3 NFL Player Prop Bets for Week 1

Player props can be useful in a variety of ways, from taking advantage of them straight up within the betting market to measuring a player's potential to produce in daily fantasy football.

Here we'll focus on utilizing our projections and a slew of other tools and simulations to help make money betting player props. For this article, we are using the odds provided at FanDuel Sportsbook to pinpoint spots where value can be had this week.

The prop-betting experience on FanDuel Sportsbook is getting even more fun. You can track your player props with real-time updates and place in-game props with ease.

Each and every week I'll be bringing separate prop bets articles for Monday Night Football, Thursday Night Football, and the Sunday main slate.

Note: Betting lines and our player projections may change after this article is published.

Keenan Allen Over 68.5 Receiving Yards (-114)

With a big 52.5-point over/under, there should be plenty of scoring and offense when the Las Vegas Raiders visit the Los Angeles Chargers on Sunday.

Games with high totals are going to be a theme throughout the season since the offensive expectation in those games is very high. When looking at overs, we want to target game environments that are conducive to offense and racking up yards. That is what we have with the Raiders taking on the Chargers, and it also helps that it comes with a close 3.5-point spread.

The Chargers have a 28.00 implied team total, which is the second-highest on Sunday's slate. They are expected to move the ball on offense, and that means plenty of yards.

Keenan Allen's receiving prop is sitting at 68.5 yards, and I'm going with the over. Let's break everything down.

Last season, Allen held a 25.04% target share in the Chargers' offense, a level he should be around this season. That led to him posting more than 68.5 yards nine times last season, as he was one of the most consistent receivers in the league. Using our in-house metric, he ended the year with 108.83 Reception Net Expected Points (NEP), which was the ninth-highest in the league.

We also saw the Chargers as a very pass-heavy offense, clocking in with a 62.50% pass rate, which was the fifth-highest in the league. With Justin Herbert at the helm, they are going to be pushing the ball through the air, putting the wide receivers in a great spot to rack up plenty of yards.

Taking on the Raiders is a favorable matchup, as their secondary is ranked 29th, according to PFF.

Add up all this, and it's a great spot for Allen to hit the over on his receiving prop and get the season started in a big way.

A.J. Brown Any Time Touchdown (+145)

For an any-time touchdown prop, A.J. Brown has great odds this week.

The Philadelphia Eagles have a 26.00 implied team total and are taking on the Detroit Lions in a game with a 48.5 over/under and 3.5-point spread. Again, games with high totals and close spreads are great spots to look for player props.

Brown was traded to the Eagles in the offseason to unite with long-time friend Jalen Hurts. Whether you want to buy into that narrative is one thing, but between the matchup and Brown's skill, this is a great prop.

The Lions come in with the 25th-ranked secondary, according to PFF, and were in the bottom half of the league for the most touchdowns (17) and yards allowed (2,746) to wide receivers last season. Until something dramatically changes this season, the Lions are going to be a team to target for wide receiver props.

Last season, Brown finished with 0.77 Reception NEP per target, which was the 12th-best in the league among receivers with at least 100 targets. Brown should be able to put that on display against the Lions, and the +145 odds are too good to pass up.

Saquon Barkley Over 88.5 Rushing + Receiving Yards (-114)

With plenty of involvement in the offense, I'm turning to a Saquon Barkley prop this week.

As noted above, I like to target games with high totals and tight spreads. However, there are exceptions. One of those exceptions would be players with high usage rates within their offenses, even if the offense isn't expected to score a ton of points.

That is what we have with Barkley, who is in line to see plenty of touches for the New York Giants, a team carrying a very modest 19.00 implied team total. The Giants are taking on the Tennessee Titans, who are 5.5-point home favorites with a game total set at 43.5 points.

There's no doubt the team total could be better, but Barkley is the first and best option in the Giants' offense. Barkley comes in projected for 69.62 rushing yards and 26.45 receiving yards, per our model, for a combined total of 96.07 yards. With no Giants receiver projected for more than 50 yards, Barkley should be in line for 20-plus touches and plenty of chances to pile up yards.

It's also encouraging to see reports of Barkley looking great in training camp -- hopefully a sign he can return to the level of production he showed in 2018 and 2019.