire's NFL Power Rankings
| Team | Record | nERD | nERD Rank |
Rank Change |
Playoff Odds |
xWins Next 3 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bills | 8-6 | 10.50 | 1 | 2 | 87.0% | 2.4 |
| Buccaneers | 10-4 | 10.50 | 1 | 0 | 100.0% | 2.7 |
| Cardinals | 10-4 | 8.16 | 3 | -1 | 99.9% | 2.0 |
| Cowboys | 10-4 | 7.83 | 4 | 1 | 100.0% | 2.1 |
| Patriots | 9-5 | 7.15 | 5 | -1 | 99.3% | 2.1 |
| Rams | 10-4 | 7.09 | 6 | 1 | 99.3% | 2.0 |
| Packers | 11-3 | 6.74 | 7 | -1 | 100.0% | 2.5 |
| Chiefs | 10-4 | 6.16 | 8 | 0 | 99.7% | 2.0 |
| Colts | 8-6 | 5.42 | 9 | 0 | 91.0% | 2.1 |
| 49ers | 8-6 | 5.16 | 10 | 1 | 75.2% | 1.9 |
| Chargers | 8-6 | 3.61 | 11 | -1 | 84.3% | 2.2 |
| Saints | 7-7 | 3.46 | 12 | 0 | 66.8% | 2.5 |
| Bengals | 8-6 | 2.07 | 13 | 2 | 57.0% | 1.6 |
| Eagles | 7-7 | 1.70 | 14 | 0 | 35.5% | 1.8 |
| Titans | 9-5 | 0.97 | 15 | -2 | 99.2% | 2.0 |
| Broncos | 7-7 | 0.70 | 16 | 1 | 6.4% | 1.3 |
| Vikings | 7-7 | 0.68 | 17 | -1 | 19.9% | 1.4 |
| Ravens | 8-6 | -0.73 | 18 | 0 | 40.5% | 1.2 |
| Browns | 7-7 | -1.59 | 19 | 0 | 13.9% | 1.1 |
| Steelers | 7-6-1 | -1.88 | 20 | 1 | 14.7% | 1.2 |
| Seahawks | 5-9 | -2.09 | 21 | -1 | 0.0% | 1.6 |
| Dolphins | 7-7 | -3.93 | 22 | 1 | 1.2% | 0.7 |
| Football Team | 6-8 | -4.06 | 23 | -1 | 2.9% | 1.0 |
| Raiders | 7-7 | -4.10 | 24 | 0 | 5.6% | 0.8 |
| Panthers | 5-9 | -5.21 | 25 | 0 | 0.0% | 0.4 |
| Giants | 4-10 | -6.09 | 26 | 0 | 0.0% | 1.2 |
| Bears | 4-10 | -6.64 | 27 | 0 | 0.0% | 1.1 |
| Falcons | 6-8 | -9.45 | 28 | 0 | 0.4% | 0.8 |
| Lions | 2-11-1 | -10.68 | 29 | 2 | 0.0% | 0.7 |
| Jets | 3-11 | -11.45 | 30 | -1 | 0.0% | 0.8 |
| Jaguars | 2-12 | -12.07 | 31 | -1 | 0.0% | 0.6 |
| Texans | 3-11 | -14.82 | 32 | 0 | 0.0% | 0.3 |
Three teams saw a shift of at least 24.7% to their playoff odds in the positive sense after Week 15.
The biggest odds increase belonged to the Indianapolis Colts (up 27.8 points from 63.2% to 91.0%). Along with that win over the New England Patriots, the Colts' Super Bowl odds climbed from just 1.2% to 4.5%). They're viewed as a legitimate contender, which shouldn't be a surprise for those tracking nERD all season.
The New Orleans Saints' odds reversed course after blanking the Tampa Bay Buccaneers in Week 15. They're now up to a 66.8% chance to make the post-season from just 40.0% a week ago now that they're back to .500 for the first time since Week 11.
The third team with a significant odds shift is the Cincinnati Bengals, who fended off the Denver Broncos 15-10 in Week 15. Losses for the Baltimore Ravens and Cleveland Browns ramped up the Bengals' AFC North win odds to 50.6% from 23.2%.
Speaking of those Ravens, their loss to the Green Bay Packers was devastating. Their playoff odds plummeted from 75.8% to 40.5%, a shift of 35.3 points. No other team's odds dropped more than 15.5 points.
Other double-digit playoff odds decreases belonged to the Cleveland Browns (-15.5), the Denver Broncos (-12.8), the Washington Football Team (-11.6), and the Philadelphia Eagles (-10.8).
