A Perfect Landing Spot: What Christian Watson Can Bring to the Packers
The Green Bay Packers finally drafted a wide receiver.
It wasn't in the first round, but they moved up to the second pick of the second round to secure Christian Watson.
From North Dakota State, Watson -- who is 6-foot-4 and 208 pounds -- rates in the 89th percentile in college dominator rating (44.0%), per PlayerProfiler, so while he never had more than 801 receiving yards in a season, he did well given the context of the offense he was in.
At the combine, Watson put on a show by running a 4.36 40-yard dash. That clip alone rates in the 96th percentile, but when you factor in Watson's size, his speed score slots into the 98th percentile. He also ranked in the 94th percentile in burst score and 96th percentile in catch radius.
What should we expect from Watson with Green Bay?
Player Comparisons
numberFire's Brandon Gdula breaks down Watson's profile and gives a top comparison.
Christian Watson → Denzel Mims@gdula13 sees Watson as a solid WR3 with potential upside for the Packers :thinking_face:#GoPackGo | #NFLDraft pic.twitter.com/Jo4ge1lVCV
— FanDuel (@FanDuel) April 29, 2022
Gdula's draft database has found these 10 prior prospects to have the most similar statistical profiles to Watson’s. Keep in mind that these are based not on play style or traits but age, athleticism, draft equity, experience, efficiency, and production.
| Rank | Christian Watson Profile Comparisons | Similarity |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Denzel Mims | 91.6% |
| 2 | Sidney Rice | 90.4% |
| 3 | DJ Chark | 88.0% |
| 4 | Michael Thomas | 88.0% |
| 5 | Rueben Randle | 87.5% |
| 6 | Stephen Hill | 87.4% |
| 7 | AJ Green | 87.1% |
| 8 | Tamorrion Terry | 86.8% |
| 9 | J'Mon Moore | 86.4% |
| 10 | Jordy Nelson | 86.1% |
Gdula's Take: Watson has a weird profile, given his good size and production but small-school status. With the Packers, though, he should see more than enough volume. Notable Packers J'Mon Moore and Jordy Nelson are on the bottom end of his comp list.
Christian Watson's 2022 Fantasy Football Projection
Gdula’s initial projections for Watson include 83 targets, 53 catches, 689 yards, and 4.0 touchdowns, making him the WR61 for the season.
Watson has the traits to be a big-time producer if he clicks with Aaron Rodgers, making this an exciting landing spot for the small-school player.
On FanDuel Sportsbook, the Packers are listed at +1100 to win the Super Bowl and -180 to win the NFC North, and they have a win total projection of 11.5 on FOX Bet.
