Super Bowl LVI Prop Bet Simulations: Most Passing, Rushing, and Receiving Yards
There are really no shortage of betting options on Super Bowl LVI at FanDuel Sportsbook.
But it can get a little overwhelming because there are a lot of new markets that we don't really see throughout the regular season. Even if you're always betting receiving yardage props, you're likely not digging into game-leader yardage options.
No worries, though.
We've got you covered.
I went ahead and simulated out the big game 10,000 times based on numberFire's projections to see where we can gain an edge this weekend.
Most Passing Yards
| Most Passing Yards | numberFire Projection | FanDuel Sportsbook |
|---|---|---|
| Matthew Stafford | 277.8 | -114 |
| Joe Burrow | 274.2 | -106 |
The median projection for Matthew Stafford (277.8) and Joe Burrow (274.8) are virtually identical, and that's reflected in the close odds at FanDuel Sportsbook.
Both the projections and odds have Stafford as the slight favorite.
But when played out over 10,000 iterations, Stafford did wind up leading the game at a 54.2% rate, implying odds of -118.
Though there isn't a ton of value on this prop, the data does suggest leaning toward Stafford, whose downfield passing demise is overstated.
Most Rushing Yards
| Most Rushing Yards | numberFire Projection |
FanDuel Sportsbook |
|---|---|---|
| Joe Mixon | 75.9 | -105 |
| Cam Akers | 70.1 | +100 |
| Sony Michel | 28.6 | +900 |
| Joe Burrow | 17.6 | +10000 |
| Samaje Perine | 4.2 | +10000 |
| Ja'Marr Chase | 5.8 | +10000 |
| Matthew Stafford | 9.3 | +30000 |
With reasons to be a little wary on the overall role of Cam Akers, it's no wonder that Joe Mixon is the betting favorite to lead Super Bowl LVI in rushing yards.
He's also projected by numberFire to lead the game with Akers within six yards of his total projection. There's a huge tier drop to the rest, however.
It's no surprise, then, that Mixon and Akers surge ahead of the pack in odds of leading this game.
Mixon led in rushing yards in 51.9% of the simulated versions of Super Bowl LVI. Akers did so in 40.7%.
That does put Mixon's odds of -105 into slight value territory. Akers not so much.
The chalk is likely the right call in this one. Side with Mixon.
Most Receiving Yards
| Most Receiving Yards | numberFire Projection |
FanDuel Sportsbook |
|---|---|---|
| Cooper Kupp | 109.4 | -120 |
| Ja'Marr Chase | 86.9 | +340 |
| Tee Higgins | 68.7 | +600 |
| Odell Beckham | 54.7 | +1100 |
| Joe Mixon | 23.7 | +2500 |
| Tyler Boyd | 42.5 | +2500 |
| Tyler Higbee | 34.8 | +2500 |
| Van Jefferson | 35.0 | +2500 |
| C.J. Uzomah | 29.8 | +2500 |
| Kendall Blanton | 9.9 | +2500 |
| Drew Sample | 4.3 | +2800 |
| Samaje Perine | 9.6 | +10000 |
| Chris Evans | 3.9 | +10000 |
| Ben Skowronek | 9.1 | +10000 |
| Cam Akers | 13.1 | +10000 |
| Darrell Henderson | 3.9 | +15000 |
| Sony Michel | 8.0 | +15000 |
We once again have a chalky option for most receiving yards, and that's Cooper Kupp, who is projected for 109.4 yards as a baseline, which is wild.
Ja'Marr Chase (86.9), Tee Higgins (68.7), and Odell Beckham (54.7) round out the others with a projection of 50-plus yards.
The simulations, though, don't really show value on just siding with Kupp. Yes, he's rating out as 49.8% likely to lead the slate in receiving yards, but that's not enough for -120 odds.
Instead, there's value on Ja'Marr Chase, who is 25.1% likely to lead, implying odds of right around +300. There's some extra value there at +340.
If looking for a longer shot, Tee Higgins is the obvious next move, though he does underperform the +600 odds in the simulations.
