NBA

NBA Betting Guide for Friday 4/29/22: Is the Over the Best Bet for Game 6?

Brandon Gdula  —  @gdula13 Apr 29th, 2022
The odds have the Timberwolves as slight home underdogs in Game 6 against the Grizzlies. Can they cover? Or should we be focusing on the total instead?

Betting on the NBA can get a little overwhelming throughout the season because there are games every day, and there's just a lot to track throughout the season and entering every night -- spreads, over/unders, injuries, and so on.

But you can rely on numberFire to help. We have a detailed betting algorithm that projects out games to see how often certain betting lines hit. You can also track spread bet percentages at NBA odds.

Where do our algorithm, our power rankings, and the betting trends identify value in tonight's games? (All odds from NBA odds.)

Memphis Grizzlies at Minnesota Timberwolves

Series
- Memphis Grizzlies up 3-2

Main Algorithm Picks
- Over 229.0 (2 stars)
- Minnesota Timberwolves Spread (+1.5, 1 star)

Straight up, our model at numberFire gives the Grizzlies a 53.1% chance to close out the series tonight, a tight gap that fits the narrative of the 1.5-point spread in their favor.

But is it enough of a win chance to cover? The algo says no and views Minnesota +1.5 as a one-star lean (i.e. a one-unit bet recommendation). Our model likes Minnesota to cover with a 52.8% probability, which is why it's just a small suggestion.

The Timberwolves have a 60.0% home cover rate since the All-Star break, and the Grizzlies have covered in just 33.3% of road games since the break.

The more preferred route, however, is the over (229.0). Our model anticipates a 59.7% over rate, which leads to an expected return of 13.9%.

We're projecting a final score that totals 234.3 points. Yes, the over is 2-3 in the series and has fallen shy by an average of 11.1 points, but these two teams are each top-five in adjusted points per game since the break. My model figures a total of 234.3, as well, so it also likes the over.

These two teams also rank first and second in shot quality generated in the playoffs (56.0% for each). However, they've underperformed, both falling below a 53.0% effective field goal percentage. That indicates some regression coming soon, and we can expect that to lead to points tonight.