FanDuel Single-Game Daily Fantasy Football Helper: Week 18 Sunday Night (Chargers at Raiders)
It's a win-and-you're-in situation for the Las Vegas Raiders and Los Angeles Chargers as the winner of the Sunday night battle will clinch a spot in the postseason.
On NFL odds, the Chargers are 3.0-point road favorites in a game with a 48.5-point total. That makes the implied score 25.75-22.75 in favor of the Bolts.
For those unfamiliar, single-game slates feature five flex spots with identical scoring to the main slate. However, kickers are included in these contests, and there is an "MVP" roster slot. The MVP receives 1.5-times his total fantasy points, making this spot crucial.
Our Brandon Gdula has done a deep dive on single-game strategy, and we have projections for the single-game slate if you select the game from the slate tab. It's worth checking out both of those things before you make your lineups.
MVP Candidates
Justin Herbert ($17,500 on FanDuel), Derek Carr ($13,500) and Austin Ekeler ($15,000) are the three leading MVP options for this slate.
Herbert paces our projections at 20.4 FanDuel points, 3.0 clear of the field. The second-year stud has scored at least 17.68 FanDuel points in seven straight games, and he posted 21.28 points in the first matchup with the Raiders. He also adds a little juice with his legs, rushing for at least 15 yards in three of the last four games. Herbert checks a lot of boxes, and the only knock on him is that he'll likely be the chalk MVP play.
That pushes me to Ekeler. The Bolts' do-it-all back is averaging 18.2 FanDuel points per game for the season. While the Raiders' D has been solid overall this year, their weak spot is on the ground as they permit the fifth-most FanDuel points per game to running backs (24.5). Ekeler has a really nice floor thanks to his pass-game usage, which is almost always there. He hasn't dipped below 13.4 FanDuel points in any of his past seven outings, and he torched Vegas for 28.0 FanDuel points earlier this year. We project him for 15.4 on Sunday.
Carr's salary is pretty low for a signal-caller on a single-game slate, but it reflects his blah FanDuel production over the back half of the campaign. Carr hasn't scored more than 12.36 FanDuel points in any of his last five games. The season has been a tale of two halves for him after he started the year so well. But at a projection of 17.4 FanDuel points and possibly getting Darren Waller ($10,500) back, Carr needs to be on the MVP radar.
Josh Jacobs ($12,000) is also worth a look at the multiplier spot. He's not a lock to play -- officially questionable -- but if he's active, he can feast against the Chargers' run defense. LA has surrendered the sixth-most FanDuel points per game to running backs (24.1), and Jacobs' boost in targets this season -- at least three in 10 consecutive games -- makes him a lot less game-script dependent than he had been before this year. Our model slots him in for 15.2 FanDuel points.
Flex Breakdown
The aforementioned Waller is easy to like at his salary if he's able to suit up. With Waller out since Week 12, it's fair to be concerned about just how healthy the star tight end is even if he's active, but in such a crucial game, it stands to reason he'll take on as much of a workload as he can handle. We project him for 13.3 FanDuel points.
Hunter Renfrow ($13,000) is probably over-salaried if Waller suits up, but he's been excellent lately, scoring at least 11.5 FanDuel points in five of his last six games. If Waller is out, Renfrow is the only bankable pass-catcher on Vegas. If Waller plays, I'll likely be light on Renfrow. Our projections account for Waller giving it a go, and we have Renfrow slated for just 9.9 FanDuel points.
Fellow Raiders receivers DeSean Jackson ($7,500) and Zay Jones ($9,000) are dart throws. Jones' outlook takes a hit if Waller plays, and he'd be tough to get behind at $9,000. D-Jax's big-play ability is enticing on a single-game slate, but you're hoping to catch lightning in a bottle as Jackson has seen more than three targets in a game just once in the last five weeks -- and that's with Waller missing all of those games.
If Jacobs sits, Peyton Barber ($7,000) would be thrust into a big workload and would be a tough fade at his salary.
For the Chargers, Mike Williams ($11,000) and Keenan Allen ($12,000) are the top plays in a concentrated passing attack. We project Allen for 12.3 FanDuel points and Williams for 9.7.
I am much more interested in Allen, who has seen an uptick in downfield looks of late. Over the last two weeks, Allen has accounted for a 21% target share and 30% air yards share. Williams is still capable of chunk plays, though, and could come good with just one bomb.
In an indoor game that should be close, the kickers are viable. We have Dustin Hopkins ($9,500) and Daniel Carlson ($9,000) forecasted to put up 9.1 and 9.0 FanDuel points, respectively. According to our numbers, they are the two best point-per-dollar picks among those salaried under $10,000.
