NFL Draft Betting: Should We Bet the Chalk in the First-Round Pick Market?
There are a ton of ways to bet the NFL Draft at FanDuel Sportsbook this year, including some first-round pick odds for 48 players.
I aggregated some rankings and projected out odds for each player listed in order to find out where value exists.
Where might there be betting value? Let's take a look.
Rankings in the table refer to ESPN's Best Player Available rankings (ESPN), NFL Mock Draft Database's Consensus Big Board rankings (MDD), and Grinding the Mocks' expected draft position (GTM).
| Player | FD Sportsbook |
ESPN | MDD | GTM | Avg |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trevor Penning | -700 | 25 | 21 | 16.4 | 20.8 |
| Treylon Burks | -500 | 26 | 22 | 27.7 | 25.2 |
| Trent McDuffie | -500 | 14 | 19 | 16.8 | 16.6 |
| Zion Johnson | -300 | 33 | 28 | 23.1 | 28.0 |
| Devonte Wyatt | -300 | 20 | 25 | 29.6 | 24.9 |
| Nakobe Dean | -300 | 12 | 27 | 31.2 | 23.4 |
| Kenyon Green | -250 | 27 | 26 | 24.8 | 25.9 |
| Andrew Booth | -180 | 29 | 23 | 23.8 | 25.3 |
| Daxton Hill | -175 | 23 | 29 | 29.2 | 27.1 |
| Desmond Ridder | -135 | 36 | 36 | 30.2 | 34.1 |
| Jahan Dotson | -135 | 28 | 31 | 31 | 30.0 |
| Matt Corral | -135 | 34 | 33 | 37.1 | 34.7 |
| Boye Mafe | -135 | 32 | 35 | 37.1 | 34.7 |
| Logan Hall | -115 | 40 | 43 | 54.2 | 45.7 |
| Lewis Cine | -115 | 52 | 34 | 36.1 | 40.7 |
| Arnold Ebiketie | -115 | 38 | 38 | 36.1 | 37.4 |
| Christian Watson | -115 | 45 | 49 | 33.1 | 42.4 |
| Kyler Gordon | -115 | 31 | 40 | 34.7 | 35.2 |
| Tyler Smith | +100 | 58 | 47 | 30.3 | 45.1 |
| Sam Howell | +105 | 50 | 54 | 45.8 | 49.9 |
| Travis Jones | +125 | 39 | 45 | 44.7 | 42.9 |
| George Pickens | +120 | 57 | 46 | 38.3 | 47.1 |
| Breece Hall | +150 | 46 | 42 | 48.7 | 45.6 |
| David Ojabo | +150 | 30 | 32 | 43.3 | 35.1 |
| Skyy Moore | +150 | 42 | 48 | 51.6 | 47.2 |
| Roger McCreary | +150 | 54 | 37 | 39.4 | 43.5 |
| Kaiir Elam | +150 | 47 | 30 | 30.4 | 35.8 |
| Bernhard Raimann | +150 | 43 | 44 | 31.7 | 39.6 |
| Daniel Faalele | +200 | 60 | 59 | 62.9 | 60.6 |
| Quay Walker | +200 | 35 | 56 | 42.6 | 44.5 |
| Drake Jackson | +250 | 61 | 63 | 52.6 | 58.9 |
| Jaquan Brisker | +250 | 66 | 51 | 53.8 | 56.9 |
| Jalen Pitre | +350 | 41 | 41 | 51.2 | 44.4 |
| DeMarvin Leal | +350 | 62 | 55 | 49.8 | 55.6 |
| Tariq Woolen | +350 | 75 | 67 | 56.7 | 66.2 |
| Kenneth Walker | +350 | 44 | 39 | 56.8 | 46.6 |
| Troy Andersen | +350 | 70 | 73 | 85.5 | 76.2 |
| Christian Harris | +400 | 37 | 52 | 61.6 | 50.2 |
| Chad Muma | +400 | 65 | 60 | 60.6 | 61.9 |
| Trey McBride | +450 | 59 | 50 | 57.3 | 55.4 |
| Justyn Ross | +600 | 112 | 115 | 78.9 | 102.0 |
| Greg Dulcich | +600 | 79 | 77 | 77.1 | 77.7 |
| Perrion Winfrey | +600 | 51 | 53 | 63.1 | 55.7 |
| Isaiah Spiller | +600 | 108 | 62 | 81.9 | 84.0 |
| Jalen Tolbert | +600 | 83 | 80 | 77 | 80.0 |
| Abraham Lucas | +600 | 55 | 71 | 65.7 | 63.9 |
| Darian Kinnard | +600 | 107 | 66 | 60.4 | 77.8 |
| Carson Strong | +800 | 93 | 86 | 99 | 92.7 |
The six players listed with odds of -300 or shorter are actually rating out as good value bets to be first-rounders, given the strong ranks across the board.
I know that's not as shiny as listing off some long shots here, but the data shows value on Northern Iowa offensive tackle Trevor Penning (-700), Arkansas receiver Treylon Burks (-500), Washington cornerback Trent McDuffie (-500), Boston College Eagles guard Zion Johnson (-300), Georgia defensive tackle Devonte Wyatt (-300), and Georgia linebacker Nakobe Dean (-300).
We also see some extended value on Clemson cornerback Andrew Booth Jr. (-180) and Texas A&M guard Kenyon Green. So, the numbers say to go with the chalk on these borderline first-round picks. Booth's average rank (based on the table above) of 25.3 is sixth-best among those with first-round pick odds. Green (25.9) is seventh.
What if we want some options at longer odds?
Florida cornerback Kaiir Elam (+150) rates out at 30.4 in expected draft position at Grinding the Mocks, and Michigan edge rusher David Ojabo (+150) are the top plus-money options I'm seeing. Elam has a peak big board ranking of 10th overall, and Ojabo's peak is 6th overall.
It's not a market where I'm chasing darts, given how the odds land.
