3 Daily Fantasy Football Players to Avoid in Week 6
We have a lot of pieces on numberFire geared toward helping you figure out which players you should roster in your DFS contests on FanDuel, but an important aspect of the DFS process is figuring out who you shouldn't play.
Narrowing down your list of potential plays by avoiding those who are destined to underwhelm can go a long way toward helping you create winning lineups.
Inevitably, some of the players I feature in this article will blow up and pop for a big game, but that comes with the territory of doing a piece like this one -- unless I'm going to tell you to avoid playing dudes who aren't on anyone's radar. I'm trying to avoid that. I want this piece to be useful.
Here are some players I'm fading this week.
Tom Brady, QB, Buccaneers
FanDuel Salary: $7,500
My quarterback pool is a tight one this week, and it doesn't include Tom Brady.
The four signal-callers I'm locked in on are Patrick Mahomes, Josh Allen, Lamar Jackson and Kyler Murray. All four of those guys offer rushing upside Brady can't touch, and their games shape up as better fantasy environments than Brady's clash with the Pittsburgh Steelers.
Allen and Mahomes face each other in the slate's go-to fantasy spot, a matchup that boasts a 53.5-point total and 2.5-point spread. That's the dream DFS environment. Murray is in the slate's other top fantasy matchup as the Arizona Cardinals-Seattle Seahawks game has a 50.5-point total and 3.0-point spread. Lamar's game at the Giants isn't as great as those (44.5-point total and 6.0-point spread), but Lamar is a DFS unicorn who has run for at least 58 yards in four of five games and is playable every single week.
Brady, meanwhile, is an 8.5-point favorite in a game with a 44.5-point total. I'm not doubting he can shred the Steelers, even in Pittsburgh. He probably will. But, with Brady offering nothing as a runner, he just doesn't have the sky-high upside the four aforementioned quarterbacks do, and he doesn't have as many avenues to a big game as they do. Brady's thrown 52 passes in each of the last two weeks, and it's gotten him FanDuel outputs of 19.74 and 25.40 points. Brady's only path to 25-plus points is massive volume and three or four scores.
As of now, draft percentage projections around the industry have Brady being close to as popular as every quarterback outside of Allen. Maybe that'll change as we get closer to lock, but if it holds true, that's another reason to stay away from TB12. I could kind of get on board with throwing some darts at Brady if he was going totally overlooked. As of now, he's not.
On a slate where we should get a couple of through-the-roof scores from the elite DFS quarterbacks, Brady isn't worth the salary savings. Find the coin for Mahomes, Allen, Lamar, or Kyler.
Joe Mixon, RB, Bengals
FanDuel Salary: $7,800
Joe Mixon has seen really good volume this year. His 96 carries are the fourth-most in the NFL, and he's made at least three receptions in all five games. That kind of volume necessitates that he's at least on our radar every week. But I'm not going here this week in Mixon's date with the New Orleans Saints.
A big part of the reason I'm fading Mixon is the matchup. The Saints have long been a brutally tough run D, and this year is no different as New Orleans is permitting just 17.7 FanDuel points per game to running backs (the ninth-fewest).
On top of that, the Cincinnati Bengals have been horrible at running the ball. Our schedule-adjusted metrics have them as the third-worst rushing attack. Despite the hefty volume, Mixon hasn't topped 82 rushing yards in a game and is averaging a pitiful 3.1 yards per carry.
This slate is a great one for value backs, with Eno Benjamin ($6,300), Kenneth Walker III ($6,500), Rhamondre Stevenson ($7,500), Jeff Wilson ($7,200), and Raheem Mostert ($6,500) all projecting well. That works out well on a slate where we want to drop hefty salary at quarterback and on the best pass-game pieces in the KC-Bills showdown.
Mixon projects similarly to those value backs, has a higher salary, is in a blah game environment (43.5-point total), and has a tough matchup. No thanks.
George Kittle, TE, 49ers
FanDuel Salary: $5,700
If you told me prior to the year that George Kittle would be $5,700 in a matchup with the Atlanta Falcons, I would've been intrigued. But seeing Kittle's role so far this season, I'm not all that interested.
Kittle has played only three games, so we're dealing with a small sample size. But in those three games, Kittle has seen a meh 18% target share with an 11% air yards share. Part of the appeal for Kittle in past years was that he was one of the few tight ends who could make big plays. The downfield looks haven't been there yet in 2022.
And this is actually a good slate for tight ends -- about as good as we'll get. We have Travis Kelce ($8,300) and Mark Andrews ($7,800), the big two at the position. We've also got Tyler Higbee ($6,200) in a soft matchup with the Carolina Panthers, and Zach Ertz ($6,000) against Seattle. Both are at modest salaries.
You can make a game-theory case for Kittle as he'll probably be contrarian, and the San Francisco 49ers do have an appealing 25.0-point implied total. But, with other good options at the position, I'll pass on Kittle and will likely get my San Fran exposure via Jeff Wilson or Deebo Samuel ($7,600).
