Monday Night Football Betting: Will We See a Shootout Between the Vikings and Eagles?
The second game of our Monday Night combo pack sees two teams coming off of Week 1 victories, with the Minnesota Vikings traveling to Philly to take on the Eagles.
Minnesota notched an impressive win over Green Bay Packers, and the Eagles held on to topple a feisty Detroit Lions team.
Here is how numberFire ranks each team heading into tonight’s game using our nERD metric and Net Expected Points (NEP):
| Team | nERD | nERD Rank | Rush Off NEP Rank | Pass Off NEP Rank | Rush Def NEP Rank | Pass Def NEP Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Philadelphia Eagles | 1.24 | 13 | 1 | 10 | 31 | 17 |
| Minnesota Vikings | 1.83 | 9 | 12 | 6 | 23 | 6 |
Inside the Standard Bets
Our model likes the Eagles -- both to win and to cover. We have them winning outright 62.4% of the time, and we project them to cover the 2.5-point spread 57.6% of the time. At FanDuel Sportsbook, the Eagles' moneyline odds are -136, which comes out to an implied probability of 57.6%, and their odds to cover the spread are at the typical -110 (52.4%).
Our model finds enough value in both the spread and moneyline wagers on Philadelphia to make each a one-star bet.
The point total line for this matchup sits at lofty 50.5 points, but our model sees the over/under as essentially a coin flip.
Player Prop Value Bets
Last season, the smart bet was to always take the over on Cooper Kupp's yardage prop. It seems that may be Justin Jefferson this year.
Our player projections model is thinking Jefferson will have another fantastic game, with his receiving projection at 103.6 yards, which is above his receiving prop line of 96.5 yards.
Jalen Hurts had a monster game on the ground last week, toting the rock 17 times for 90 yards. Our model is projecting a pretty big drop-off tonight as we forecast him to have only 44.1 rushing yards. With his rushing yards line at 50.5 yards, take the under here.
Final Notes
The over is 11-7 for both the Vikings and Eagles since the start of the 2021 season. Looking at only Philly's home games, the over is 6-2 in that stretch. If you take the Vikings away games over that span, the over is 7-2.
If you feel bad about betting the under from the first game, hammering this over is the palette cleanser you're looking for.
