NFL Draft Betting: The 3 Best Bets in the Top-10 Pick Market
There are a ton of ways to bet the NFL Draft at FanDuel Sportsbook this year, including specific players at specific picks, but there is also a top-5 (which I already analyzed) and top-10 pick market.
There are a lot. I won't list them all, but there are a lot.
Here are the odds for everyone else to go inside the top 10 of the 2022 NFL Draft.
Where might there be betting value?
Rankings in the table refer to ESPN's Best Player Available rankings (ESPN), NFL Mock Draft Database's Consensus Big Board rankings (MDD), and Grinding the Mocks' expected draft position (GTM).
| Player | FD Sportsbook |
ESPN | MDD | GTM | Avg |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ahmad Gardner | -1000 | 5 | 6 | 6.5 | 5.8 |
| Kayvon Thibodeaux | -1000 | 7 | 2 | 4.7 | 4.6 |
| Charles Cross | -350 | 15 | 8 | 10.5 | 11.2 |
| Garrett Wilson | -170 | 6 | 10 | 10.7 | 8.9 |
| Derek Stingley | -135 | 11 | 9 | 11.4 | 10.5 |
| Jermaine Johnson | -135 | 10 | 12 | 11.9 | 11.3 |
| Malik Willis | -115 | 21 | 11 | 9.7 | 13.9 |
| Drake London | +100 | 9 | 13 | 16.5 | 12.8 |
| Kyle Hamilton | +100 | 4 | 7 | 11.7 | 7.6 |
| Jameson Williams | +175 | 19 | 15 | 15 | 16.3 |
| Kenny Pickett | +175 | 22 | 17 | 16.5 | 18.5 |
| Jordan Davis | +350 | 16 | 14 | 16.6 | 15.5 |
| Devin Lloyd | +600 | 13 | 18 | 18.9 | 16.6 |
| Trevor Penning | +600 | 25 | 21 | 18.1 | 21.4 |
| Treylon Burks | +1200 | 26 | 22 | 22.4 | 23.5 |
| Desmond Ridder | +1200 | 36 | 37 | 30.2 | 34.4 |
| Chris Olave | +1200 | 17 | 16 | 19.1 | 17.4 |
| George Karlaftis | +1400 | 24 | 20 | 22 | 22.0 |
| Matt Corral | +1400 | 34 | 33 | 27.5 | 31.5 |
| Andrew Booth | +1400 | 29 | 23 | 24.8 | 25.6 |
| Daxton Hill | +1400 | 23 | 30 | 29 | 27.3 |
| Tyler Linderbaum | +2000 | 18 | 24 | 26.5 | 22.8 |
| Sam Howell | +2000 | 50 | 55 | 44.1 | 49.7 |
| Nakobe Dean | +3000 | 12 | 27 | 27.6 | 22.2 |
| David Ojabo | +10000 | 30 | 32 | 30.3 | 30.8 |
Tied at the top of the odds board here are Ahmad Gardner (a cornerback from Cincinnati) and Kayvon Thibodeaux (an edge rusher from Oregon).
Gardner's consensus big board rank at NFL Mock Draft Database is 6th overall, ESPN's player rank system has him 5th (though draft analyst Todd McShay puts him 10th and Mel Kiper Jr. has him 2nd in his mock), and Grinding the Mocks projects an expected draft position of 6.5. There's not quite enough value in that to lean on.
Once again, Thibodeaux rates as a profitable bet with his high expected draft position of 4.7. Now that his top-five odds are down to -250 from -160, we can feel pretty good laying a top-10 bet at -1000.
More reasonable odds exist for Liberty quarterback Malik Willis (-115). Those odds imply a 53.5% top-10 pick probability. ESPN's simulations anticipate roughly coinflip odds he'll be available after pick 10. My model gives him a 58.1% chance to be a top-10 pick. The 35 most recent mocks at NFL Mock Draft Database have Willis going in the top 10 at a 60.0% clip.
I'll jump ahead to Pitt quarterback Kenny Pickett (+175), who is mocked often to the Carolina Panthers at sixth overall. In the 35 most recent mocks at NFL Mock Draft Database, Pickett is a top-10 option at a 37.1% clip, besting his implied odds of 36.4%.
Notre Dame safety Kyle Hamilton (+100) is even money to be a top-10 pick. Though the big boards seem to like him plenty, he's in the thick of an uncertain cluster at the back end of the top 10. That gives him an expected draft position of 11.7, but with the high peak ratings (some mock drafters have him as high as second overall), he's worth a lean if you're looking to avoid long-shots in this market (which I am; the top-10 has some variance but not enough to throw too many darts).
While Thibodeau, Willis, and Hamilton make the most sense, if you are hoping for a top-10 flier pick, the best value looks to be Ohio State receiver Chris Olave (+1200). Despite an expected draft position of 19.1, Olave peaks at 7th overall in some mocks. The odds imply just a 7.7% top-10 pick rate. He's pretty solidified as a mid-round pick but has enough juice to chase if you're inclined.
